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Articles & Testimony
The UNIFIL Follies Turn Deadly on the Israel-Lebanon Border
The recent murder of an Irish peacekeeper has once again exposed the international mission as a costly failure—one that should be drastically curtailed come renewal time this summer.
Jan 24, 2023
◆
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Assessing CENTCOM’s Posture in 2023
To meet ambitious goals with reduced resources, the U.S. military and its regional partners will need to continue expanding their focus on unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, agile combat employment, and integrated air defense.
Jan 24, 2023
◆
Nathan P. Olsen
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Transnational Muqawama Show Disapproval Via Warithuun Attack on al-Tanf
With probable IRGC-QF acquiescence, a militia facade group struck U.S. targets in Syria to register its defiance against a possible extension of the U.S. presence in Iraq.
Jan 24, 2023
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
◆
Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Civil Society in Tunisia:
Resetting Expectations
Reduced U.S. support need not mean abandoning Tunisians or democratization, and can center on directing limited funds more intentionally.
Jan 23, 2023
◆
Sabina Henneberg
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Forty Percent of Saudis and Emiratis Still Accept Israeli Contacts, Even Under Netanyahu
Approval for contacts with Israelis remained steady through 2022, even as hesitancy on Abraham Accords continued.
Jan 19, 2023
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
What Do Iran’s Protests Mean for Iraq and the Kurdistan Region?
Internal instability in Iran may cause significant religious, economic, and political repercussions across the border in Iraq.
Jan 17, 2023
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Zubir R. Ahmed
Nawzad Shukri
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Spokesmen Reflect on Sudani Inviting U.S. Forces to Remain
Asaib Ahl al-Haq is signaling pragmatism, while Kataib Hezbollah is contorting its arguments to allow it to play along, albeit without explicitly accepting a U.S. military presence.
Jan 17, 2023
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Ameer al-Kaabi
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
◆
Militia Spotlight
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Between the Lines: Understanding the Houthi Employment Code of Conduct
Since the failure of international efforts to renew the ceasefire in Yemen this past November, the Houthi movement has—with increasing speed—spread its influence and dominance over the men and women living under its control.
Jan 15, 2023
◆
Laila Lutf Al-Thawr
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iranian Daughters: Struggling for the Rights Their Mothers Lost in the Revolution
Activists fighting for women's rights in Iran today have learned from their predecessors' mistakes and are more determined than ever to achieve gender equality.
Jan 13, 2023
◆
Sepideh Zamani
Articles & Testimony
Repeating the Past or Following Precedent? Contextualising the Taliban 2.0’s Governance of Women
A twenty-first-century return to the group’s past gender apartheid is a distinct possibility, potentially threatening Afghan women’s rights, the survival of vulnerable ethnic groups, and the country’s broader security and prosperity.
Jan 12, 2023
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Gina Vale
Devorah Margolin
Farkhondeh Akbari
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Budget Perpetuates Economic Challenges
The president is proposing de facto cuts to salaries and subsidies as well as more money for the military, while avoiding the tough reforms Iran’s economy needs.
Jan 12, 2023
◆
Henry Rome
Articles & Testimony
Israel’s Power Shift: To Bibi, or Not to Bibi
Once Netanyahu finds a way out of his legal troubles, he stands a realistic chance of balancing the demands of his most militant coalition partners with the expectations of the wider Israeli, Arab, and international community.
Jan 12, 2023
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David Pollock
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Lauds "Resistance Government" in Iraq
Pro-militia parliamentarians and journalists have become increasingly open about what they expect the Sudani government's role to be: a cover for the muqawama.
Jan 11, 2023
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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Yes Vote on Syria Aid Will Come With a Price
Moscow’s willingness to approve another UN extension has more to do with advancing normalization between Turkey and the Assad regime than helping Syrian civilians, who will remain hostage to Russian demands if nothing is done before the next vote this summer.
Jan 11, 2023
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Ukraine Are Not Ready for Talks
No deal is possible between a Ukraine that is making steady battlefield progress and a Russia in denial of this reality, but they might get there if Kyiv keeps winning.
Jan 11, 2023
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James Sebenius
Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Turkish Drone Strikes and Building Concerns About Washington in Syria’s Autonomous Administration
Some U.S. allies believe the Biden administration has been noticeably muted regarding Turkey's escalations in northern Syria and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq.
Jan 11, 2023
◆
Baraa Sabri
Brief Analysis
Netanyahu’s Potential Friction Points with Biden (Part 2): Iran, Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, and Domestic Issues
The prime minister will need a great deal of U.S. military and diplomatic assistance to achieve his foreign policy imperatives—a fact he should not forget when mulling potentially divisive moves at home.
Jan 10, 2023
◆
David Makovsky
Video
Brief Analysis
A Survey of the 2023 Terrorism Threat Landscape
The head of America’s counterterrorism enterprise assesses which threats will demand the most attention over the next year, from racially motivated extremists in the homeland to ISIS and al-Qaeda offshoots in Africa.
Jan 10, 2023
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Christine Abizaid
◆
Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Brief Analysis
Secretive Agenda for Pakistani Military Visit to Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Official mentions of “military and defense cooperation” could include sharing of nuclear and missile technology.
Jan 9, 2023
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Simon Henderson
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