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Smoke billows over downtown Tehran as U.S. and Israeli airstrikes continue in 2026 - source: Reuters

THE IRAN WAR:

WEEK THREE

Podcast: The Iran War's Second Front—Israel vs. Hezbollah with Hanin Ghaddar and Assaf Orion

A video board displays various oil and gas commodity prices in September 2023 - source: Reuters

Defeating Iran’s Strategy: Energy Security and the “Abraham Shield”

Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime's military capabilities.

Mar 16, 2026

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Assaf Orion

Photo showing Ukraine's President Zelensky greeting Saudi officials on the tarmac.

Washington Should Jump on Ukraine’s Outreach to the Middle East

By offering military expertise and technology to the Gulf states, Kyiv has given the U.S. government a unique opportunity to counter Iran and Russia while boosting the security of American partners and forces in the region.

Mar 13, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

An Achievable Goal in Iran

Instead of regime change, try regime weakening.

Mar 13, 2026

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Dennis Ross

The Middle East’s “1919” Moment

If the Iranian threat to the Middle East is brought to an end, the loose alliance of actors who have long sought this outcome must manage their differences to avoid the regional mistakes made after World War I.

Mar 10, 2026

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James Jeffrey

China’s Middle East Ties Go Far Beyond Iran

Beijing is just as concerned about its Gulf partners as it is about China’s “old friends” in Tehran.

Mar 10, 2026

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Henry Tugendhat

Examining the Terrorism and Insurgency Links Between AfPak and Iran

The two conflicts may appear unrelated, but an al-Qaeda haven in Iran, threats from the Islamic State, and separatist ambitions could supercharge the risks to regional and global security.

Mar 12, 2026

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Bombs Can Weaken Iran’s Regime. They Can’t Replace It.

Iran’s fractured opposition and years of repression make rapid regime change unlikely.

Mar 9, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

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Institute Expertise on All Aspects of the Iran War

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Formerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Webcast Wednesday: Great Power Competition During (and After) the Iran War

Join us for an in-depth conversation examining how Beijing, Moscow, and European capitals are navigating the Iran crisis and what their choices reveal about the future of the global order. Watch live starting at 1:00 p.m. EDT (1700 GMT) on Wednesday, March 18, 2026.

Learn more about this event.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

Recent Institute Analysis

How Russia Benefits from Oil Disruption in the Gulf

The de facto halt to Gulf oil shipments has already helped Moscow win back India as a major oil customer, while the rise in global prices could greatly refresh its depleted Ukraine war budget.

Mar 11, 2026

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Noam Raydan
Anna Borshchevskaya

Lebanon’s Failure to Disarm Hezbollah Comes With a Price

Through their continued unwillingness to take on the militia and break Iran’s hold over Lebanon, Beirut and the LAF have effectively chosen the more calamitous path of war with Israel.

Mar 14, 2026

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David Schenker

Flags of Israel and Lebanon painted on hands outstretched to each other, overlaying map of Israel-Lebanon border and beyond.

Let’s Not Miss the Huge Opportunity for Peace Between Lebanon and Israel

If President Trump gave the Lebanon front just a fraction of the attention he has directed toward Iran and Gaza, he could wind up with the newest Arab member of the Abraham Accords—and a Nobel Peace Prize.

Mar 8, 2026

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Robert Satloff

US Army troops board transport helicopters

Alternative Security Models for Syria Amid U.S. Pullout

By using Syria’s newfound resources as a coalition member and negotiating military assignments at the U.S. embassy, the two governments could offset many of the concerns raised by the withdrawal of American combat units.

Mar 7, 2026

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James Jeffrey

Hezbollah fighters parade with flags in Lebanon in 2019 - source: Reuters

Lebanon at a Crossroad: Without Swift Disarmament, Hezbollah Will Be Victorious

If Beirut fails to disarm the group, target its financial and political foundations, and hold it accountable for a long list of violations against the Lebanese people, a much bleaker alternative scenario will unfold.

Mar 10, 2026

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Hanin Ghaddar

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,