SHAKY CEASEFIRES, PERILOUS AFTERSHOCKS

Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland
Although the threat may be somewhat diminished by the damage inflicted on Tehran’s security and intelligence agencies, the regime will reconstitute those capabilities over time and may calculate that the benefits of attacking highly vulnerable targets inside the United States outweigh the risks.
May 6, 2026
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  • Matthew Levitt

Podcast: Will Israel Vote Out Netanyahu? with Gili Cohen and David Horovitz

Israel is scheduled to hold elections later this year, the first elections since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. Veteran Israeli journalists join Decision Points podcast host David Makovsky to preview the campaign and the choices facing Israeli voters that may shape their country and the region for decades to come. 

 

Learn more about the Decision Points podcast.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa. 

 

Access the map.

Institute Expertise on the Iran War and Its Aftermath

Recent Institute Analysis

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The Collapse of Indefinite Detention in Northeast Syria: Implications Seven Years Later for Syria and Beyond
An in-depth look at the swift and dramatic changes that have occurred in Syria’s vulnerable network of Islamic State detention
April 2026
He Dreamed of Regime Change
The diplomat Uri Lubrani was renowned for his persistent assertion that such an outcome in Iran was not only feasible
Apr 17, 2026
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Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.
Maps & Graphics
After Ukraine:
Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East
Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.
Jan 23, 2026
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Matthew Tavares

Interactive Maps

Video: Expert Conversations on the Iran Crisis

Recently in Fikra Forum

Kurdistan Flag
Iran’s Western Frontier: Iranian Kurds Navigate Risk and Opportunity
For the estimated 7 to 15 million Kurds in Iran, the current war represents a narrow window for change, albeit one
Mar 23, 2026
A Sudanese army soldier stands near a bombed-out vehicle outside Khartoum - source: Reuters
Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security
A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong
Jan 22, 2026

Arab Public Opinion 2014 to Today

Fikra Interactive Public Polling Platform Thumbnail
Maps & Graphics
TWI Interactive Polling Platform
Interactive datasets, from 2014 to today
Jun 30, 2022

In Focus: Iran

The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters
Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?
The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.
May 4, 2026
Screenshot from MarineTraffic showing the route of the Idemitsu Maru.
Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn
Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure
May 1, 2026