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SHAKY CEASEFIRES, PERILOUS AFTERSHOCKS

Screenshot from MarineTraffic showing the route of the Idemitsu Maru.

Maps & Graphics

Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn

Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure, so authorities cannot expect to reverse this shift quickly even if the war ends soon.

May 1, 2026

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Noam Raydan

Let Iran Defeat Itself

Bailing out the regime’s new batch of hardline leaders would only help them remain a regional menace, so Washington should be very selective about whatever peace deal it signs, leaving room for the Iranian people to seek change themselves.

Apr 28, 2026

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Richard Nephew

A British sailor salutes the Royal Navy flag - source: Department of Defense

Encouraging European Military Efforts to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Although the new European-led military initiative signals a divergence from the current U.S. approach, Washington could still harness Paris and London’s ability to mobilize international action on the shared goal of preventing Tehran from flexing its leverage over global energy markets.

Apr 24, 2026

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Souhire Medini

LAF soldiers study a map - source: Lebanese Armed Forces

Lebanon-Israel Talks: Defining Zones of Possible Agreement

With Washington’s help, there is a path forward for Beirut and Jerusalem to agree on something that is more limited than a full ceasefire, and that enables them to launch negotiations to advance both the disarmament of Hezbollah and the achievement of bilateral peace.

Apr 13, 2026

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Robert Satloff

Iranians shop in a Tehran market ahead of Nowruz celelbrations in 2024 - source: Reuters

Self-Destruct Mode: Why Government Incompetence Means Even Immediate Peace with the U.S. Would Not Save Iran

Tehran’s ongoing failures in critical areas such as fiscal responsibility, energy, and infrastructure repair are doing even more damage to the country’s economic position than the war itself.

Apr 30, 2026

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Patrick Clawson

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Institute Expertise on the Iran War and Its Aftermath

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan, The Washington Institute's William Sudhaus Senior Fellow, studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Formerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

Recent Institute Analysis

Palestinain refugees wait for IDF permission to gather their belongings while benig expelled from a camp near Jenin - source: Reuters

Rebuilding West Bank Refugee Camps: A Shared Interest for Palestinians and Israelis

If coordinated properly, reconstructing—and rethinking—the northern camps destroyed during Operation Iron Wall could help improve refugees’ lives, reduce militant activity, and create a rare shared interest and perceptual shift between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Apr 30, 2026

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Neomi Neumann

A UNIFIL peacekeeper on duty in Lebanon - source: United Nations

Lebanon After UNIFIL: Good Riddance, Not a “Vacuum”

Whether the UN and Europe agree to align with a limited, U.S.-led mechanism or insist on their own separate missions, Washington and Jerusalem need to contain and closely coordinate any outside involvement in order to safeguard the core goal of disarming Hezbollah.

Apr 29, 2026

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Assaf Orion

The Collapse of Indefinite Detention in Northeast Syria: Implications Seven Years Later for Syria and Beyond

An in-depth look at the swift and dramatic changes that have occurred in Syria’s vulnerable network of Islamic State detention sites, and why the international community can't just “move on” from the issue.

April 2026

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Devorah Margolin

He Dreamed of Regime Change

The diplomat Uri Lubrani was renowned for his persistent assertion that such an outcome in Iran was not only feasible but inevitable.

Apr 17, 2026

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Martin Kramer

Lebanon's Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry - source: Reuters

Israel-Lebanon Peace: Will Berri Remain a Hindrance?

The two governments have agreed to direct talks that could (and should) turn into a wider U.S.-brokered peace process, but only if officials are prepared to counter potential spoilers like Hezbollah ally Nabih Berri.

Apr 10, 2026

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Hanin Ghaddar

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matthew Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,