Policy Analysis

Iran’s future military activities will likely be marked by greater continuity than change, but Supreme Leader Khamenei’s succession could presage more risk-acceptant behavior and a reconsideration of its nuclear hedging strategy.

Many Middle Eastern outlets have used the crisis to reinforce their inflammatory rhetoric, but some have provided nuanced analysis through the lenses of democratic principles and Arab-Israel peace.

A former coalition commander joins Washington Institute experts to discuss the war’s legacy, the country’s current challenges, and how U.S. policy should evolve in response.

With elections approaching, the Turkish opposition may have an opportunity to rethink Syrian refugee policies.

The Gulf states have their own reasons for reaching out to Assad, but they need to understand that Washington will not exempt them from most of its multilayered Syria sanctions without substantial change in the regime’s posture.

A sampling of posts suggests fears of another catastrophic war, increased public questioning of Hezbollah as a “resistance” movement, and anger toward its cooperation with Iran in compromising Lebanon’s sovereignty.

Tunisia’s structural roadblocks, public skepticism, and ongoing domestic crises have combined to limit its relationship with China, leaving Beijing unable to jumpstart its typical large-scale projects and investments.

Following the ICC's decision, the KRG has limited options in its fight for financial independence from Baghdad.

Because Netanyahu’s main objectives on Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the Abraham Accords all depend on U.S. support, he also needs a workable policy toward the Palestinians—but his coalition partners are threatening this tenet.

With an opportunity to subtly expand its influence in the West Bank, Hamas is less likely to risk an all-out war with Israel from Gaza as they did in 2021.

Despite thirty years of landmark achievements, the KRG’s endless quest for economic independence has only entrenched its internal divisions and kleptocracy while shifting its dependency—from Iraq to Turkey, and from foreign aid to oil revenues.

As in past incidents where IRGC officers were killed, U.S. naval forces should watch closely for any Iranian attempt to retaliate against Israel by attacking one of its commercial vessels in nearby waters.

One hopes that the U.S. intelligence community picked up all the chatter between oil producers even if energy analysts and the news media did not.

Top "resistance" groups sought to avoid embarrassing the Sudani government, but at least one propaganda channel gave away Iraqi involvement.

Liwa al-Ghaliboun is an Iraqi cell that is directed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-Qods Force and has undertaken proxy attacks on U.S. personnel in Syria.

Runaway inflation, currency devaluation, and unprecedented foreign debt could make this holiday the most challenging one in years, especially for low-income households.

Amid flare-ups in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Iran and Russia are keeping a watchful eye on developments in the South Caucasus, from Israel’s warming relations with Baku to potentially shifting control over regional transport corridors.

A former Israeli intelligence official joins two other experts to discuss how the situation might affect the government’s domestic political prospects, relations with Washington, and ability to counter external security threats.

A pipeline arbitration ruling has imperiled a recent Baghdad-Kurdistan breakthrough, but this roadblock can be removed if the United States acts urgently to disrupt spoilers and help constructive players.

A series of rapid announcements has indicated the Emirati leader’s vision for the future of Abu Dhabi and the rest of the UAE.