Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Flags of Iran, Hezbollah, and Lebanon are seen at a Quds Day celebration in Tehran - source: Reuters

Beyond Disarmament: How the IRGC Keeps Hezbollah in Power Despite Its Military Losses

Although disarming the group is still crucial, negotiators need to realize that they will never really break Hezbollah’s hold on Lebanon so long as it retains Iranian support and key political allies and government posts in Beirut.

May 29, 2026

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Hanin Ghaddar

The carrier U.S.S. Dwight Eisenhower at sea - source: Department of Defense

Articles & Testimony

Is Iran America’s Suez Crisis? Not to Xi Jinping

Some may read Xi’s approach as a strategy to make America expend its strength far from Chinese shores, but Beijing increasingly looks more like a regional power than a global superpower.

May 26, 2026

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Michael Singh

Turkish president Erdogan at NATO headquarters in Brussels

Brief Analysis

Turkey’s Limited Role in the Iran War

Power parity informs the view from Ankara, which has a strong interest in preventing Iran from going nuclear or alternatively falling into chaos—even as the war’s outcome will be largely outside Turkish control.

May 26, 2026

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Soner Cagaptay

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Drone Strategy (Part 2): Preventing Postwar Rebuilding and Advancements

Tehran’s drone ecosystem has been hit hard, but not at its roots—with help from Russia and China, the regime could restore many of the program’s capabilities within months while steadily working toward more dangerous next-generation models.

May 22, 2026

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Farzin Nadimi

A Shahed-136 drone in a military parade in Tehran - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Drone Strategy (Part 1): Wartime Performance and Adaptations

The war has shown that Iran’s one-way attack drones are highly adaptable tools of coercion and military effect, able to continue imposing costs across the Gulf region and beyond even after heavy losses.

May 22, 2026

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Farzin Nadimi

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Brief Analysis

Shifting from Diplomatic Urgency to Strategic Patience on Iran

For decades, Tehran has repeatedly exploited Western diplomatic urgency to extract concessions, buy time, and refill its coffers; the answer is to turn time itself against the increasingly vulnerable regime.

May 19, 2026

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Zohar Palti

A bread seller in Cairo walks past a sign promoting President Sisi - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Is Egypt the Biggest Loser of the Iran War?

Cairo’s economic mismanagement has increased the country’s reliance on Gulf largesse, but that spigot may soon run dry for diplomatic and financial reasons.

May 18, 2026

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David Schenker

USS Boxer leads U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz - source: Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

How to Accomplish U.S. Objectives in Iran

An agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade could make it easier to ultimately address more complex issues such as Iran’s uranium stockpile, missile program, and support for proxies.

May 14, 2026

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

For Iranians to Rise Up, a Clear Path for Regime Defectors Is Needed

Neither the United States nor Israel has offered the concrete incentives needed to spur high-level defections from the security, political, and clerical establishments—a crucial precondition for regime change.

May 13, 2026

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Holly Dagres

Chinese president Xi walks with U.S. president Trump in Beijing in 2017 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Trump’s China Trip: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

The first presidential visit to China in nearly a decade will cover trade, technology, and a range of other bilateral topics, including frank conversations on Middle East subjects such as Beijing’s support to Iran and the wider global repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.

May 13, 2026

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Grant Rumley
Henry Tugendhat
Elizabeth Dent
Anna Borshchevskaya
Souhire Medini

Articles & Testimony

Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland

Although the threat may be somewhat diminished by the damage inflicted on Tehran’s security and intelligence agencies, the regime will reconstitute those capabilities over time and may calculate that the benefits of attacking highly vulnerable targets inside the United States outweigh the risks.

May 6, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Brief Analysis

Deniable, Disposable, Disruptive: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Europe Demands a Proactive Response

The low-sophistication, high-volume approach used in wartime attacks claimed by the front group HAYI has exposed critical vulnerabilities in Western efforts to harden soft targets, curb online recruitment, and protect Jewish communities amid spillover from the Middle East.

May 4, 2026

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Adrian Shtuni

The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?

The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.

May 4, 2026

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Michael Sobolik
Grant Rumley

Screenshot from MarineTraffic showing the route of the Idemitsu Maru.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn

Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure, so authorities cannot expect to reverse this shift quickly even if the war ends soon.

May 1, 2026

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Noam Raydan

Iranians shop in a Tehran market ahead of Nowruz celelbrations in 2024 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Self-Destruct Mode: Why Government Incompetence Means Even Immediate Peace with the U.S. Would Not Save Iran

Tehran’s ongoing failures in critical areas such as fiscal responsibility, energy, and infrastructure repair are doing even more damage to the country’s economic position than the war itself.

Apr 30, 2026

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Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Let Iran Defeat Itself

Bailing out the regime’s new batch of hardline leaders would only help them remain a regional menace, so Washington should be very selective about whatever peace deal it signs, leaving room for the Iranian people to seek change themselves.

Apr 28, 2026

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Richard Nephew

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi greets Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi in Beijing in March 2025 - source: Reuters

Video

Brief Analysis

Wartime Support to Iran: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Three experts explore the regional and global implications of Russian and Chinese support for Tehran, including how much this assistance actually affects U.S. efforts to weaken the regime’s capabilities and bring the crisis to an end.

Apr 24, 2026

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Hasan Alhasan
Nicole Grajewski
Matthew Tavares

A British sailor salutes the Royal Navy flag - source: Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

Encouraging European Military Efforts to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Although the new European-led military initiative signals a divergence from the current U.S. approach, Washington could still harness Paris and London’s ability to mobilize international action on the shared goal of preventing Tehran from flexing its leverage over global energy markets.

Apr 24, 2026

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Souhire Medini

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Support for Russia and Lessons Learned from Ukraine

By taking urgent steps to institutionalize the wartime partnerships formed with (and between) Ukraine, the Gulf states, and Syria, Congress can strike heavy long-term blows against hostile Russian influence in the Middle East.

Apr 21, 2026

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Articles & Testimony

He Dreamed of Regime Change

The diplomat Uri Lubrani was renowned for his persistent assertion that such an outcome in Iran was not only feasible but inevitable.

Apr 17, 2026

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Martin Kramer

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.