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The War in Iran Could Become Like the War in Ukraine
Also published in Foreign Affairs
Trump’s fifteen-point peace proposal suggests that he recognizes the need to find an off-ramp, but Washington must stay committed to that path to avoid a Russian-style quagmire.
When the United States and Israel started bombarding Iran in late February, President Trump and his advisers likely believed that they could debilitate the regime and the situation would stabilize quickly, as occurred with the military operation to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January. But what has transpired looks more like Russia’s war in Ukraine than Washington’s quick intervention in Venezuela. The fierce Iranian response has led to a war of attrition and possible stalemate similar to the conflict in Ukraine. The United States, like Russia, does not have an obvious way to achieve a decisive victory and risks getting mired in an endless war. To avoid the same mistakes that Russia has made, Washington will likely have to accept a compromise result in Iran. That could include agreeing to a cease-fire in exchange for permanent limitations on Iran’s enrichment of nuclear material, removal of its highly enriched uranium buried in Isfahan and elsewhere, and caps on the country’s ballistic missiles and their range...