Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

High Prices, War in Ukraine, a Cold Winter Ahead—and Now OPEC+ Piles On

The oil cartel’s reported plan to cut production could roil global markets, U.S.-Gulf relations, and American voter sentiment.

Oct 4, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Smoke is seen at a Saudi oil facility in Abqaiq, 2019 - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Will a Sense of Revenge Spur Iran to Attack Saudi Arabia?

While the regime doubles down on its domestic crackdown, it has increased its threatening rhetoric abroad as well, potentially drawing U.S. assets into a new round of military escalation reminiscent of summer 2019.

Oct 4, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Iraqi Militia Group Makes Credible New Threat Against the Gulf States

The facade group in question tends to follow through on its warnings, so its latest rhetoric about using developments in Yemen as cause for new attacks should be taken seriously.

Oct 3, 2022

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Hamdi Malik
Michael Knights

◆ Militia Spotlight

Turkish President Erdogan at a summit with Russian President Putin in Sochi in 2021 - source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

A Domestic Audience for Turkish Foreign Policy

With elections in the balance, Erdoğan is playing a risky game of international normalizations in the hope that the Turkish electorate will approve of economic ties and immigrant solutions.

Sep 30, 2022

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Batu Coşkun
Gökhan Çınkara

Brief Analysis

Kuwait’s Election Offers Insights on Wider Gulf Politics

The vote and the events leading up to it reflect a system in near-paralysis rather than an example for neighbors to emulate.

Sep 28, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Saudi King Gives Up Prime Minister Role to Crown Prince

The transfer further boosts his son’s authority and could even be a prelude to an unprecedented abdication.

Sep 27, 2022

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Regional Security Cooperation Partnerships in the Middle East

The Abraham Accords have substantially increased the region’s options for countering Iranian threats, but the past performance of Arab coalitions should make policymakers cautious about expecting too much from new alliances.

Sep 21, 2022

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David Schenker

MEES map showing Israeli and Lebanese maritime border claims in the East Mediterranean.

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

Israel’s Karish Gas Field: Diplomatic Opportunity or Casus Belli?

Seven experts examine how the fraught decision to start production might affect Beirut’s negotiating stance, Hezbollah’s military calculus, U.S.-Israel relations, and other factors.

Sep 20, 2022

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Simon Henderson
Hanin Ghaddar
Matthew Levitt
Ehud Yaari
David Makovsky
David Schenker
Andrew J. Tabler

Fikra Forum

Pragmatic Re-Balancing: the Saudi Dual Outreach to Israel and Iran

While the Middle East remains littered with flashpoints, Saudi Arabia is reaching out to Israel and Iran in an attempt to defuse simmering tensions and build consensus, with the Kingdom shifting from a confrontational to fence-mending approach.

Sep 20, 2022

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Leonardo Jacopo Maria Mazzucco

Maps & Graphics

Brief Analysis

SDR Allocations in the Middle East: Helpful, but No Silver Bullet

Various governments have made good use of last year’s unprecedented IMF allocation, but the Ukraine war, ongoing debt issues, and other economic problems are a reminder that the region cannot sidestep deeper reforms indefinitely.

Sep 20, 2022

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Jonah Shrock

Articles & Testimony

A New Iran Deal Won’t Prevent an Iranian Bomb

Tehran’s program is far more advanced than in 2015, so only a credible threat of force will stop the regime from crossing the nuclear weapons threshold.

Sep 9, 2022

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Dennis Ross

Fikra Forum

Bahrain Opinion Poll Confirms Sectarian Split on Iran, but not on U.S. or Israel

The Bahraini public provided their perspectives on ties with international partners, moderate Islam, and the country’s economic situation.

Sep 9, 2022

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David Pollock

U.S. Navy image of an Iranian vessel attempting to capture a U.S. naval drone - source: Department of Defense

Brief Analysis

Iranian Seizures Raise Questions About Unmanned Maritime Operations

More trouble may await U.S. vessels unless officials work resolutely to protect them and establish effective guidelines for their safe operation.

Sep 7, 2022

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Responding to the PA’s Mounting Fiscal Crisis

Years of declining international aid, unsustainable public patronage, and controversial policies have pushed the Palestinian government and banking sector to the brink of insolvency.

Sep 1, 2022

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Jonah Shrock
Gabriel Epstein
David Makovsky

Fikra Forum

July/August 2022 UAE Survey Shows U.S. Leads Iran, but Lags Russia and China

Emiratis share their views on global players, regional dynamics, and economic conditions.

Aug 30, 2022

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David Pollock

Fikra Forum

New Saudi Poll Shows Biden's Visit Barely Budged Skepticism

The Saudi public gave mixed reviews on issues such as normalization and ties with the United States, but remained mostly united regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine and relations with Iran.

Aug 26, 2022

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David Pollock

Brief Analysis

Oman’s Economic Success Is Driven by Accountability as Much as Oil

By pushing the government to make more efficient use of higher hydrocarbon prices and a budget surplus of $2 billion, the sultan has helped reduce anxiety about the stability of the strategically positioned Gulf state.

Aug 11, 2022

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Jonathan Campbell-James

U.S., Israeli, Bahraini, and Qatari flags on a mural celebrating the Abraham Accords

Articles & Testimony

A Path to Peace from Biden’s Trip—How the Arab States Can Help

Regional governments are going to reach out to Israel anyway, so why not take advantage of this activity to help the Palestinians and encourage Jerusalem toward constructive moves?

Aug 1, 2022

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Dennis Ross
David Makovsky

President Joe Biden greets Saudi King Salman in Jeddah in July 2022 - source: Reuters

Articles & Testimony

The True Promise of Joe Biden’s Middle East Trip

It is no exaggeration to say that the visit represents a transformation of Washington’s regional approach—including a rethink of the “pivot.”

Jul 27, 2022

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Dennis Ross
James Jeffrey

Photo of Chinese and Emirati leaders walking.

Articles & Testimony

China Below the Radar: Israel-US Strategic Dialogue on Technology

Although the headlines were focused elsewhere, the president’s Israel-Saudi trip included statements, agreements, and newly announced inter-agency dialogues that imply deep implications for China policy.

Jul 26, 2022

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Assaf Orion
Shira Efron

Supported by the

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

The Washington Institute's Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy embodies the Institute's long-term research focus on the conservative Arab Gulf states -- Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman -- and the key role these countries play collectively as a primary source of the world's oil and natural gas.

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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

Regions & Countries

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Gulf States

Policy Analysis on Gulf States

Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy

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