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Podcast: Will Trump Go to War with Iran?

The United States and Iran stand on the brink of war. The Pentagon has deployed a huge amount of air power in the Middle East, and President Trump has set a 10-15 day deadline to decide whether to strike.

In this first episode of a new season, Decision Points host David Makovsky is joined by former U.S. national security advisor Jake Sullivan and former Israeli national security advisor Eyal Hulata in a conversation recorded on February 20, 2026. They assess whether the United States and Iran are plunging toward conflict or whether a negotiated outcome is still possible—and explore the risks of both war and diplomacy. Drawing on their experience at the highest levels of government, Sullivan and Hulata explore the lessons that should guide policymakers through this crisis.

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Study: Lessons of Past Conflicts with Iran

Israeli F-15I fighters, a U.S. B-2 bomber, and Iranian Shahab-3 missile

Maps & Graphics

Deterrence and Escalation Dynamics with Iran:

Insights from Four Decades of Conflict and a Twelve-Day War

The conflict in June 2025 laid bare longstanding misconceptions about escalation management with the regime and could hold lessons as the United States contemplates further military action.

Feb 20, 2026

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Michael Eisenstadt

Recent Institute Analysis

A photo illustration shows US and Iranian flags and an atomic symbol - source: Reuters

A “Good Deal” with Iran? Requirements for Preventing a Future Nuclear Breakout

Setting aside the broader array of deep Western policy concerns about Iran—including its terrorism sponsorship, direct and proxy aggression against Israel and the Gulf states, and brutal violence against its own people—what nuclear terms would negotiators have to insist on to avoid the setbacks of the JCPOA process and keep the regime from acquiring nuclear weapons for the long term?

Feb 12, 2026

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Zohar Palti

Another Iran “Deal” Is Less Important Than Exerting U.S. Leverage

U.S. envoys should be focused less on making a deal and more on how they can use the prospect of imminent military strikes to secure concessions on the nuclear issue, missile threats, treatment of protesters, and other matters.

Feb 4, 2026

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Michael Singh
Richard Nephew

Flight deck crew issues commands to a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet prior to launch from the carrier USS Harry S. Truman - source: Department of Defense

What If the United States Doesn’t Strike Iran?

No matter what President Trump may say about potentially securing “a good deal” from Iran, refraining from military action after weeks of dire U.S. warnings would likely convince Tehran that it can strike fear in other governments.

Feb 3, 2026

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Patrick Clawson

A Palestinian man in Gaza releases pigeons

What the New Gaza Administrative Committee Needs to Succeed

The NCAG’s viability will depend on producing quick, tangible deliverables, so the Trump administration, the Board of Peace, and the High Representative should stand ready to provide the requisite support on staving off Hamas and PA obstructionism and cutting through Israeli red tape.

Feb 5, 2026

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Ghaith al-Omari

The White House photographed from behind a chain-link fence - source: Reuters

America the Fearful: Visions of Decline Are a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy

President Trump’s recent military adventures seem driven less by confidence and canny strategy than by fear of America losing status on the world stage, including in the Middle East.

Feb 11, 2026

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Michael Singh

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Institute Expertise on Iran

Patrick Clawson

The Morningstar Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, Patrick Clawson directs the Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy. He has authored more than 150 articles about the Middle East and international economics and is the author or editor of eighteen books or studies on Iran.

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Michael Eisenstadt

A speialist in Persian Gulf security affairs, Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of the Military and Security Studies Program at The Washington Institute. He has published widely on Iranian strategy, irregular warfare, and nuclear proliferation.

Michael Singh

A former senior director for Middle East Affairs at the National Security Council, Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute. His responsibilities at the NSC included a focus on Iran's nuclear program and its regional activities.

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Interactive Map: ISIS Global Activity

Under the leadership of jihadism scholar Aaron Zelin, a team of researchers at The Washington Institute has built the Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity Map, an interactive tool that provides a more accessible way to search, track, and understand the organization’s global reach. It represents the most comprehensive public archive of the group’s attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases — information that is becoming invaluable as IS affiliates disperse into a wider range of jurisdictions and the U.S. government continues shifting resources away from the global counterterrorism fight.

Access the interactive map.