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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

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Brief Analysis
Khamenei’s Rare Friday Sermon Reflects Four Pressing Concerns
Public anger is exploding over the regime’s mishandling of the airline tragedy, and the Supreme Leader seems to realize that his normal methods of extinguishing unrest and exploiting election cycles may not suffice.
Jan 16, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Video
Articles & Testimony
U.S.-Iran Tensions: Implications for Homeland Security
On January 15, 2020, Ambassador Barbara Leaf testified at a hearing of the House Committee on Homeland Security on the homeland-security implications of ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. The following are her prepared remarks. Chairman Thompson, Ranking Member Rogers, Distinguished members of the Committee, Thank you for
Jan 15, 2020
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  • Barbara A. Leaf
Trump in a Meeting with Putin
Articles & Testimony
Why Soleimani’s Killing Is a Gift to Vladimir Putin
Both Trump and Khamenei need an off-ramp from the latest crisis, and Putin could well become the intermediary.
Jan 11, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross
Video
Brief Analysis
The DEA's Targeting of Hezbollah's Global Criminal Support Network
The head of the Counter-Narcoterrorism Operations Center discusses how the group uses drug trafficking and other schemes to fund its activities, and what the DEA is doing to stop it.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • John Fernandez
Articles & Testimony
How Israel Could Become Part of the U.S.-Iran Story
The IRGC didn’t spend decades and billions building up Iran’s regional satellites for them to simply stand aside if the homeland is attacked, which Trump has vowed to do if the situation escalates further.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • Neri Zilber
Brief Analysis
Eight Reasons Why the United States and Iraq Still Need Each Other
A host of crucial multilateral interests are baked into the U.S. presence, from keeping the Islamic State down, to protecting vulnerable regional allies, to preventing Iran from taking Iraq's oil revenues.
Jan 9, 2020
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  • David Pollock
Brief Analysis
New Khamenei Speech Underlines the Importance of Popular Support for the Regime
Instead of focusing on Iran's missile retaliation or future threats, the Supreme Leader used his latest speech to extoll the virtues of public unity behind the regime’s revolutionary goals.
Jan 8, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah’s Moment of Truth
The group has promised bloody retribution for Suleimani’s death, but in reality it will likely stay focused on rebuilding its own diminished stature at home.
Jan 8, 2020
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russian Reactions to the U.S. Strike on Soleimani
State officials and media are condemning the incident, but Putin is well aware that his fragile role as regional mediator depends on treading carefully around Washington’s unpredictability.
Jan 7, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
In-Depth Reports
Operating in the Gray Zone: Countering Iran's Asymmetric Way of War
The targeted killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani marked the dramatic culmination of several months of U.S. tensions with Iran. It has raised the urgent question of how Tehran will respond, and stoked fears of a broader conflict. Since 1979, the Islamic Republic has distinguished itself as perhaps
Jan 7, 2020
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
Given the IRGC’s recent restructuring, the Qods Force will likely see more continuity than change under Qaani, though his bureaucratic background is a far cry from Soleimani’s brand of charismatic, risky leadership.
Jan 7, 2020
◆
  • Ali Alfoneh
Articles & Testimony
Fears of 'What's Next?' Will Influence Iran's—and the World's—Reactions
If the United States signals its readiness to do more militarily while also considering compromise, it could spur other governments to apply more effective collective pressure on Tehran.
Jan 6, 2020
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Brief Analysis
Soleimani’s Popularity Is Largely Limited to Iran
Mass funerals aside, his image as the quintessential Iranian nationalist made most Middle Easterners wary or actively hostile toward him, so the United States is unlikely to face popular reprisals following his death.
Jan 6, 2020
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
How Soleimani’s Killing Could Make a Stronger Iraq
As Iraq signals its willingness to evict U.S. forces following the airstrike, the time has come for discipline and a focus on shared interests.
Jan 5, 2020
◆
  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Iran May Want Revenge for Soleimani, But It May Need Restraint Instead
The incident might convince Khamenei and his advisors that their meddling in the Middle East is jeopardizing the regime’s domestic stability.
Jan 4, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Does Soleimani’s Death Matter? Findings from a 2019 Workshop
Last year’s Washington Institute forum on post-Soleimani succession suggested that the IRGC would lose a unique coordinating capability and its most important totem once he left the scene.
Jan 3, 2020
◆
  • Michael Knights
Articles & Testimony
Iran Retains Its Ability to Launch Terror Attacks Despite Assassination
Soleimani had multiple deputies with years of experience, and the Iranian security establishment has a tradition of rewarding brazen initiative.
Jan 3, 2020
◆
  • Matthew Levitt
Test - The supreme Leader
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Supreme Leader Responds to the Soleimani Assassination
Khamenei and other regime officials have been quick to swear revenge, but for now they may focus more on stoking patriotic and militaristic sentiment at home.
Jan 3, 2020
◆
  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
How the Soleimani Assassination Could Pave the Way for a New Deal with Iran
What if U.S. officials took advantage of the moment and asked a trusted third party like Oman or Switzerland to test whether Tehran is ready for a quiet diplomatic initiative?
Jan 3, 2020
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Escalation in Iraq: How to Limit the Damage and Reestablish Sovereignty
The Iraqi government’s vociferous condemnations of U.S. defensive strikes may just be rhetorical, but they highlight the stakes involved for a country veering ever closer to perpetual Iranian dominance.
Dec 31, 2019
◆
  • Bilal Wahab

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