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ایران

Policy Analysis on ایران

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Brief Analysis
Iran's Modest Economic Changes Since JCPOA Implementation
Deeply entrenched interests are impeding reform in Iran, limiting the economy to only modest progress even with sanctions relief.
۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Preserving the JCPOA Means Sending Iran the Right Deterrent Signals
Not enough is being done to convince Tehran that seeking nuclear weapons down the road will lead to forceful consequences, so the next administration will need to put forth a tougher declaratory policy on the issue while bolstering the deal's near-term benefits.
۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Dennis Ross
TWI Series on the JCPOA at One Year
Assess how the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement with Iran, has affected various U.S. interests one year after its announcement on July 14, 2015.
۶ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
  • Dennis Ross
  • Patrick Clawson
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Simon Henderson
  • Mehdi Khalaji
  • Olivier Decottignies
  • Katherine Bauer
  • Michael Herzog
Brief Analysis
The JCPOA'S Regional Impact: Sinking Confidence in the U.S. Balancing Role
Left to their own devices and faced with an Iran on the march in multiple theaters, regional states have responded to the deal in an incoherent and dangerous fashion.
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
Who Is Iran's New Armed Forces Chief of Staff?
The appointment of one of the IRGC's youngest generals can be seen as a sign of the Guards' growing primacy in future Iranian military thinking, and perhaps an urgent push toward improving interoperability between often-competing armed services.
۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Regional Charm Offensive: Motives and Prospects
After years of foreign policy setbacks, Ankara is trying to mend fences with Israel, Egypt, Iran, and Russia, and the potential implications for the United States are mostly beneficial -- assuming the Turks can actually pull it off.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
High Noon in Bahrain: Will Tehran Blink First?
Bahrain's action against a high-profile Shiite figure has brought long-simmering tensions with Iran to a boil, and extremists could feel empowered to further escalate the crisis even if officials turn down the dial.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Takfiris in Tehran: The Sectarian Face of Iranian Counterterrorism
While the severity of the Sunni extremist threat inside Iran is debatable, the regime's recent operations against suspected terrorists highlight its pattern of exploiting sectarian sentiment to bolster its regional adventurism.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Little Change Expected in Upcoming FATF Statement on Iran
The organization's forthcoming statement will likely underline the fact that Iran's recent efforts are only the first steps toward complying with international standards.
۲۳ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Katherine Bauer
Brief Analysis
Iran's Parliamentary Speaker Election Is No Step Forward for Rouhani
Ali Larijani's projected victory likely won't help Rouhani, who needs ample support from parliament in order to bolster his chances of winning next year's presidential election.
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
Iran's Air Force Overshadowed by the IRGC
A recent crash highlights the air force's struggles to maintain its readiness and budget at a time when Revolutionary Guard leaders are pushing for a deterrence posture based solely on their own ballistic missile arsenal.
۲۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran's New Assembly Chair Shows Who Really Won the Elections
Despite weeks of reformist spin about the spring election results, the decision to name a notorious hardliner as head of the Experts Assembly shows that Khamenei is intent on making life even more difficult for President Rouhani's camp.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Morphs Into an Expeditionary Force
Funeral notices indicate that Iran has increased its use of IRGC Ground Forces in Syria to offset mounting losses by the elite Qods Force, and this pattern could signal a wider transformation in how the IRGC operates abroad.
۱۲ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Ali Alfoneh
Articles & Testimony
The View from Tehran's Twilight Zone:
Iran's Continued Illicit Finance Activities and Their Implications
In Tehran's alternative reality, there is no risk to doing business in the Islamic Republic because sanctions no longer exist, yet such claims ignore the role that the regime's own actions play in scaring foreign banks away.
۱۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Why Middle Eastern Leaders Are Talking to Putin, Not Obama
Russia is less dominant militarily but more willing to act, and that has changed the dynamics in the region.
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Dennis Ross
In-Depth Reports
U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East
Reflecting broad foreign policy themes dating to World War I, U.S. grand strategy in the Middle East since the Cold War has focused on establishing and managing a global security system to contain and deter outside threats. Given Eurasia's demographic and economic/technical strength, a dominant power or powers arising from
۳ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Possibilities for a Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement
The prospect of warmer Iranian-Turkish ties is manageable so long as the United States maintains the intent and capability to promote regional security, and assuming Ankara continues to balance any such rapprochement with its ties to the West, Israel, and Arab states.
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
One Year After the Nuclear Deal: Is Iran Moderating?
While Western officials should remain true to their longstanding support for human rights and civil liberties in Iran, they should nevertheless be cautious about their ability to shape the country's internal dynamics, focusing instead on influencing its regional and foreign policies through a mixture of pressure and engagement.
۲۹ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
Articles & Testimony
Iran Nuclear Deal: Meeting vs. Exceeding U.S. Obligations
Washington shouldn't rush to resolve issues such as banking restrictions and heavy-water stockpiles without prodding Tehran to take helpful steps of its own.
۲۹ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Misleading Claims About U.S. Barriers to Iran-Europe Financial Ties
Few people understand that Iranian banks do not live up to the standards U.S. agencies require of all foreign financial institutions, and that this shortcoming has nothing to do with the nuclear deal.
۲۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Patrick Clawson

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