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Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Health, Financial, and Security Crises Sharpen the Urgency of Forming a Government
Allawi’s cabinet failure may indicate growing Iraqi agency at Iran’s expense, but the path toward political stability remains tortuous and foggy.
Mar 13, 2020
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Bilal Wahab
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Most Jerusalem Palestinians Want Neither Israeli Rule nor Uprising Against It, as Silwan Neighborhood Stands Out for More Militant Views
The Bellwether Citizenship Question–Palestine Now Trumps Israel: East Jerusalem’s 330,000 Palestinian legal residents, though overwhelmingly not Israeli citizens, have many practical advantages over their West Bank neighbors. Only the former have the right to work, study, and travel freely inside Israel, and to participate in Israel’s extensive social welfare system
Mar 13, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Can Stop the Surge of Deadly Rocket Attacks in Iraq
Congress and the Trump administration should privately agree to some ground rules for timing deterrent strikes on truly high-value targets, while quietly deploying more force-protection assets like Patriot missiles.
Mar 13, 2020
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Michael Knights
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Trump's 'Deal of the Century' and Why it Still Matters
This month marks the anniversary of the pivotal Israel-Egypt Peace Treaty, the first agreement of its kind. The two nations have enjoyed diplomatic relations since the signing of the treaty over 40 years ago. Through trials and challenges, the agreement has held and offers hope in a time where peace
Mar 13, 2020
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Dalia Ziada
Brief Analysis
The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 2): Regime Culpability and Resiliency
Even as their lack of transparency worsens the public health crisis, the Supreme Leader and other officials have systematically gutted any civil society elements capable of organizing substantial opposition to such policies.
Mar 12, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
How Is the U.S. Targeted Killing of Qassem Soleimani Likely to Affect Hezbollah’s International Activities and Operations?
Revelations from a recent terrorism trial suggest that the group will be patient in avenging his death, but could eventually use the preoperational surveillance it regularly collects to carry out an attack.
Mar 11, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
The Crisis in Idlib
Given the near-certainty that conflict will erupt again in northwest Syria, the United States should start planning for how it might leverage that next outbreak to push the parties toward a political process.
Mar 11, 2020
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Dana Stroul
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Arab Narratives of The Dead Sea Scrolls: Between Abrahamic Tolerance and Conspiracy
In early 1947, a Bedouin shepherd named Muhammad Ta’amirah threw a rock into an opening on the side of a cliff near Qumran on the northwestern shore of the Dead Sea and heard a clay pot shatter. The next day, the shepherd returned with some of his friends and climbed
Mar 11, 2020
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Emad Bouzo
Articles & Testimony
Russia and Saudis in a Knife Fight Over Oil—But We May Be the Victims
The duration and effects of the showdown may come down to price fluctuations and budgetary requirements in Moscow and Riyadh, but the U.S. shale industry will likely suffer either way.
Mar 10, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Making Sense of the Saudi Rumors: A Guide to Royal Family Politics
Reports of royal arrests, a possible coup plot, and a brewing oil price war suggest that the kingdom is facing another period of considerable political tension.
Mar 9, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
The Coronavirus in Iran (Part 1): Clerical Factors
The clergy’s ambitions for global Shia revolution made the city of Qom uniquely vulnerable to the disease, and their resistance to modern medical science weakened the state’s ability to combat its spread.
Mar 9, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
As Israel’s Kingmaker Gets Off the Fence, Gantz Gets a Boost
Although Benny Gantz’s party lost the head-to-head battle, Avigdor Liberman’s favorable influence on the coalition math has left the general in a stronger position—and taken some diplomatic weight off the Trump administration’s shoulders.
Mar 9, 2020
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David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Escalating Houthi Offensives in Yemen: U.S. Options
To keep recent rebel victories from cascading into a wider military collapse, Washington must urge the Gulf coalition to firm up the government’s forces and move more quickly on peace talks.
Mar 6, 2020
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Alex Almeida
Michael Knights
Turkey’s Imperial Foreign Policy: Vision vs. Reality
A deep dive into the evolution of Erdogan’s regional approach and how it informs the current crises in Syria and other hotspots.
Mar 6, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Palestinian Public Resigned to Israel’s Election Outcome, Looks to Other Arabs Instead for Next Steps
Palestinians watching Israel’s election this week are likely to find their low expectations fulfilled. The vote produced yet another inconclusive result, with the incumbent prime minister’s Likud Party narrowly in the lead but unable to muster a majority governing coalition with its existing right-wing and religious allies. The centrist Blue
Mar 6, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
The Shia vs. the ‘Shia Crescent’
Whether by force or politics, Iran desperately needs to reconsolidate power among Shia constituencies throughout the region, but this challenge may prove insurmountable given current public sentiment in Iraq and Lebanon.
Mar 5, 2020
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Hanin Ghaddar
Fikra Forum
The Response of Israel's Temporary Government to the Challenge of Coronavirus
The first signs of the coronavirus epidemic came just two weeks before Israel’s third election, when fourteen Israelis were quarantined for two weeks on the Diamond Princess cruise ship off the coast of Japan. For Israel’s politicians, the virus gave them the excuse to bombard the electorate with news of
Mar 5, 2020
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Yoel Donchin
Brief Analysis
A New Erdogan-Putin Deal in Idlib May Help—For Now
Turkey, Russia, and Washington have compelling reasons to welcome a new ceasefire agreement, however imperfect, but they still need to address the longer-term dangers posed by the Assad regime’s murderously maximalist strategy.
Mar 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
IAEA Reports Renew Questions About Iran’s Nuclear Ambitions
U.S. officials have ample grounds to reinvigorate diplomatic pressure after the world’s nuclear watchdog accused Iran of being uncooperative, but they need to focus on the right questions.
Mar 4, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
The IRGC Post-Soleimani: Political and Security Implications at Home and Abroad
Three leading Iran scholars explore how the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the broader regime will adapt their policies following the death of the seminal Qods Force commander.
Mar 3, 2020
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Ariane Tabatabai
Mehdi Khalaji
Farzin Nadimi
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