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Fikra Forum
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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
‘Strategic Patience’ and Iran’s “Resistance Axis”: An Enduring Challenge for Biden's Administration
Iran and the “Resistance Axis” are poised for another round of “strategic patience,” which, if ignored, will serve to the detriment of the United States, its allies and partners.
Dec 11, 2020
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Hassan Mneimneh
Brief Analysis
Al-Qaeda’s External Operations One Year After the Pensacola Attack
Drone campaigns have greatly culled the group’s leadership, but leaders are replaceable, and the guided-attack model seen in Pensacola could be a significant force multiplier for any locally rooted affiliates who seek to strike abroad in the coming years.
Dec 11, 2020
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Matthew Levitt
Aaron Y. Zelin
Brief Analysis
Reform, Not Violence, Will Ease Iraqi Kurdish Protests
In addition to publicly condemning the violent repression of demonstrations, Washington should urge its Kurdish allies to stop stalling on economic reforms at home and budget negotiations with Baghdad.
Dec 10, 2020
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Bilal Wahab
Fikra Forum
Maps & Graphics
Fikra Forum
UAE Public Shifts Toward Peace with Israel—and with Qatar
November 2020 polling reviews an Emirati public split on major foreign policy questions, from peace with Israel to the U.S. election and the rift with Qatar.
Dec 10, 2020
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David Pollock
Catherine Cleveland
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah Has Created Parallel Financial and Welfare Systems to Manage the Current Crisis
To contain corrupt actors and facilitate reform, the international community must provide alternatives to Hezbollah pharmaceutical and food programs while filling gaps that the group is unable to address.
Dec 9, 2020
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Hanin Ghaddar
New Saudi Poll Shows Increased Support for Israel Contacts, But with Caveats
This article originally included a polling error. The article has been updated to reflect the corrected data. Read the corrected article.
Dec 9, 2020
Articles & Testimony
Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin
The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.
Dec 9, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Fikra Forum
Maps & Graphics
Fikra Forum
Correction: New Saudi Poll Shows Sharp Rise in Support for Israel Ties, Despite Caveats
New polling data provides a window into popular Saudi views of the Abraham Accords and other foreign policy concerns facing the kingdom.
Dec 8, 2020
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David Pollock
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Should Take a Strategic View Towards Iraq
The country need not be a top foreign policy priority, but the Biden administration would be wise to invest in Iraqi security, unity, and democracy amid competition with Russia, China, and Iran.
Dec 8, 2020
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Russia’s Syrian Refugee Conference Highlights Just How Far Away a Solution Is
After years of military cooperation in a conflict that has displaced millions of Syrians, the Assad regime and Russia arranged for a two-day conference that began on November 11 in Damascus, which they presented as a means to move forward on the issue of Syrian refugees and displaced persons. In
Dec 7, 2020
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Omar Abu Layla
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Soft Power Projection in the Middle East
Moscow conducts far more soft-power activity in the region than one might suspect, using subversive and opaque versions of the same tools employed by the West.
Dec 4, 2020
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Anna Borshchevskaya
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Turkey's Opposition vs. the AKP: Measuring Messaging
Challengers to Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan are proliferating, with two breakaway parties drawing particular notice. In December 2019, Ahmet Davutoglu, who served under Erdogan as foreign minister and then prime minister, formed Gelecek (Future) in an attempt to resurrect a gentler version of the Justice and Development Party (AKP)
Dec 4, 2020
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Soner Cagaptay
Reilly Barry
Articles & Testimony
Is OPEC Finally Beginning to Unravel?
Drastically lowered revenues, changing energy markets, political squabbling, and a new U.S. administration may eventually break the cartel’s cyclical status quo.
Dec 4, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price
Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.
Dec 3, 2020
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Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Iran’s New Nuclear Law: Negotiating Tactic, Domestic Political Tool, or Both?
The seemingly provocative legislation is as much theater as reality given the parliament’s relatively small role in foreign policy.
Dec 3, 2020
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Mehdi Khalaji
Video
Brief Analysis
The Counterterrorism Role of Homeland Security Investigations
A closer look at the inner workings of HSI, a little-known agency with unique authorities that are instrumental in solving numerous terrorism cases every year.
Dec 3, 2020
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Louis Rodi
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Counterterrorism Lecture Series
Articles & Testimony
Forecasting U.S.-UAE Relations Under the New Biden Administration
From addressing Iranian threats to mending rifts with Qatar and Turkey, the sound bilateral partnership on regional issues will likely thrive in the Biden era, albeit with some marginal adjustments by both governments.
Dec 1, 2020
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David Pollock
Fikra Forum
Maps & Graphics
Fikra Forum
Lebanon Poll Shows Drop in Hezbollah Support, Even Among Shia; Plurality Back Israel Boundary Talks
Lebanese support for Hezbollah continues to decline and protests remain popular, according to November 2020 polling in Lebanon.
Dec 1, 2020
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David Pollock
Brief Analysis
Washington Pushes to End the Qatar Rift
Successful diplomacy could enhance Arab normalization with Israel and boost U.S. efforts to counter Iran, but it is unclear if Riyadh wants to bargain now or wait for Joe Biden.
Dec 1, 2020
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Simon Henderson
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Rise of Kata’ib Hezbollah’s Hegemonic ‘Resistance’
The Iraq-based Kata’ib Hezbollah (KH) is diligently and meticulously working to achieve hegemony among Iran-backed 'resistance' militias in Iraq. The group is positioning itself as the 'true resistance' faction and obliging other Iran-backed groups to follow its lead. In order to achieve this goal, KH is operating on military and
Dec 1, 2020
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Hamdi Malik
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