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Middle East

Policy Analysis on Middle East

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Djibouti-flagged Lahar oil tanker
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What Does the Red Sea Crisis Reveal About Sanctioned Ships?
Two sanctioned Russia-linked oil tankers, which were attacked by the Houthis in 2023 and 2024, recently changed their names and are flying the Djiboutian flag amid stricter Western sanctions.
Jan 17, 2025
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Fateful Debate in Tehran
After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.
Dec 30, 2024
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
The Current and Future Houthi Threat to the Middle East
An effective response to the group's persistent aggression should include strengthening the United Nations verification and inspection mechanism, preparing sanctions against actors who violate UN resolutions, and taking steps to interdict arms transfers.
Dec 29, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
Book cover with Iranian missiles, including Shahab-3
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
If Iran Gets the Bomb:
Weapons, Force Posture, Strategy
The decision would require tradeoffs affecting the security, survivability, and military credibility of Tehran's nascent arsenal.
Nov 25, 2024
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Secretary of State Antony Blinken speaking with President Joe Biden
Articles & Testimony
Book Review: “War” by Bob Woodward
The veteran journalist dishes on the Jordanian king’s “man cave,” Biden’s pique at both Netanyahu and Abbas, and Harris’s public versus private diplomatic style.
Oct 21, 2024
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Then Vice President Joe Biden meets with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu in 2010 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Is Diplomacy Doomed?
Once the election year subsides, newly elected governments will need to show political courage and creativity to revive diplomacy’s role in global governance.
Oct 21, 2024
◆
  • Eric Alter
  • Nickolay Mladenov
EU vessel participating in Operation Aspides against the Houthis.
Maps & Graphics
The Ship Operators Shrugging Off Houthi Attacks
While major operators will continue to avoid the Red Sea in 2025, others are launching new services in the high-risk waterway, including some that manage China-linked vessels.
Oct 16, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Is Weakened, But Still Dangerous
The group’s ability to reconstitute its military power will depend on Iran restocking its arsenal; in the meantime, it will likely attempt more terrorist attacks abroad.
Oct 2, 2024
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Houthi missile hits Chios Lion tanker, Red Sea, July 2024.
Maps & Graphics
Houthi Attacks on Russia-Linked Tankers
Available data suggests the Yemeni group has been going after vessels carrying Russian cargo, particularly if an operator's ships have visited Israeli ports.
Jul 26, 2024
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Farzin Nadimi
◆ Maritime Spotlight
Al-Shabab gives goats as zakat (alms) in Somalia.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
In this anthology, contributors discuss the policy challenges associated with an emerging phenomenon, but disabuse readers of any notion that jihadist governance and statecraft should be equated with political moderation.
Jul 10, 2024
◆
  • Devorah Margolin
  • Aaron Y. Zelin
◆ Jihadist Governance and Statecraft
Articles & Testimony
Putin Is No Ally in the War on Terror in 2024
The Kremlin’s legacy of ties to Hezbollah, the Taliban, and other terrorist actors should disabuse Washington of any hope for common cause.
Apr 5, 2024
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Flag of China
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
China’s Governance Workshops Seek to Promote China’s Brand in the Middle East
China is increasingly backing up its narrative of good governance by providing governance training to foreign officials in an attempt to develop the Chinese brand in the Middle East.
Apr 2, 2024
◆
  • Niva Yau
Women in market, Khartoum
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Sudanese Women Trapped Between Conflict and Political Marginalization in Peace Negotiations
Now more than ever, it is crucial to effectively include women's issues in peace talks and transitional negotiations, ensuring that their representation is proportionate to their realities and contributions to society.
Mar 25, 2024
◆
  • Areej Elhag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Islamic State's Response to October 7
The Islamic State’s response to October 7 has centered on shifting their messaging to argue that attacks on targets within IS’ pre-existing areas of operation are relevant.
Feb 9, 2024
◆
  • Ilana Winter
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Militant Empire in the Middle East
The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.
Feb 2, 2024
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Hezbollah March
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
How Iran-Backed Groups Control the Arabic Language Sphere on X
Until Twitter’s moderation policies are strictly enforced and moderation loopholes addressed, coordinated efforts will continue to target independent anti-Hezbollah and anti-Hamas voices on X/Twitter while effectively sharing their own messaging, thus ensuring that in the Middle East, Iran-backed actors maintain their grip on the site.
Jan 26, 2024
◆
  • Samara Azzi
RSF fighters cross Hantoub Bridge
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
RSF’s Battle Successes in Sudan: The Consequences of Legitimizing Hemedti
The group’s success on the battlefield against the Sudanese armed forces is riven by Hemedti’s personal aspirations bolstered by regional players that see him as a new ally in a future Sudanese state.
Jan 10, 2024
◆
  • Areej Elhag
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
With Attention on Gaza, Russia and China Continue Economic and Military Inroads in Arab States
In the last two months, China has continued its regional economic expansion, making concentrated progress with energy and development deals. Though less pervasive, Russia, too, has added to its economic portfolio in the region.
Jan 4, 2024
◆
  • Ana Estrada Hamm
  • Rebecca Redlich
  • Frances McDonough
Brief Analysis
After Gaza, Recalibrated Prospects for a Geopolitical Europe
Much optimism attended the continental response to Russia’s Ukraine invasion, but the October 7 Hamas attacks and their aftermath could dampen aspirations for European unity on the international stage.
Oct 30, 2023
◆
  • Selin Uysal
◆ Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War
Brief Analysis
Arab Critique and Condemnation of Hamas Before October 7, 2023
For years, Hamas was lambasted by leading Arab voices as a terrorist group that worked against Palestinian interests. And then October 7 happened.
Oct 30, 2023
◆ Tracking International Reactions to the Hamas-Israel War

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