Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Before Maximum Pressure, Trump Needs an Iran Strategy

The administration should first consider how enhanced sanctions would fit into its broader regional policy before talking about how to get them going again.

Nov 14, 2024

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Richard Nephew

Brief Analysis

How to Judge Iranian Response Options Against Israel

Poor internal communications and miscalculation could lead Tehran to continue the cycle by striking again soon, whether directly or through its Iraqi proxies.

Nov 1, 2024

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Patrick Clawson
Michael Knights

Israeli Iron Dome missiles intercept rockets fired into Israel from Gaza by Hamas in October 2023 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Israel’s Missile Defense Performance: Views from the Gulf

In discussing missile defense cooperation with risk-averse Gulf partners, Washington needs to realistically address the specifics of Iran’s latest attack on Israel, including the degree to which defenses were penetrated.

Oct 11, 2024

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Michael Knights
Elizabeth Dent

Brief Analysis

Why Israel Should Focus on Iranian Military and Security Targets, Not Oil Infrastructure

Despite significant vulnerabilities, the redundancies in Iran’s energy production would limit the effects of any strike, while the consequences for Israeli, Gulf, and global energy markets could be significant.

Oct 11, 2024

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Farzin Nadimi
Simon Henderson

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Qais in Tehran, Prominently Seated Behind Khamenei

At a recent event in Iran, the leader of the key Iraqi militia Asaib Ahl al-Haq was strategically positioned in a place of honor directly behind the Supreme Leader.

Oct 7, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

A photo illustration of a hypodermic needle and a poison symbol - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Tehran’s Tactical Knockout: Weaponized Pharmaceutical-Based Agents

Concerns over the regime’s longstanding R&D on weaponized anesthetics and other PBAs have become more pressing given the high risk of transfer to various hostile proxies.

October 2024

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Matthew Levitt

Houthi fighters parade with their missile systems in Sanaa in September 2023 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

A Draw Is a Win: The Houthis After One Year of War

The Yemeni group has strengthened its capabilities and aggressiveness to the point where it may be less vulnerable to international pressure than its Iranian patron.

October 2024

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Michael Knights

Flowers and a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah at a memorial to the slain Hezbollah leader in Beirut - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

How the Death of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Brings a Renewed Opportunity for Mideast Peace

Netanyahu must translate Israel’s military achievements in Lebanon into political outcomes while also preventing far-right nationalists in his coalition from defining what is possible with the Palestinians.

Sep 29, 2024

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Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
Dennis Ross
Steven Tian

Brief Analysis

What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network

Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.

Sep 28, 2024

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Hanin Ghaddar

Brief Analysis

Boosting Military Support to Ukraine Can Help Deter Iran

From facilitating a no-fly zone over Ukraine to interdicting Iranian missile transfers, Washington and its allies have various means of answering the latest strategic shift in the war.

Sep 25, 2024

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Fikra Forum

Iran's Debate about Weekends Highlights Tehran's Ideological Constraints

The debate over making Saturday the official second day of the weekend nationwide instead of Thursday has become a hot topic in Iran in recent months, highlighting the clash between the the regime’s ideology and the country’s economic reality.

Sep 17, 2024

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Saeid Golkar

Brief Analysis

Middle East Developments Overshadow the IAEA Conference

Iranian missiles for Russia, Houthi attacks on Israel, and North Korea’s surprise display of centrifuges have quickly changed the atmosphere of the nuclear agency’s annual meeting.

Sep 17, 2024

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Simon Henderson

Hezbollah fighters parade with flags in Lebanon in 2019 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

Israel and the Coming Long War

To defeat Iran’s "resistance" axis, the IDF needs a new strategy—and a unified country.

Sep 13, 2024

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Assaf Orion

Articles & Testimony

Netanyahu Is Playing Into Khamenei’s Hands

Iran’s leaders are playing a long game; Israel’s leaders are not.

Sep 13, 2024

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Dennis Ross

Articles & Testimony

Easier Said than Done: Renewing Maximum Pressure on Iran

New strategic realities and the ever-present challenge of enforcement would make it difficult to reinvigorate the heavy international sanctions regimes seen in past years.

August 2024

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Richard Nephew

Brief Analysis

Another One-Day War? What the Latest Hezbollah-Israel Clash Reveals About Deterrence and Escalation

Israeli and Lebanese experts join two former U.S. officials to discuss what each party was thinking before, during, and after this weekend’s exchange of strikes—and whether war in the north has become inevitable regardless of near-term de-escalation.

Aug 27, 2024

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Ben Fishman
Hanin Ghaddar
Assaf Orion
Dennis Ross

Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Pezeshkian’s Cabinet Reflects Iran’s Institutional Stagnation

The regime’s preference for ideological commitment over expertise has compromised its bureaucratic hiring processes and led to massive institutional decay, making it unlikely that the new president will be able to fulfill his campaign promises or otherwise govern effectively.

Aug 19, 2024

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Saeid Golkar

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Militias Signal De-Escalation with the U.S., Return to Cosmetic Israel Strikes

The self-styled Iraqi "resistance" has hinted at a desire to end the tit-for-tat sequence of strikes with the United States and return to cost-free counter-Israel operations.

Aug 18, 2024

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Brief Analysis

Countering Iran in East Syria Means Moderating the SDF

Groups supported by Iran and the Assad regime have found some local traction due in part to grievances against the Kurdish-led SDF’s governance strategy in Arab tribal areas.

Aug 16, 2024

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Andrew J. Tabler

President Joe Biden gestures while speaking - source: White House

Articles & Testimony

There Is Still Time to Stop a Wider War in the Middle East

Because the landscape has shifted since April, the Biden administration’s previous script for preventing irreversible escalation may no longer work.

Aug 15, 2024

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Dana Stroul

◆ Risks and Opportunities in the Post-April 13 Middle East

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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