Putin has been using his position in the region to chip away at Russia’s isolation during the Ukraine war, and another Middle East regime change won’t do much to change that strategy.
With Iran seemingly intent on continuing its strikes against Gulf targets and regional leaders mulling whether and how to respond, what can policymakers and military planners expect to see next in terms of likely target sets, risks to civilian areas, concerns over air defense munition supplies, and potential repercussions for energy and commercial shipping interests?
Much more so than even last year’s war, the two allies are equal military partners in the current fight, but the growing gaps between their publics could impede cooperation on the next set of major policy issues in the region.
The conflict in June 2025 laid bare longstanding misconceptions about escalation management with the regime and could hold lessons as the United States contemplates further military action.
Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region
Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.
Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East
Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.