All Policy Analysis by فرزین ندیمی

Tehran has several means of putting military and economic pressure on the Iraqi Kurds following the independence referendum, but taking action on its recent warnings could widen Kurdish discontent at home.

Gathering IRGC frustrations over liberal domestic trends could eventually prompt dramatic intervention, with troubling regional consequences for the United States and its allies.

To meet emerging threats and ensure its continued relevance, the Iranian army is seeking to become a quick-reaction force, but institutional and budgetary constraints could still prevent dramatic change.

The reported failure of the July 27 launch offers little solace to Western observers, since it likely anticipates future attempts as well as the potential for more-advanced technologies.

The retaliatory attacks against alleged Islamic State facilities in eastern Syria apparently failed to hit any of their intended targets, undermining Iranian deterrence and raising questions about the effectiveness of Iran's missile force.

Considering the current regional situation, the country's first serious terrorist attacks in many years could have major implications for Tehran's policies at home and abroad.

The outcome is unlikely to bring much change to Tehran's foreign and security policy, but it will reveal how stable the Iranian system is when the powerful hardliners are decisively rejected by voters.

While some international sanctions against Iranian civil aviation have been lifted, Tehran's insistence on using Mahan Air and other companies to send personnel and weapons to Syria may jeopardize the industry's future.

The Syria war will likely spur Tehran to increase the role of armor in its future military planning, but it is still years away from developing an advanced tank force of its own.

Tehran seems eager to extend the range and capabilities of its antiship missiles, and just as eager to prevent the West from monitoring its progress toward that end, even at the risk of escalating naval tensions.

If this and other recent air defense developments bear fruit, Iran might soon become self-sufficient in such technology and could even begin offering it for export.

The restrained nature of this month's military demonstration could signal a combination of dynamics in Tehran: a reaction to the Trump administration's arrival, a shift in the regime's threat assessments, or continued internal political maneuvering.

Regardless of how the details surrounding Sunday's launch shake out, it was an unhelpful move at a time when the Trump administration is determining its policy toward Iran's missile program and broader regional behavior.

General Masjedi reportedly has a long track record of overseeing deadly anticoalition operations and making threatening statements against Israel and other U.S. allies, so his appointment to the embassy in Baghdad is highly troubling.

While Iran's air defenses are a central element of its deterrent capabilities, newly arrived long-range mobile systems like the S-300 could also enable it to constrain the air forces of its neighbors over their own sovereign territory, thereby enhancing Tehran's ability to intimidate and coerce these neighbors.

In addition to expanding and professionalizing their traditional roles at home, Basij paramilitary forces are poised to assume a larger share of the fighting in Syria alongside Iran's foreign militia proxies.

Amid uncertainties about the incoming U.S. administration's approach to the Middle East and the nuclear deal, Tehran and Beijing appear to be entering a new era in their strategic partnership, including the potential transfer of advanced weapon systems down the road.

Along with Iran's heightened anti-American rhetoric and local naval deployments, the recent Houthi missile attacks against U.S. vessels raise fears that Tehran's clients may take the war into a new and more dangerous phase.

Tehran continues to boast about military capabilities that bolster deterrence, but ambiguities in its definition of national interests raise concerns about how it will wield its new offensive weapons and increasingly assertive policies.

The IRGC has sought to prove the resilience and technological prowess of its new UAVs by displaying them next to recovered models from other countries, but it may also be trying to mask key shortcomings.