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All Policy Analysis by Soner Cagaptay
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Articles & Testimony
Why Turkey Should Fear Itself
As the death toll in the Ankara bombing rises, watching Turkey has become like watching a disaster unfold in slow motion.
Oct 10, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
The AKP's New Face: Assessing the September Board Vote Ahead of November's Elections
The new governing board has fewer young members, fewer women, and more old-guard members with close ties to President Erdogan, who is betting that this alignment will help the party regain its legislative majority next month.
Oct 8, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Cem Yolbulan
Angelica Kilinc
Articles & Testimony
Turkey Is in Serious Trouble
The country has seen periods of turmoil before, but this time may be different.
Oct 5, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Snap Elections May Not Change Much
Barring a last-minute surprise, President Erdogan's efforts to return his AKP to single-party rule could be hindered by a faltering economy and declining domestic security.
Sep 28, 2015
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Asli Aydintasbas
Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Military Lost Its Favor for Turkey
Despite continued bilateral security cooperation, thirteen years of policy differences have taken their toll on the U.S. military's attitude toward Turkey.
Sep 24, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Sep 23, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Kurds Can Go Their Own Way
Turkey's approach to resolving the Kurdish issue should be rooted in European models and liberal politics, not the Syria war or failed Ottoman-era policies.
Sep 22, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Sep 8, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Sep 1, 2015
◆
Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Aug 25, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
Turkey's Political Uncertainty:
Implications of the June 2015 Parliamentary Elections
More than two months have passed since Turkey's June 7 elections, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost a parliamentary majority it had held since 2002. Given the AKP's inability to form a governing coalition, a new vote will likely be called for later this year. Until
Aug 18, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Implications of Turkey's War Against the PKK
Despite the broken ceasefire, leaders on both sides have political reasons to limit the violence, with Ocalan seeking to reassert his authority over the Kurdish nationalist movement and the AKP looking for a bump in the polls ahead of early elections.
Aug 14, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Kurdish Moment
Erdogan seems intent on forcing early elections by goading the PKK into further violence, but the liberal-Kurdish HDP could trump that plan by remaining committed to peace.
Aug 3, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Aug 1, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Jul 26, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Could Push for Early Elections:
Turkey's Regulatory Bodies in a New Era
Under a coalition government, President Erdogan would likely face a gradual decline in his oft-abused power over agencies that regulate a wide swath of Turkish life, so he might push for early elections to avoid that scenario.
Jul 7, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Mark Bhaskar
Brief Analysis
What Turkey Could Lose and Gain From a Military Operation in Syria
Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.
Jul 2, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Farewell, President Demirel
Among many distinctions, the former leader had a sharp mind and wit, and a passion for U.S.-Turkish ties.
Jun 27, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Reading Turkish Tea Leaves: Speaker's Election Will Offer Clues to Political Future
The very process of choosing a parliamentary speaker will suggest whether a governing coalition will be formed, and including which parties, or whether Turkey will see early elections.
Jun 25, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 3): The AKP-HDP Option
Forming a coalition with the HDP would challenge the AKP's conservative policies at home while improving its ties with Kurds abroad, though it is uncertain whether the armed or political wing of Turkey's Kurdish nationalist movement would benefit most.
Jun 24, 2015
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Soner Cagaptay
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