Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Iran’s Nukes: This Time the Wolf Is Here

Given the regime’s considerable technical progress, even a good deal would only buy time rather than resolving the long-term nuclear threat.

Dec 10, 2021

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David Pollock

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Akram Kaabi's Revealing Speech

Kaabi has long been Iran's chosen man in the self-styled Iraqi "resistance," and his latest remarks seemed like an attempt to seize control of militia public messaging.

Dec 9, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Lebanon Stands at a Crossroad Between a Painful Revival and a Complete Submission to Iran

The country’s ongoing crises are closely intertwined with Hezbollah’s internal challenges, creating real potential for change if the West stands firmly behind fair elections, judicial accountability, and targeted pressure.

Dec 7, 2021

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Hanin Ghaddar

US Army soldiers fire artillery in Syria

Brief Analysis

The Future of al-Tanf Garrison in Syria

The remote U.S. base remains a relatively low-cost, high-impact tool for preventing an Islamic State resurgence, disrupting hostile Iranian activity, and exerting leverage over Syria’s long-term outlook.

Dec 6, 2021

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Grant Rumley
David Schenker

Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei delivers public remarks.

Articles & Testimony

Tehran Won’t Tolerate a Reset with Washington—But Will Take a Deal

As the previous nuclear agreement showed, U.S. officials don’t need to change the regime’s mind about America’s supposedly nefarious intentions in order to cut a deal.

Dec 6, 2021

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Amir Toumaj

Articles & Testimony

Why Israel (Sort of) Misses the Iran Deal

Given the nuclear program’s advancement under the U.S. maximum pressure policy, a raft of Israeli officials now say the JCPOA was better than nothing—but rejoining it will be difficult.

Dec 6, 2021

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Neri Zilber

Brief Analysis

A New Chance at Kingmaking for Iraqi Kurds

With militias on the back foot, the United States should lean on Kurdish and Iraqi leaders to find unity of purpose in confronting the destabilizing actions of pro-Iran groups.

Dec 1, 2021

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Bilal Wahab

Video

Brief Analysis

How Tehran Views Washington

Researchers discuss Iran’s mindset toward the Biden administration and the country’s prospects for internal change as nuclear talks resume in Vienna.

Dec 1, 2021

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Amir Toumaj
Sanam Vakil

Iranian and international negotiators participate in nuclear talks in Vienna, 2021.

Brief Analysis

Reading Through Iran’s Nuclear Demands

Tehran has maintained its stringent line of insisting that Washington lift all sanctions, verify their removal, and provide future guarantees before it will lift a finger on resuming compliance with the JCPOA.

Nov 24, 2021

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

A Close Encounter of the Propaganda Kind in the Gulf

Despite more structured international maritime security measures, a recent encounter between Iranian and U.S. naval forces reiterated the potential for miscalculation, especially under a more assertive government in Tehran.

Nov 22, 2021

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Farzin Nadimi

Ardeshir Zahedi, then Iran's ambassador to the United States, with Robert F. Kennedy and Lyndon B. Johnson in Washington, DC.

Articles & Testimony

Ardeshir Zahedi: Legend and Lesson

The career of Iran's last pre-revolution ambassador to the United States offers both an example and a warning to American policymakers and diplomats today.

Nov 19, 2021

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Martin Kramer

Fake image of MC-12W Liberty over Baghdad concurrent with Nov 7 attack

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militia Technical Disinformation and the Nov. 7 Drone Attack

To deflect responsibility for the assassination attempt on Iraq’s prime minister, self-styled "resistance" groups have assembled a dodgy dossier of convincing-looking disinformation.

Nov 17, 2021

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Anwar al-Zamani
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Iranian woman drummer with bandmate at cafe

In-Depth Reports

Iranian Perceptions of the U.S. Soft Power Threat

Fearing a Western-inspired overthrow, Tehran has intensified enforcement of morality laws, purged professors from universities, and poured billions of dollars into the creation of a separate national intranet.

Nov 14, 2021

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Amir Toumaj

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Sabereen News Criticizes Iran for Lack of Support

Elements of Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah are seemingly trying to extract domestic and Iranian support for more forceful pushback against their recent political isolation.

Nov 13, 2021

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Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Quadcopters in Syria and Iraq, 2019-2021

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Meltdown, Part 2: Drone Attack on the Prime Minister

Militias followed up Qais al-Khazali's threats against Kadhimi by attacking his residence, shattering the narrative of victimhood they had been building through protests.

Nov 7, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Muqawama Meltdown, Part 1: Protesting the Election

In the wake of their failed election campaigns and other recent setbacks, militias sought to deepen their claims of victimhood and politically damage Prime Minister Kadhimi with protests.

Nov 7, 2021

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Crispin Smith
Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Articles & Testimony

Biden Needs a Plan B for Yemen If Houthis Win

Ending the war under the current circumstances will generate new problems unless further steps are taken to interdict weapons smuggling and bolster security in Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.

Nov 4, 2021

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David Schenker

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Interpreting the Reemergence of the Allies of Syria Operations Room

The recent attack on al-Tanf base and the identity of the Iraqi factions that reportedly helped carry it out indicate Iran's plans to establish a new "deterrence equation" in Syria.

Oct 28, 2021

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Hamdi Malik

◆ Militia Spotlight

USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber

Articles & Testimony

The Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran

Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously, so the Biden administration needs to put the prospect of military escalation back on the table if it hopes to make progress on the nuclear issue.

Oct 27, 2021

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

A Plan B for Iran

Tehran has seemingly concluded that sanctions relief is no longer worth compromising for, so Washington needs to change that calculus by credibly sharpening the consequences.

Oct 25, 2021

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Michael Singh

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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