Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Figure 1: Rocket and drone attacks on coalition "points of presence".

Iraq’s Drone and Rocket Epidemic, By the Numbers

Attacks on coalition points of presence are increasing in quantity and quality, making U.S. fatalities increasingly likely unless deterrence is restored.

Jun 27, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Have We Already Failed to Ensure That Iran ‘Never Gets a Nuclear Weapon’?

Such weapons have spread surprisingly slowly since the end of World War II, but this template may be changing amid unsustainable ambiguity over the future of Tehran’s program.

Jun 25, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Iran’s Propaganda Outlets Take a Hit

U.S. website seizures are unlikely to have much direct impact on Iran’s media, nuclear, or terrorist activities, but they should serve as another wake-up call about the regime’s ultimate objectives and modus operandi.

Jun 25, 2021

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David Pollock

In-Depth Reports

Accidental Allies:

The US–Syrian Democratic Forces Partnership Against the Islamic State

To some, America's partnership with the SDF exemplified an economy-of-force effort that minimized U.S. casualties and wrested control of northeast Syria from the Islamic State. To others, it was a cautionary tale about a U.S. military hoodwinked into working with a terrorist group.

Jun 22, 2021

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Michael Knights
Wladimir van Wilgenburg

Iranian presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi speaking in 2021

Brief Analysis

Raisi Did Not Win, Reformers Lost

Mass support for reformists has disappeared among Iran’s severely disenchanted electorate, leaving Hemmati and his circle with little means of avoiding dismal turnout and vote tallies.

Jun 22, 2021

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Patrick Clawson

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, casts his vote for president

Brief Analysis

From Rouhani to Raisi: Pressing Questions on the Eve of Iran’s Election

With Ebrahim Raisi’s road to the presidency seemingly paved, the regime has been working to prevent low voter turnout and give him a vote of confidence through a landslide win.

Jun 17, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Sword of Jerusalem vs. Guardian of the Walls: Gaza and the Next Lebanon War

The military particulars of the clash between Hamas and IDF doctrines reveal much common ground with potential future conflicts involving the other members of Iran’s “axis of resistance.”

Jun 15, 2021

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Assaf Orion

Iran's navy commander speaks in front of a map

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Atlantic Voyage: Implications of Naval Deployments to Venezuela or Syria

The maiden voyage may just be a token political and training mission to boost morale—or the first step in sending long-range missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and other materiel to Tehran’s allies in the Caribbean or Mediterranean.

Jun 15, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Figure 1: Qais al-Khazali’s interview with iNEWS TV, June 1, 2021

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Qais al-Khazali's Show of Independence

The militia leader is positioning himself as Iran's equal and close partner, aspiring to comparisons with Hassan Nasrallah and Abdul-Malik al-Houthi.

Jun 14, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Qais al-Khazali Doubles Down on His Muqawama Membership

The militia leader has not hesitated to provide court-quality evidence that he and his movement Asaib Ahl al-Haq are actively involved in attacks on U.S. forces.

Jun 7, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

The Evolution of Iran’s Qods Force Since 1979

By absorbing rival organizations and favoring commanders who lack connections to other regime power centers, the IRGC has used the Qods Force to steadily centralize and monopolize control over the country’s foreign operations.

Jun 3, 2021

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Ali Alfoneh

Articles & Testimony

The Policy Consequences of Arab State Normalization with the Assad Regime

In addition to undermining the Biden administration’s promised focus on human rights, allowing Assad to regain legitimacy abroad would constitute a strategic blunder that cannot be explained away.

Jun 2, 2021

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Oula A. Alrifai
Aaron Y. Zelin

Brief Analysis

Iran Nuclear Watchdog Report Suggests Impact of Suspected Israeli Sabotage

News of apparent enrichment setbacks has been offset somewhat by troubling developments in other aspects of the program, not to mention sharp Israeli warnings, diplomatic uncertainty in Vienna, and a pair of sobering nuclear anniversaries.

Jun 1, 2021

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Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Threats Against Iraq's Government Aired on al-Etejah TV

Kataib Hezbollah's television outlet is still airing false claims about the release of Qasim Muslih, as well as coup threats that draw comparisons to Yemen's Houthi takeover.

Jun 1, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

How Iran Fuels Hamas Terrorism

After playing a key role in the group’s military development for years and navigating deep ideological rifts, Tehran has renewed its extensive sponsorship in ways that contributed directly to the recent bloodshed in Gaza.

Jun 1, 2021

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Ido Levy

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Fake News Surrounding Qasim Muslih’s Arrest (Part 2): Release Claims

Militias made a concerted effort to create the false impression that their colleague had been released immediately, and the claim was soon echoed by major global media outlets.

May 28, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Fake News Surrounding Qasim Muslih’s Arrest (Part 1): International Zone Claims

The first wave of post-arrest deception operations tried to give the false impression that militias controlled the Baghdad zone containing the prime minister's residence, the U.S. embassy, and other sensitive sites.

May 28, 2021

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Michael Knights
Crispin Smith
Alex Almeida
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Iraqi Militias Try, and Fail, to Intimidate the Government

Baghdad effectively enforced the rule of law by detaining a senior militia figure, though it still needs to arrest other murder suspects and show the public that October’s election will be safe.

May 27, 2021

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

A Race of One? Iran Slashes Its Presidential Candidates List

The regime is seemingly removing any obstacle that might prevent Ebrahim Raisi from winning the presidency and, perhaps, succeeding Khamenei down the road, but the risk of further eroding its internal legitimacy is high.

May 25, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

When the Tansiqiya Speaks in AAH's Absence

The May 20 Gaza protest in Baghdad saw the Tansiqiya speak in the notable absence of any Asaib Ahl al-Haq members, and the event was conspicuously ignored by AAH channels.

May 24, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith

◆ Militia Spotlight

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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