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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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The US Navy carrier Abraham Lincoln sails alongside an escort destroyer - source: U.S. Navy
Brief Analysis
Only a Credible Offensive Threat Can Deter Iran from Climbing the Escalation Ladder
Amid a flurry of U.S. military deployments and allied diplomacy, it is uncertain if an embarrassed Tehran will attack Israel, but one thing is clear: allowing it to do so again without meaningful consequences would set a dangerous precedent.
Aug 9, 2024
◆
  • Farzin Nadimi
Iraqi cabinet meeting, August 6, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Extent of Terrorist and Militia Fuel Oil Diversion Exposed in Iraq
A mechanism for diverting Iraqi government oil to militias through non-operational factories was recently exposed, creating a panic shutdown of asphalt plants run by Iran-backed terrorists.
Aug 7, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Deadly Rockets Aren’t the Most Serious Threat to Israel’s Northern Border
The 30,000-strong militia has ground forces massed along the frontier, preventing evacuated Israelis from returning home and increasing the risk of a war that both sides would rather postpone for now.
Aug 6, 2024
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  • Matthew Levitt
Houthi colonel Hussein Abdullah Mastour, killed by the US in Iraq on July 30, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Houthi Missile Forces Colonel Killed at Iraqi Government Base in Jurf al-Sakhar
A senior missile specialist from Yemen was killed alongside Iraqi members of Kataib Hezbollah, underlining the government's cooperation with domestic and foreign terrorist groups.
Aug 6, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
Rocket truck used to attack US forces at Al-Asad, Iraq, Aug 5, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What to Make of Recent Attacks on Coalition Bases in Iraq and Syria?
The strikes are not yet numerous enough to form a definitive pattern, but they probably reflect deep militia divisions over whether to renew anti-coalition attacks in earnest amid the Gaza war.
Aug 5, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Iraqi flag
Articles & Testimony
Shia Jihadist State Capture in Iraq
In this chapter from the Jihadist Governance and Statecraft compilation, Michael Knights explores the scope and nature of jihadist governance in Iraq.
Aug 5, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Almustafa uni
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Al-Mustafa International University-Iraq
Far from a normal educational institution, al-Mustafa is the Iraqi branch of a U.S.-sanctioned Iranian entity that seeks to groom the next generation of Iraqi clerics, missionaries, pro-Iran political representatives, and pro-Iran militia members.
Aug 5, 2024
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Turkman hashd
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Schisms: The Dissolution of the PMF Northern Axis
The fall (for now) of a senior Turkmen protege of Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis is a reminder that fortunes, favor, and factions are always shifting within the Iran-backed "resistance" scene.
Aug 5, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
◆ Militia Spotlight
Screenshot excerpt of a StoryMap covering maritime attacks in the Middle East.
Maps & Graphics
Articles & Testimony
Tracking Maritime Attacks in the Middle East Since 2019
An interactive map showing the extent to which Houthi forces, their Iranian military patrons, and other actors have been targeting vessels in regional waterways for years, including well before the Hamas-Israel war.
Aug 3, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Russian president Vladimir Putin inspects a rifle while touring an arms factory in 2014 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Countering Russia’s Strategy of Arming Anti-American Proxies
From rumored Houthi missile upgrades to Libyan arms deliveries by the ton, Moscow is doing all it can to empower hostile forces and undermine stability in the Middle East.
Aug 2, 2024
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Hezbollah’s Retaliation Options and the U.S. Diplomatic Role
Regardless of how the group responds to Israel’s latest leadership strike, its desperation to stop the bleeding will create big diplomatic opportunities for the United States and its partners—if done right.
Aug 1, 2024
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Yezidi women and children at a refugee camp in Iraq - source: Reuters
Video
Brief Analysis
Countering the Islamic State's Gendered Violence and Minority Persecution
To mark the tenth anniversary of the genocide against the Yezidi people, three experts discuss the Islamic State’s minority atrocities, its systematic use of gendered violence, and the related challenges of repatriation.
Aug 1, 2024
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  • Gina Vale
  • Devorah Margolin
  • Pari Ibrahim
◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series
A poster depicts former Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh alongside the Iranian flag in Tehran following Haniyeh's killing in Iran - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will Two Attacks Kill the Gaza Talks and Iran-Hezbollah Deterrence?
Four Washington Institute experts assess Israel’s calculus behind launching such high-profile attacks at this juncture, the likely effects on the Gaza hostage talks, Iran’s possible need for a face-saving military response, and more.
Aug 1, 2024
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  • Dennis Ross
  • David Makovsky
  • Neomi Neumann
  • Farzin Nadimi
Fuad Shukr - source: Twitter/X
Brief Analysis
The Death of a Hezbollah Lifer
For more than four decades, the late terrorist and military commander Fuad Shukr was at the forefront of the group’s most destabilizing activities, from killing American, European, and Israeli soldiers to procuring advanced weapons from Iran.
Jul 31, 2024
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
President of the Federal Supreme Court Jassim Abboud
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Iraqi Federal Supreme Court
Since 2022, the court has become a channel for Iran-backed militias and terrorist groups to secure “made to order” legal rulings that can have decisive political “lawfare” effects in their favor.
Jul 24, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
A fuel depot burns near the Yemeni port of Hodeida following overnight Israeli airstrikes - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link
The humanitarian consequences of Israel’s port attack are real but should not be overstated, particularly when the true culprits behind Yemen’s persistent fuel shortages and famine risks are Iran and the Houthis.
Jul 22, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
Abna M
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Profile: Abna al-Muhandis
A student recruitment and indoctrination group tied to a PMF directorate, with a name that eulogizes a slain U.S.-designated terrorist.
Jul 19, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles
Akram al-Kaabi and a Shahed-101 drone, July 17, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Akram Kaabi Shown Pretending to Assemble a Drone Fired at Israel
The Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba leader released a corny video for Ashura in which he pretended to help with a drone attack on Israel.
Jul 17, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Hamid al-Yassiri on Al-Rabea TV attacking Khazali in July 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Atabat Leader from al-Muthanna Takes on Iran-Backed Militia Interests
The commander of Iraq's influential "shrine militias" signaled that the religious establishment is still willing to push back against the Coordination Framework and Tehran's other "resistance" proxies.
Jul 16, 2024
◆
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
A screenshot from MarineTraffic shows the past tracks of the livestock carrier Shorthorn Express (IMO 9167318), which as of July 2, 2024, was sailing toward the British Isles.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Are the Houthis Attacking Ships in the Mediterranean?
Direct strikes from the Yemeni group are unlikely at the moment, but a more aggressive Hezbollah could alter the threat picture.
Jul 3, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt
Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.
Michael Knights
Michael Knights
Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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