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Military & Security

Policy Analysis on Military & Security

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Brief Analysis
Iran Is Preparing Its Public, But Not (Yet) for Nuclear Compromise
Despite its iron grip at home, the regime generally seeks to build domestic support for its policies—so what outcome has it been prepping the public for during the nuclear talks?
Feb 3, 2022
◆
  • Jason Brodsky
  • Omer Carmi
ISIS leader al-Hashimi, who died in a U.S. special forces raid in Syria on February 2, 2022 - source: U.S. Government
Brief Analysis
Second Islamic State Leader Killed in Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Territory
To shed light on the intentions and capabilities of the jihadist group that runs Idlib province, the Biden administration should clarify its relations with HTS, including any counterterrorism cooperation.
Feb 3, 2022
◆
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
Israeli defense minister Benny Gantz is greeted by a Bahraini defense official upon his arrival in Manama - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Israeli Defense Minister’s Visit to Bahrain Marks Major Advance
Iran is the dominant issue as top officials meet to finalize security pacts.
Feb 2, 2022
◆
  • Simon Henderson
KH fundraising
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Kataib Hezbollah Behind "Grassroots" Iraqi Fundraising for Yemen
The Iran-backed militia tried to make its solo effort to boost the Houthi drone arsenal look like a widely coordinated and highly popular campaign, whereas it was anything but.
Feb 1, 2022
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  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Battle for al-Sinaa Prison: The Enduring Islamic State Threat in Syria
The military response to a major prison attack exhibited the strength of the U.S.-SDF partnership, but it also highlighted ongoing counterterrorism shortcomings.
Jan 31, 2022
◆
  • Ido Levy
Articles & Testimony
Is It Time to Get Tough With Russia?
If Washington wants Putin to act differently, it must demonstrate less risk aversion, whether in Ukraine or in Middle East conflict zones like Syria and Iraq.
Jan 27, 2022
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Sailors aboard a Turkish Naval Forces warship - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will Turkey Help Washington If Russia Invades Ukraine?
Fears of Russian military power may keep Ankara out of the spotlight, but its Black Sea calculations and Crimean Tatar sympathies indicate a willingness to assist behind the scenes if necessary.
Jan 26, 2022
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Qaani in Najaf
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Lionization of Esmail Qaani: Consolidation or Covering Embarrassment?
The Iranian general has never received such intense praise from the Iraqi "resistance," but it may just be his attempt to spin his recent disappointing visit.
Jan 24, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Illustration of chess pieces and the Russian and Ukrainian flags - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Desert Storm: Putin’s Plan to Use America’s Military Playbook Against Ukraine?
The lessons Moscow learned from the 1991 Gulf War and the 2015 Syria intervention reveal much about the strategy, tactics, and weapons systems it might use (or already be using) in Ukraine.
Jan 23, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Articles & Testimony
Russia’s Strategic Success in Syria and the Future of Moscow’s Middle East Policy
Washington’s tacit acquiescence to normalization with a war criminal has shown the world who won the Syria war—and, by extension, what can be gained from challenging U.S. policy.
Jan 23, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Pro-government tribal fighters advance in Marib Province, Yeman - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Breaking Point: Consolidating Houthi Military Setbacks in Yemen
Washington can help preserve the recent coalition gains by categorizing the campaign as defensive, deterring further Houthi attacks abroad, and leveraging the next military deadlock to reinvigorate peace talks.
Jan 19, 2022
◆
  • Alex Almeida
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Houthi Strikes on UAE Open Another Front in Yemen War
As Emirati-aligned forces gain ground on the battlefield in Yemen, the Houthis are trying to raise the costs of Abu Dhabi’s involvement.
Jan 18, 2022
◆
  • Elana DeLozier
Brief Analysis
How to Keep the Islamic State Down in 2022 and Beyond
The group and its offshoots pursue conventional warfare campaigns as a rule, not an exception, so the United States needs to enhance its regional military partnerships accordingly.
Jan 13, 2022
◆
  • Ido Levy
Akram and Abu Fadak, Basra, Jan 1, 2022
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muhandis Replaced by Not One Man, But Two?
Abu Fadak and Akram Kaabi seem to have inherited the PMF and "resistance" parts of the late militia leader's portfolio.
Jan 12, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Abu Fadak
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Abu Fadak Tries to Split the Shrine Units
Recent moves by the senior PMF commander are seemingly aimed at sowing divisions among four key militias that do not answer to the so-called "resistance."
Jan 11, 2022
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Will the Ukraine Standoff Affect the Iran Nuclear Talks?
Some Western policymakers seem to believe that Russia can be helpful on Iran even as it threatens to attack Ukraine, but they’re missing the bigger picture.
Jan 11, 2022
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
A U.S. military helicopter evacuates personnel from the American embassy in Kabul, Afghanistan
Articles & Testimony
Trading Places
After two decades of direct U.S. involvement, what went so wrong in Afghanistan compared to the relative successes seen in Iraq?
Jan 7, 2022
◆
  • David Pollock
Ababil
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Saraya Ababeel Claims Baghdad Drone and Rocket Attacks
A minor sub-group took credit for recent airport strikes, indicating a return to the "facade" strategy and a role for AAH in the latest escalation.
Jan 7, 2022
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Militia with 23mm driving west outside IZ, May 26, 2021
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Making Sense of Militia Attacks in Iraq and Syria in Early 2022
The process of assuaging the militia support base was carefully stage-managed in the first week of the new year, with Iran and Nujaba setting the ground rules.
Jan 6, 2022
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Law Enforcement Shuffle Reflects Concern About Protests
The Supreme Leader and the IRGC are asserting more control over the task of monitoring and managing protest movements, creating yet another intelligence agency in the process.
Jan 5, 2022
◆
  • Amir Toumaj

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