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Brief Analysis
A Counterterrorism Strategy Disconnected from the Terrorist Landscape
In focusing on cartels and gangs in the Western Hemisphere as well as left-wing extremists, the administration's “radical shift” elides certain threats from the Middle East along with the political right, while appearing to write off diplomacy and capacity building as key tools.
۱۵ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Michael Jacobson
Brief Analysis
Fatah Meets in Ramallah
The first gathering in a decade by the Palestinian Authority’s dominant party will cast light on a post-Abbas future and governance in Gaza, among other issues.
۱۴ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Ghaith al-Omari
Brief Analysis
How to Accomplish U.S. Objectives in Iran
An agreement to open the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting the U.S. blockade could make it easier to ultimately address more complex issues such as Iran’s uranium stockpile, missile program, and support for proxies.
۱۴ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Michael Singh
Brief Analysis
For Iranians to Rise Up, a Clear Path for Regime Defectors Is Needed
Neither the United States nor Israel has offered the concrete incentives needed to spur high-level defections from the security, political, and clerical establishments—a crucial precondition for regime change.
۱۳ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Holly Dagres
Brief Analysis
Trump’s China Trip: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond
The first presidential visit to China in nearly a decade will cover trade, technology, and a range of other bilateral topics, including frank conversations on Middle East subjects such as Beijing’s support to Iran and the wider global repercussions of the Strait of Hormuz crisis.
۱۳ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Grant Rumley
Henry Tugendhat
Elizabeth Dent
Anna Borshchevskaya
Souhire Medini
Articles & Testimony
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the Limits of Gulf Unity
If left unchecked, the reemerging rift between the two Gulf powerhouses could fragment the region into competing poles, further roil markets, and destabilize fragile states in the area.
Spring 2026
◆
April Longley Alley
Articles & Testimony
Between Intent and Capability: Assessing the Lack of Iranian Attacks on the U.S. Homeland
Although the threat may be somewhat diminished by the damage inflicted on Tehran’s security and intelligence agencies, the regime will reconstitute those capabilities over time and may calculate that the benefits of attacking highly vulnerable targets inside the United States outweigh the risks.
۶ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Matthew Levitt
Articles & Testimony
Is There a China Strategy Behind the Iran War?
The Trump administration’s inconsistent China policy is undermining efforts to parlay the conflict into a geopolitical win.
۴ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Michael Sobolik
Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
The U.S. Shouldn’t Lose Sight of the Real Terrorist Threats
From releasing its long-delayed CT strategy document to filling crucial professional vacancies, the administration needs to publicly clarify that countering terrorism—Iranian and otherwise—remains a top national security priority.
۴ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Michael Jacobson
Brief Analysis
Deniable, Disposable, Disruptive: Iran’s Hybrid Warfare in Europe Demands a Proactive Response
The low-sophistication, high-volume approach used in wartime attacks claimed by the front group HAYI has exposed critical vulnerabilities in Western efforts to harden soft targets, curb online recruitment, and protect Jewish communities amid spillover from the Middle East.
۴ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Adrian Shtuni
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Why Iran’s Navigational Order Will Be Difficult to Overturn
Tehran has upended traditional maritime arrangements in the Strait of Hormuz and remains in the driver’s seat despite U.S. pressure, so authorities cannot expect to reverse this shift quickly even if the war ends soon.
۱ مه ۲۰۲۶
◆
Noam Raydan
Brief Analysis
Rebuilding West Bank Refugee Camps: A Shared Interest for Palestinians and Israelis
If coordinated properly, reconstructing—and rethinking—the northern camps destroyed during Operation Iron Wall could help improve refugees’ lives, reduce militant activity, and create a rare shared interest and perceptual shift between Israel and the Palestinian Authority.
۳۰ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
Neomi Neumann
Articles & Testimony
Self-Destruct Mode: Why Government Incompetence Means Even Immediate Peace with the U.S. Would Not Save Iran
Tehran’s ongoing failures in critical areas such as fiscal responsibility, energy, and infrastructure repair are doing even more damage to the country’s economic position than the war itself.
۳۰ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Lebanon After UNIFIL: Good Riddance, Not a “Vacuum”
Whether the UN and Europe agree to align with a limited, U.S.-led mechanism or insist on their own separate missions, Washington and Jerusalem need to contain and closely coordinate any outside involvement in order to safeguard the core goal of disarming Hezbollah.
۲۹ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
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Assaf Orion
Articles & Testimony
The Collapse of Indefinite Detention in Northeast Syria: Implications Seven Years Later for Syria and Beyond
An in-depth look at the swift and dramatic changes that have occurred in Syria’s vulnerable network of Islamic State detention sites, and why the international community can't just “move on” from the issue.
April 2026
◆
Devorah Margolin
Articles & Testimony
Let Iran Defeat Itself
Bailing out the regime’s new batch of hardline leaders would only help them remain a regional menace, so Washington should be very selective about whatever peace deal it signs, leaving room for the Iranian people to seek change themselves.
۲۸ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
Richard Nephew
Brief Analysis
Encouraging European Military Efforts to Reopen the Strait of Hormuz
Although the new European-led military initiative signals a divergence from the current U.S. approach, Washington could still harness Paris and London’s ability to mobilize international action on the shared goal of preventing Tehran from flexing its leverage over global energy markets.
۲۴ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
Souhire Medini
Video
Brief Analysis
Wartime Support to Iran: Implications for the Middle East and Beyond
Three experts explore the regional and global implications of Russian and Chinese support for Tehran, including how much this assistance actually affects U.S. efforts to weaken the regime’s capabilities and bring the crisis to an end.
۲۴ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
Hasan Alhasan
Nicole Grajewski
Matthew Tavares
Articles & Testimony
Round 2: Lebanon-Israel Talks Inch Forward
Given Hezbollah coup threats, Beirut may seek to proceed incrementally toward establishing a state monopoly on weapons, but Washington and Israel will expect quicker results this time.
۲۳ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Support for Russia and Lessons Learned from Ukraine
By taking urgent steps to institutionalize the wartime partnerships formed with (and between) Ukraine, the Gulf states, and Syria, Congress can strike heavy long-term blows against hostile Russian influence in the Middle East.
۲۱ آوریل ۲۰۲۶
◆
Aaron Y. Zelin
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