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ترکیه

Policy Analysis on ترکیه

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Brief Analysis
Israel's Calculus for Reconciliation With Turkey
While the agreement is unlikely to reset relations between two leaders who have profoundly different worldviews, it may catalyze economic and security initiatives that benefit mutual Israeli, Turkish, Palestinian, and U.S. interests.
۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • David Makovsky
Articles & Testimony
Turkey at a Crossroads
The following is an excerpt from the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook 2016. Download the PDF to read Dr. Cagaptay's full contribution. Whether or not Turkey will be able to overcome the multipronged terror threat, social polarization, and political instability will all depend on President Erdogan and his agenda. Erdogan needs to
۱ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Cem Yolbulan
Tuesday Changed Everything
A discussion of how the Istanbul airport attack will affect Turkey's tourism sector, its war footing against ISIS, its domestic political climate, and other key factors.
۳۰ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Istanbul Attack Vengeance Will Be Like 'Rain From Hell'
ISIS may be trying to sow domestic suspicion by not claiming responsibility for the airport attack, but the incident could still spur Turkey into full-scale war against the group.
۲۹ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Regional Charm Offensive: Motives and Prospects
After years of foreign policy setbacks, Ankara is trying to mend fences with Israel, Egypt, Iran, and Russia, and the potential implications for the United States are mostly beneficial -- assuming the Turks can actually pull it off.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • James Jeffrey
Articles & Testimony
Where Does Erdogan Want to Take Turkey?
The leader's distorted view of the Ottoman past may dictate whether the country further embraces Islamization.
۱۵ ژوئن ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Assessing the New AKP Cabinet
Turkey's incoming government reflects the regionalization of political power, outsize influence from religious schools, and the sidelining of Kurds and women, as well as pointing to the emergence of an exclusive governing-party system.
۳۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Cem Yolbulan
Brief Analysis
The PKK Could Spark Turkish-Russian Military Escalation
Russia and Syria's dormant ties with the group have been reawakened by the civil war, raising the prospect of dangerous weapons proliferation and potential escalation into direct conflict with Turkey.
۲۵ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Erdogan's Nationalist Path to a Full Presidential System
By further hardening his approach toward Kurdish nationalism at home and in Syria, Erdogan hopes to woo Turkish ultranationalists and legally enshrine his executive power, but his efforts could clash with U.S. policy on the war next door.
۲۴ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
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  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's War of Attrition With the Islamic State: The Rocket Threat
Ankara's terrorist adversaries have expanded their destructive reach with mobile rocket launchers and other formidable weapons, so deterring the threat will require a similarly robust Turkish approach to procurement, development, and deployment of various military systems.
۱۷ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Can Kasapoglu
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's King: Erdogan After Davutoglu
If the president continues down his path of personalizing power and hollowing out political and civil institutions, he will endanger the country's longstanding democratic makeup.
۸ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Why Turkey Is Unlikely to Alter Its Syria Policy in Wake of Prime Minister's Exit
Davutoglu's departure probably won't change President Erdogan's perception that Turkey has the moral high ground by supporting Sunni rebels in Syria against the Assad regime.
۶ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
In-Depth Reports
U.S. Military Engagement in the Broader Middle East
Reflecting broad foreign policy themes dating to World War I, U.S. grand strategy in the Middle East since the Cold War has focused on establishing and managing a global security system to contain and deter outside threats. Given Eurasia's demographic and economic/technical strength, a dominant power or powers arising from
۳ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Possibilities for a Turkish-Iranian Rapprochement
The prospect of warmer Iranian-Turkish ties is manageable so long as the United States maintains the intent and capability to promote regional security, and assuming Ankara continues to balance any such rapprochement with its ties to the West, Israel, and Arab states.
۱ مهٔ ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • James Jeffrey
Brief Analysis
Israel and Turkey Approaching Reconciliation Amid Policy Challenges
Normalization negotiations seem closer than ever to conclusion and should be encouraged, but significant differences remain, especially on Gaza, Hamas, and Egypt, and they will likely prevent a return to past bilateral intimacy.
۱۹ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Michael Herzog
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Fighting in the Caucasus: Implications for the Wider Region
As Moscow continues its pattern of fomenting conflict and carving up countries in its near-abroad, the United States and regional players such as Iran, Israel, and Turkey will once again feel the ripples.
۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Brenda Shaffer
In-Depth Reports
Ascent of the PYD and the SDF
In this well-documented Research Note, Barak Barfi explores the evolution of the PYD -- the preeminent Kurdish faction in the Syrian conflict -- and its relationship to U.S. objectives.
۷ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Barak Barfi
Brief Analysis
Is Armenia the Next Turkish-Russian Flashpoint?
Although Turkey and Russia are unlikely to erupt into direct conflict, a regional hotspot like Armenia-Azerbaijan could drag Ankara into active engagement, giving the Kremlin ample room to exploit Turkey's sensitive position.
۴ آوریل ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Can Kasapoglu
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Repercussions of the Saudi-Iranian Conflict on North Africa
March 31, 2016 The Iranian Shura Council and Assembly of Experts elections in February have resulted in gains for moderate reformists in a peaceful political contest. The elections’ contrast to the region’s political turmoil brings to mind the ironic words of British Parliamentarian Jock Bruce-Gardyne. In 1966, the politician described
۳۱ مارس ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Nouh El Harmouzi
Turkish president Erdogan - Source: Reuters
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Turkey’s Securitization of the Kurdish Issue: A Dangerous Strategy
March 31, 2016 The recent attack in Ankara, killing 34 people and injuring dozens more, has been quickly blamed on the PKK, even as a few days later the Kurdistan Freedom Falcons (TAK) a break-away faction of PKK, claimed responsibility. The attack was only the latest in a series of
۳۱ مارس ۲۰۱۶
◆
  • Maurizio Geri

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