Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iran and Russia Are Exploiting America’s Absence in Northeast Syria

By redeploying their military and proxy forces, boosting Assad’s political campaigns, and resorting to various local intimidation tactics, the two countries are increasingly working together on establishing full control in Deir al-Zour.

Jul 29, 2021

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Oula A. Alrifai
Ali Alleile

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Muqawama Are Focusing Attack Claims on U.S. Bases in Syria

Iraqi militias have said more about attacking such bases in the past six weeks than they did in preceding years.

Jul 28, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Syrian flag over a ruined building destroyed by bombing

Articles & Testimony

The Search for a Syria Strategy: What Biden Can Learn From Trump’s Successes and Failures

Washington needs a special envoy to develop a coherent, intelligence-supported political strategy aimed at isolating Assad, limiting his facilitators, and enabling humanitarian NGOs.

Jul 27, 2021

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Andrew J. Tabler

Articles & Testimony

Hezbollah’s Regional Activities in Support of Iran’s Proxy Networks

Despite being a distinctly Lebanese actor, Hezbollah has been ideologically allied with Tehran from its founding, and this deep connection often dictates how it prioritizes competing goals.

Jul 26, 2021

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Matthew Levitt

Articles & Testimony

To Deter Iran, Give Israel a Big Bomb

In addition to renegotiating key parts of the JCPOA, expanding Israel’s arsenal is the best way to keep Tehran off the nuclear weapons threshold.

Jul 23, 2021

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Dennis Ross

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Al-Nujaba Satellite Television

A U.S.-sanctioned "resistance" channel owned and operated by U.S.-designated terrorist movement Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba.

Jul 22, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

The Drones of Kataib Hezbollah's Jazira Command

KH-commanded militia units appear to have exclusive control over Iranian-provided drones, highlighting the group's links to Tehran and its involvement in recent UAV operations.

Jul 20, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Iran Nuke Deal or Not, Some Syrians Still See Assad’s Fall

In their view, the regime remains vulnerable to widening political rifts, nationalist grumbling among military officers, and heightened U.S.-Israeli concerns about Iranian domination.

Jul 19, 2021

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David Pollock

Brief Analysis

Iran Sets Its Eyes on Afghanistan

As it deploys more military forces along the border, Tehran is no doubt mulling various options for securing its interests next door, whether by waging proxy warfare, intervening directly, working with the Taliban, or trying to preserve the status quo.

Jul 19, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Managing Middle East Defense Partnerships Amid Great Power Competition

The U.S. government can counter the narrative of withdrawal by disassociating its regional commitment from the number of “boots on the ground,” building longer-term security cooperation plans, and clarifying its CAATSA sanctions policy.

Jul 13, 2021

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Grant Rumley
Kathryn Wheelbarger

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Are the Muqawama Signaling De-Escalation?

Although attacks on U.S. sites have surged, Iraqi militias appear to be laying the groundwork for de-escalation.

Jul 9, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa Thar Muhandis

This older facade brand has been brought out of retirement during the summer surge of Iraqi militia attacks on U.S. targets.

Jul 8, 2021

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Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 2): Ground Combat Systems

Tehran has bolstered the ground combat capabilities of its proxy militias within the PMF, though the equipment rarely sees combat employment.

Jul 3, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Parade Under the PMF Banner (Part 1): Drone Systems

Drone systems paraded in Camp Ashraf were a show of strength, including the debut of new types of Iranian-provided airframes and control vehicles.

Jul 3, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Biden Wants to Leave the Middle East, But He’s in a Vicious Bombing Cycle in Iraq

Caught between aggressive Tehran-backed militias and a skeptical Congress, the administration needs a better approach.

Jul 2, 2021

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Michael Knights

Articles & Testimony

The Iran Nuclear Deal Isn’t the Problem. Iran Is.

Tehran’s provision of training and weapons to regional militants never stopped even under heavy U.S. sanctions, so the Biden administration needs to do much more than just reinstate the JCPOA.

Jun 29, 2021

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James Jeffrey
Dennis Ross

A man manipulates cables on a bank of internet data servers - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iranian Website Seizures: Avoiding a Blanket Approach

Tehran is increasingly relying on its vast regional propaganda machine to pursue its anti-American objectives, but policymakers need to be simultaneously more precise and more comprehensive in how they counter it.

Jun 29, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

Brief Analysis

Deterring Militias in Iraq: What Works and What Doesn’t

Striking back one time in twelve will not stop Iranian proxy attacks, so Washington must consider more consistent and painful retaliation in order to protect Americans in the Middle East.

Jun 28, 2021

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Michael Knights

Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers

Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.

Jun 27, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?

Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.

Jun 25, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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