Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

New Leadership for Israel? A Conversation with Gideon Saar

The New Hope party leader and former Likud minister discusses why he is running in Israel’s March election, how his policies differ from Netanyahu’s, and what his approach will be on key issues such as the Middle East peace process and the Iranian nuclear challenge,

Feb 10, 2021

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Gideon Saar

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Sets Conditions for Iran to Resume Its Nuclear Commitments

By stating initial terms that he knows Washington will not meet right now, the Supreme Leader is once again signaling his lack of interest in returning to full JCPOA compliance—at least not before President Rouhani leaves office in August.

Feb 8, 2021

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Flexible Fatwa: How “Expediency” Shapes Nuclear Decisionmaking

The main lesson of the nuclear fatwa is that Tehran’s national security decisions are guided by interests, not ideology, and that progress in negotiations is possible if framed in terms of "regime expediency."

Feb 4, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt
Mehdi Khalaji

Iranian military leaders inspect drones.

Brief Analysis

Drones Over Riyadh: Unpacking the Iran Threat Network’s Tactics

Two enigmatic drone incidents in Saudi Arabia point to gaps in U.S. intelligence coverage and increasingly sophisticated deception tactics by Iran’s integrated militia networks in Iraq and Yemen.

Jan 29, 2021

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

What Did the Confirmation Hearings Reveal About Biden’s Middle East Policy?

Antony Blinken, Avril Haines, and Lloyd Austin responded at length to congressional questions about the Iran nuclear deal, the Yemen war, Arab-Israel normalization, and other pressing regional issues.

Jan 22, 2021

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Ilari Papa

Articles & Testimony

Biden Doesn’t Need to Rush Back into the Iran Nuclear Deal to Defuse Tensions

Less could be more when negotiating with Tehran.

Jan 19, 2021

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Dennis Ross

Brief Analysis

How Might Iran’s “Axis of Resistance” Test Biden?

The new administration could face an Iranian military strike as early as inauguration day, along with multiple threats from the Assad regime, Hezbollah, and other actors down the road, all requiring clear demonstrations of U.S. resolve.

Jan 15, 2021

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Michael Eisenstadt
Christine McVann

Brief Analysis

Deciphering Iran’s Latest Nuclear Messaging

Tehran will continue maneuvering to secure a favorable new nuclear deal with the Biden administration, likely using a combination of bluffs and escalation.

Jan 14, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s First Speech of 2021: Reemphasizing U.S. Weakness, Iranian Self-Reliance

Although the Supreme Leader left room for Biden to return to the nuclear deal and dialed down the vengeful rhetoric, his main message was that Iran cannot trust Washington when it comes to economic matters, security issues, or even coronavirus vaccines.

Jan 8, 2021

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Omer Carmi

In-Depth Reports

The Coming Iran Nuclear Talks:

Openings and Obstacles

A reimagined approach to Iran nuclear talks could extend the country’s breakout time, preserve U.S. negotiating leverage, and strengthen American alliances in Europe and across the Middle East.

Jan 5, 2021

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Dennis Ross

◆ Transition 2021

Video

Brief Analysis

Presidential Transition Event:

Thinking About the Next Phase of Iran Nuclear Diplomacy

Three veteran policy practitioners examine the challenges that the Biden administration will face as it considers whether and how to reenter the Iran nuclear agreement.

January 6, 2021

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Dennis Ross
Suzanne Maloney
Meghan O'Sullivan

How Biden’s Iran Policy Can Have a Chance to Succeed

No sanctions relief should be granted without nuclear concessions, and a “less for less” deal may be the best way of reaching a viable compromise in the near term.

Dec 26, 2020

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Dennis Ross

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Lays Out a Framework for Avenging Soleimani and Reentering Talks

In addition to hinting at when (and who) Iran might strike, the Supreme Leader left the door open for eventual talks with the Biden administration, despite throwing water on President Rouhani’s enthusiasm.

Dec 18, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

To Secure an Iran Nuclear Deal, Include the Mideast’s Powers

For two decades and running, diplomatic efforts have noticeably omitted the regional states most directly in the line of Tehran’s fire, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.

Dec 15, 2020

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Jay Solomon

Brief Analysis

Iran Vies for More Influence in Iraq at a Budget Price

Tehran aims to earn hard currency for its relatively cheap military hardware, ideally boosting its leverage in Baghdad at a fraction of the cost that the United States has been spending there.

Dec 3, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran’s New Nuclear Law: Negotiating Tactic, Domestic Political Tool, or Both?

The seemingly provocative legislation is as much theater as reality given the parliament’s relatively small role in foreign policy.

Dec 3, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Speech Sets the Boundaries of Engagement with the West

In his first major address since Joe Biden’s election, the Supreme Leader downplayed the prospect of negotiating an end to U.S. sanctions, instead urging Iranian officials to focus on increasing the country’s self-reliance and solving its deep economic problems.

Nov 30, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Who Killed Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Iran's Nuclear Chief? Israel Is the Likely Suspect

The operation’s professionalism and complexity suggest the involvement of Israeli personnel; either way, an Iranian security clampdown is inevitable.

Nov 27, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Latest Iran Nuclear Inspection Report Reveals Multiple Concerns

Headlines about increased stockpiles of enriched uranium are only half the story.

Nov 16, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah’s Secrets Explode—and Are Covered Up—Again

Hezbollah leaders are still trying to conceal their strategy of hiding military assets in civilian areas, but each self-explosion and Israeli exposure reveals more about the group's political plight, its persistent quest for precision missiles, and its skill with information operations.

Oct 8, 2020

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Assaf Orion

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Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

Michael Singh

Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Simon Henderson

Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

Henry Rome

Henry Rome was a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.

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