All Policy Analysis by Simon Henderson

The conference agenda extends well beyond climate issues, with implications for regional rivalries, U.S.-Emirati relations, and Israeli wartime diplomacy.

As Iran-backed proxies continue targeting Israeli and U.S. interests, mounting public anger in the Gulf states might spur leaders to announce production cuts at this week’s cartel meeting.

The post-attack shutdown of the Tamar gas field had highlighted the vulnerability of Israel’s energy infrastructure.

The Gulf state is using its close relationship with Hamas to help secure the release of Gaza hostages, but these same relations could wind up damaging its political and military ties with the United States.

As the IDF deals with residual infiltrators in the south, it is already clear that the lessons of the surprise 1973 war need updating.

Official statements at the latest IAEA meeting are effectively a concession in the kingdom’s negotiating stance on normalization with Israel.

Because the Saudis and other oil players hold more leverage than the administration may care to admit, prices could balloon once again.

Riyadh’s reported price for peace with Israel includes a civil nuclear program, but any such deal will require Washington to carefully balance multiple diplomatic, legal, and proliferation concerns.

Iran’s potential push for a nuclear device and the region’s broader proliferation challenges cast a shadow over the new summer blockbuster.

The cartel’s idea of price stability doesn’t match Washington’s, nor will it help international efforts to isolate Russia.

With Saudi princes publicly warning oil traders and U.S.-Chinese economic factors coming to a head, the markets may be headed for further volatility.

Activity in Cyprus and Lebanon could have significant implications for regional energy and diplomacy.

Years of quiet and fairly lucrative oil trading between the Kurds and Israel are now being threatened by messy legal disputes involving Baghdad and Turkey.

One hopes that the U.S. intelligence community picked up all the chatter between oil producers even if energy analysts and the news media did not.

A series of rapid announcements has indicated the Emirati leader’s vision for the future of Abu Dhabi and the rest of the UAE.

A joint BP/UAE takeover bid for Israel’s NewMed Energy reflects increasing demand for East Mediterranean gas and confidence that there is more to be found.

The surprise development may have more to do with resolving the Yemen war than rebuking the Biden administration, but the full implications will take time to register.

The Biden administration’s mixed messages about the significance of new enrichment revelations will make it more difficult to decide next steps.

A deal would leave the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in control but allow the Saudis to disengage from a costly and intractable war, potentially opening up further diplomatic possibilities.

The option, which would take several years to develop, would reduce or even remove the current need to export gas via Egypt.