Iran

Events considered impossible tend to happen in the region with unusual frequency, so when will the next one appear?

U.S. leadership must be buttressed not by unrealistic threats, but by deterrent actions and collective diplomacy that constrain Tehran’s room for attacks while defining the path to negotiations.

Emboldened by their success in attacking Gulf and U.S. interests with relative impunity, Iranian leaders are now aiming to disgrace the Saudi royal family and foster Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election.

The best way to counter Iran’s asymmetric strategy in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere is a U.S. gray zone strategy, which can help manage escalation and buy time for the administration’s pressure policy to work.

U.S. pressure has put Iran in a corner economically but not politically or militarily, so the Supreme Leader seems to believe there is little to lose unless Washington shows it will ease sanctions or launch strikes.

So far, Tehran appears to have judged quite well what it can get away with, a track record that will likely give Riyadh pause as it considers its response.

Baghdad is under pressure to show it can protect its airspace, but procuring Russian or Iranian equipment might complicate U.S.-Iraq relations without addressing the triggers for Israeli strikes.

The current holder of the highest clerical rank in Shia Islam is eighty-nine-year-old Ali al-Sistani, who is based in Najaf, Iraq. Sistani has played an important role in Iraq’s post-Saddam era, supporting political reconciliation and a constitution-based society. While the transnational reach of marjaiya will likely diminish after Sistani leaves the scene, the specific contours of this shift and Tehran's efforts to intervene remain an open question.

The architects of a landmark shift in IDF doctrine explain why the change was necessary, and how it has helped delay full-scale war even while forcefully confronting Tehran’s hegemonic ambitions.