Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Navigating Cybersecurity and Surveillance: Iran's Dual Strategy for National Security

While Iranian officials acknowledge the significance of cyber tools and AI for foreign policy, they are acutely aware of the country’s financial and scientific limitations.

Mar 29, 2024

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Nima Khorrami

Brief Analysis

Washington and Europe Need to Get on the Same Page Regarding Iran’s Nuclear Progress

The latest IAEA report shows why the West must refocus on Tehran’s nuclear program, which continues to expand even as international will to address it seemingly declines.

Mar 21, 2024

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Michael Singh

An Azeri woman with an Azerbaijan flag in the Nogorno-Karaback region of Armenia - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Are Azerbaijan and Armenia Heading to Peace?

New regional and international factors are creating conditions conducive to ending their decades-long conflict, with potentially important consequences for Iran, the Ukraine war, and Turkey.

Mar 19, 2024

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

How the Middle East Became an Arena for Putin’s Power Struggle with the US

Russia’s arms sales, military relationships, and paramilitary activity across the region remain central to expanding its local influence and boosting its anti-Western strategic interests.

Mar 9, 2024

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Anna Borshchevskaya

A woman casts her ballot in the 2009 Iranian election - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Five Questions for Iran’s Elections

The vote is more interesting for its long-term implications than its immediate results.

Feb 29, 2024

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Elections Expose Iran’s Fading Democratic Pretensions

The latest election cycle offers further proof that the regime is counting on centralization and open repression as its main tools of control, with elected bodies becoming increasingly irrelevant.

Feb 28, 2024

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Saeid Golkar

Israelis protest demanding the release of hostages held by Hamas - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

From War to Peace in the Middle East? Observations from a Regional Tour

The Washington Institute’s executive director reflects on the feasibility of the Biden administration’s current diplomatic plans in the region, based in part on what local officials said during his recent group trip to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel, and the PA.

Feb 23, 2024

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Robert Satloff

Articles & Testimony

Mideast Failure Leads Biden Back to Trump Policies

The administration has reversed its reversals on certain issues, signaling a more comprehensive approach toward the Houthis, Iraqi militias, Iran sanctions, and more.

Feb 14, 2024

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David Schenker

Esmail Qaani with a Fatimiyoun soldier in Syria

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Explaining Apparent Muqawama De-Escalation Since January 28

Since three Americans were killed, the self-styled "resistance" has been almost inactive except for a spate of fake, foiled, and disavowed attacks, pointing to an order from Iran to calm things down.

Feb 7, 2024

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Abu Baqr al-Saeedi: Kataib Hezbollah Terrorist, Serving PMF Official

The Kataib Hezbollah leader killed on February 7 in Baghdad was (until now) a living nexus of Kataib Hezbollah, the Popular Mobilization Forces, and the facade group Alwiyat al-Waad al-Haq.

Feb 7, 2024

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Liwa al-Tafuf (13th PMF Brigade)

The brigade belongs to the state-funded Popular Mobilization Forces and is a core member of Kataib Hezbollah’s cluster of militias that facilitate anti-U.S. attacks in Iraq’s Anbar province, eastern Syria, and Jordan.

Feb 3, 2024

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Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Militant Empire in the Middle East

The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.

Feb 2, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

A masked Hamas fighter brandishes a rifle in Gaza - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The Only Way to Stop Hamas Is to Stop Iran from Rebuilding It

Tehran may simply revive the group or replace it with another terrorist proxy, so Washington and its partners will need to disrupt the flow of Iranian arms and informal financial support to extremist elements in the West Bank and Gaza.

Jan 31, 2024

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Michael Singh
Matthew Levitt

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Kataib Hezbollah Secretary-General Tries to Forestall U.S. Strikes

Abu Hussein has unveiled a dramatic gambit to sidestep Washington's threatened response to the killing of three U.S. soldiers.

Jan 30, 2024

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

A sign and mural in Tehran promote the Fatteh missile and threaten Israel with the slogan "400 Seconds to Tel Aviv" - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Tehran Makes Gains, But Concerns Persist About Regime Vulnerability

The regime has been able to drive economic growth, stifle mass protests, and expand its infiltration of neighboring countries, but lingering existential concerns could spur it toward even bolder courses of action—including potential nuclear breakout.

Jan 30, 2024

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Patrick Clawson

Satellite view of the U.S. military outpost known as Tower 22, in Rukban, Rwaished District, Jordan October 12, 2023 in this handout image. Source - Planet Labs PBC/via Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Deadly Attack on US Troops in Jordan Marks Major Escalation

Biden now has a hard choice to make: push Israel into a Gaza ceasefire or risk sustained Iran-backed escalation in the region.

Jan 29, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Profile: Hashemite Tribes Regiment

With support from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, this regiment aims to create a more cohesive force capable of opposing the U.S.-backed SDF on the eastern banks of Syria's Euphrates River.

Jan 26, 2024

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Kyle Robertson
Abdullah Hayek

◆ Militia Spotlight: Profiles

Fikra Forum

How Iran-Backed Groups Control the Arabic Language Sphere on X

Until Twitter’s moderation policies are strictly enforced and moderation loopholes addressed, coordinated efforts will continue to target independent anti-Hezbollah and anti-Hamas voices on X/Twitter while effectively sharing their own messaging, thus ensuring that in the Middle East, Iran-backed actors maintain their grip on the site.

Jan 26, 2024

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Samara Azzi

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Deployed in Yemen

Tehran has previously been able to conduct a “hidden-hand operation” via the Houthis at a very low cost, but that price may now be set to rise if allied counter-strikes continue.

Jan 15, 2024

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Jay Solomon

Ships of the US Navy's Fifth Fleet on exercise in the Persian Gulf

Articles & Testimony

Will the U.S.-British Strikes Stop the Houthi Attacks on Red Sea Shipping?

The effectiveness of the joint operation is not year clear, but either way it almost certainly wasn’t the concluding episode in Iran’s long-running game of Gulf proxy warfare.

Jan 12, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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