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SHAKY CEASEFIRES, PERILOUS AFTERSHOCKS

Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland

Although the threat may be somewhat diminished by the damage inflicted on Tehran’s security and intelligence agencies, the regime will reconstitute those capabilities over time and may calculate that the benefits of attacking highly vulnerable targets inside the United States outweigh the risks.

May 6, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Screenshot from MarineTraffic showing the route of the Idemitsu Maru.

Maps & Graphics

Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn

Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure, so authorities cannot expect to reverse this shift quickly even if the war ends soon.

May 1, 2026

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Noam Raydan

A British sailor salutes the Royal Navy flag - source: Department of Defense

Encouraging European Military Efforts to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz

Although the new European-led military initiative signals a divergence from the current U.S. approach, Washington could still harness Paris and London’s ability to mobilize international action on the shared goal of preventing Tehran from flexing its leverage over global energy markets.

Apr 24, 2026

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Souhire Medini

The national flags of China and Iran fly in Tiananmen Square during Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi's visit to Beijing, China, February 14, 2023 - source: Reuters

Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?

The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.

May 4, 2026

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Michael Sobolik
Grant Rumley

Emergency personnel respond to a terrorist knife attack in London in 2026 - source: Reuters

The U.S. Shouldn’t Lose Sight of the Real Terrorist Threats

From releasing its long-delayed CT strategy document to filling crucial professional vacancies, the administration needs to publicly clarify that countering terrorism—Iranian and otherwise—remains a top national security priority.

May 4, 2026

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Michael Jacobson

Podcast: Will Israel Vote Out Netanyahu? with Gili Cohen and David Horovitz

Israel is scheduled to hold elections later this year, the first elections since the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2023. Veteran Israeli journalists join Decision Points podcast host David Makovsky to preview the campaign and the choices facing Israeli voters that may shape their country and the region for decades to come.

Learn more about the Decision Points podcast.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

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Institute Expertise on the Iran War and Its Aftermath

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan, The Washington Institute's William Sudhaus Senior Fellow, studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Formerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Recent Institute Analysis

Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Limits of Gulf Unity

If left unchecked, the reemerging rift between the two Gulf powerhouses could fragment the region into competing poles, further roil markets, and destabilize fragile states in the area.

Spring 2026

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April Longley Alley

Palestinain refugees wait for IDF permission to gather their belongings while benig expelled from a camp near Jenin - source: Reuters

Rebuilding West Bank Refugee Camps: A Shared Interest for Palestinians and Israelis

If coordinated properly, reconstructing—and rethinking—the northern camps destroyed during Operation Iron Wall could help improve refugees’ lives, reduce militant activity, and create a rare shared interest and perceptual shift between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.

Apr 30, 2026

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Neomi Neumann

A UNIFIL peacekeeper on duty in Lebanon - source: United Nations

Lebanon After UNIFIL: Good Riddance, Not a “Vacuum”

Whether the UN and Europe agree to align with a limited, U.S.-led mechanism or insist on their own separate missions

Apr 29, 2026

The Collapse of Indefinite Detention in Northeast Syria: Implications Seven Years Later for Syria and Beyond

An in-depth look at the swift and dramatic changes that have occurred in Syria’s vulnerable network of Islamic State detention

April 2026

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matthew Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,

Screenshot of the Iran External Operations interactive map

Iran External Operations 1979-present

Access this powerful interactive tool, which maps over forty-five years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe.

Video: Expert Conversations on the Iran Crisis

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi greets Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov and Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi in Beijing in March 2025 - source: Reuters

Video

Wartime Support to Iran: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond

Three experts explore the regional and global implications of Russian and Chinese support for Tehran, including how much this assistance actually affects U.S. efforts to weaken the regime’s capabilities and bring the crisis to an end.

Apr 24, 2026

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Hasan Alhasan
Nicole Grajewski
Matthew Tavares

Vice President Vance arrives in Pakistan for talks with Iranian counterparts in April 2026 - source: Reuters

Video

Moving from War to Diplomacy: What’s Next for Iran, Lebanon, and Gaza?

Amid major diplomatic milestones and major international security threats, three experts explore what it will take to achieve success on multiple negotiating tracks at once.

Apr 16, 2026

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Michael Herzog
Robert Satloff
Hanin Ghaddar

An Iranian woman walks by the scene of a U.S. airstrike in Tehran - source: Reuters

Video

In the Dark and in Danger: Iran’s Internet Shutdown and Wartime Repression

Human rights experts diagnose the current public mood in Iran and discuss how foreign governments can help counter the regime’s growing use of internet blackouts and other digital repression tools.

Apr 10, 2026

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Mahsa Alimardani
Nazanin Boniadi
Roya Boroumand

A photo illustration depicts chess pieces and the Iranian and U.S. flags - source: Reuters

Video

Diplomacy During War: Priorities for the Trump Administration

Three former U.S. policy practitioners experienced in negotiating with Iran discuss what kind of agreement is possible, what each side may require to make it happen, and how officials in Washington, Israel, the Gulf states, and Europe should address emerging differences in their objectives.

Apr 3, 2026

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Emily Harding
Richard Nephew
Michael Singh
Nancy A. Youssef

Recently in Fikra Forum

Fikra Forum

Sanctions and Sudan’s Muslim Brotherhood: Decoupling Burhan from Sudan’s Islamists and Iran

Sanctioning Sudan's Muslim Brotherhood will likely have an impact on Burhan's approach to the group, but a true decoupling will likely require additional pressure given their political influence and role in the current conflict.

Apr 17, 2026

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Areig Elhag

Fikra Forum

In Syria, an Amnesty Decree Without Justice?

The debates sparked by Decree No. 39 raise questions about how the country will bridge the troubling gaps between official government discourse and victims’ rights.

Apr 8, 2026

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Hanadi al-Khatib

Iran’s Western Frontier: Iranian Kurds Navigate Risk and Opportunity

For the estimated 7 to 15 million Kurds in Iran, the current war represents a narrow window for change, albeit one

Mar 23, 2026

A Sudanese army soldier stands near a bombed-out vehicle outside Khartoum - source: Reuters

Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong

Jan 22, 2026

Arab Public Opinion 2014 to Today

Fikra Interactive Public Polling Platform Thumbnail

Maps & Graphics

TWI Interactive Polling Platform

Interactive datasets, from 2014 to today

Jun 30, 2022

In Focus: Iran

Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland

May 6, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Deniable, Disposable, Disruptive: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Europe Demands a Proactive Response

The low-sophistication, high-volume approach used in wartime attacks claimed by the front group HAYI has exposed critical vulnerabilities in Western efforts to harden soft targets, curb online recruitment, and protect Jewish communities amid spillover from the Middle East.

May 4, 2026

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Adrian Shtuni

Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?

The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.

May 4, 2026

Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn

Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure

May 1, 2026

Regions & Countries

Issues

SHAKY CEASEFIRES, PERILOUS AFTERSHOCKS

Podcast: Will Israel Vote Out Netanyahu? with Gili Cohen and David Horovitz

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Institute Expertise on the Iran War and Its Aftermath

Recent Institute Analysis

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Interactive Maps

Video: Expert Conversations on the Iran Crisis

Recently in Fikra Forum

Arab Public Opinion 2014 to Today

In Focus: Iran