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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh: The Iranian Dimension
New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demographic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan.
Oct 6, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Articles & Testimony
Peace for Warplanes?
How domestic and foreign disputes over the potential sale of F-35 jets to the UAE could complicate the country's normalization deal with Israel.
Aug 31, 2020
◆
  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
Iran Flaunts New Missile and Jet Engine Technology
Although many of the recently unveiled systems are foreign copies or have unproven capabilities, they show a substantial indigenous development capacity that will only accelerate once the UN ban on weapons sales is lifted—even if past sanctions snap back into action.
Aug 28, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Saudi-Pakistan Rift Develops Over India
Growing tensions between the two allies have both Islamic and nuclear angles.
Aug 21, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Cautious Response to Washington’s Snapback Threat
Instead of playing hardball, the entire regime is seemingly embracing the more prudent approach of disregarding the U.S. threat and exploiting the resultant diplomatic clash for political gains.
Aug 21, 2020
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Articles & Testimony
Is China Helping Saudi Arabia to Build a Nuclear Bomb?
Riyadh has now ticked the first two boxes on the enrichment checklist and might already be working on the others.
Aug 5, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Video
Brief Analysis
Mapping Hezbollah's Worldwide Activities
Three current and former U.S. officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Hezbollah and its enablers.
Aug 5, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
  • Kash Patel
  • Juan Zarate
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iran-Syria Air Defense Pact Could Disrupt Allied Operations
Despite domestic challenges, major technical hurdles, and ongoing Israeli military interdiction, Iran still aims to transfer potent air defense systems to fellow ‘axis of resistance’ members and interconnect them.
Jul 24, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Iranian rockets and flag
Brief Analysis
If the Arms Ban Ends: Implications for Iran’s Military Capabilities
Discussions about lifting the ban tend to focus on major weapons systems Tehran might acquire abroad, yet the most important long-term impact may be on its ability to upgrade existing capabilities and strengthen domestic arms production.
Jul 23, 2020
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Will Iran ‘Go Nuclear’ Over Its Latest Nuke Site Setback?
Even if the regime’s prospects of obtaining enough high-enriched uranium for a weapon have been greatly delayed, the potential repercussions do not end there.
Jul 6, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Sunset of the Iran Arms Embargo:
The Narrow Path to a Policy Compromise
Delinking the embargo from the nuclear deal could offer the best hope of reducing tensions within the P5+1 while also limiting Iran’s access to sophisticated weaponry.
Jun 29, 2020
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  • Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
Iran Is Repeating Its Past Errors with the IAEA
To prevent the agency from issuing a noncompliance resolution, Tehran has been threatening to impede inspections, but this approach could easily backfire on the regime.
Jun 18, 2020
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
Iran Signals a Toughened Stance by Adding to Its Naval Arsenal
The regime may eventually use larger vessels to project power beyond the Gulf, but even its more modest recent additions portend further confrontations and weapons proliferation in local waters.
Jun 18, 2020
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
The Caesar Act Comes Into Force (Part 2): Pressuring Hezbollah in Lebanon
In addition to targeting Hezbollah and other local actors who support the Assad regime and harm Lebanon’s economy, the new U.S. legislation can help bolster Beirut’s sovereignty.
Jun 12, 2020
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Video
Brief Analysis
Iran's Asymmetric Naval Response to 'Maximum Pressure'
Three veteran observers of Iranian naval forces and doctrines assess the country's ability to punch above its weight in the Persian Gulf.
Jun 10, 2020
◆
  • Michael Connell
  • Farzin Nadimi
  • John Miller
Articles & Testimony
Iran Continues Its Nuclear Work, But Is It Weapons Grade?
An upcoming IAEA report will give Washington and Europe more clarity on where the nuclear program stands and whether united Western efforts to contain it are still possible.
Jun 1, 2020
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
What Turned the Battle for Tripoli?
A boost in Turkish drones and air defense systems enabled forces in Tripoli to establish local air superiority and ease pressure on the capital, leaving each side’s foreign patrons with tough choices about whether to escalate further or take steps to halt the fighting.
May 6, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Conor Hiney
Brief Analysis
Lebanon's Crises Offer a Chance to Address Hezbollah Violations in the South
The UN’s latest report makes clear that the dangerous situation will not improve on its own, compelling the international community to find new ways of addressing the group’s violations and the role that the Lebanese government and military play in enabling them.
May 5, 2020
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  • Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
The Pandemic’s Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program
Although the leadership in Tehran seems preoccupied with the coronavirus, the international community must still watch out for any attempts to exploit the situation via clandestine nuclear activities.
Apr 14, 2020
◆
  • Omer Carmi
Brief Analysis
The Faint Red Line: How the West Should Respond to the Syria Chemical Weapons Report
Europe and the United States can no longer dismiss the strategic and tactical relevance of the regime’s CW attacks, which have continued throughout the conflict and demand further military, diplomatic, and judicial action.
Apr 13, 2020
◆
  • Tobias Schneider
  • Theresa Lutkefend

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson
Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.
Michael Singh
Michael Singh
Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson
Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.
Henry Rome
Henry Rome
Henry Rome was a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.
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