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ترکیه

Policy Analysis on ترکیه

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Articles & Testimony
Turkey Is in Serious Trouble
The country has seen periods of turmoil before, but this time may be different.
۵ اکتبر ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Snap Elections May Not Change Much
Barring a last-minute surprise, President Erdogan's efforts to return his AKP to single-party rule could be hindered by a faltering economy and declining domestic security.
۲۸ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Asli Aydintasbas
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
How the U.S. Military Lost Its Favor for Turkey
Despite continued bilateral security cooperation, thirteen years of policy differences have taken their toll on the U.S. military's attitude toward Turkey.
۲۴ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Kurds Can Go Their Own Way
Turkey's approach to resolving the Kurdish issue should be rooted in European models and liberal politics, not the Syria war or failed Ottoman-era policies.
۲۲ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Play By Their Rules
Russia and Iran have changed the stakes in Syria, and the United States should act accordingly.
۱۱ سپتامبر ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Turkey Electoral Map 2015
Click here to view full size (PDF)
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۱۵
In-Depth Reports
Turkey's Political Uncertainty:
Implications of the June 2015 Parliamentary Elections
More than two months have passed since Turkey's June 7 elections, in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) lost a parliamentary majority it had held since 2002. Given the AKP's inability to form a governing coalition, a new vote will likely be called for later this year. Until
۱۸ اوت ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Implications of Turkey's War Against the PKK
Despite the broken ceasefire, leaders on both sides have political reasons to limit the violence, with Ocalan seeking to reassert his authority over the Kurdish nationalist movement and the AKP looking for a bump in the polls ahead of early elections.
۱۴ اوت ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The New Great Game: How Regional Powers Are Carving Up Syria
Recognizing the various spheres of influence in Syria and working with its neighbors to stabilize each piece of the puzzle could be a vital first step toward putting it back together again.
۱۱ اوت ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
Turkey's Kurdish Moment
Erdogan seems intent on forcing early elections by goading the PKK into further violence, but the liberal-Kurdish HDP could trump that plan by remaining committed to peace.
۳ اوت ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Israel's Developing Relationship with Cyprus
President Anastasiades will likely use this week's summit to build momentum toward the development of offshore gas reserves, with Iran and other issues making the agenda as well.
۲۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Why Erdogan Could Push for Early Elections:
Turkey's Regulatory Bodies in a New Era
Under a coalition government, President Erdogan would likely face a gradual decline in his oft-abused power over agencies that regulate a wide swath of Turkish life, so he might push for early elections to avoid that scenario.
۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
  • Mark Bhaskar
Brief Analysis
What Turkey Could Lose and Gain From a Military Operation in Syria
Despite its potential short-term political benefits for the AKP, a ground incursion into northern Syria could pose numerous longer-term threats to Turkey, including renewed Kurdish separatism, economic retaliation by Russia, and armed reprisals by the Assad regime, the PYD, and ISIS.
۲ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Farewell, President Demirel
Among many distinctions, the former leader had a sharp mind and wit, and a passion for U.S.-Turkish ties.
۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Reading Turkish Tea Leaves: Speaker's Election Will Offer Clues to Political Future
The very process of choosing a parliamentary speaker will suggest whether a governing coalition will be formed, and including which parties, or whether Turkey will see early elections.
۲۵ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 3): The AKP-HDP Option
Forming a coalition with the HDP would challenge the AKP's conservative policies at home while improving its ties with Kurds abroad, though it is uncertain whether the armed or political wing of Turkey's Kurdish nationalist movement would benefit most.
۲۴ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 2): The AKP-MHP Option
A coalition with the MHP could result in a socially conservative government that exacerbates rather than resolves the Kurdish problem, potentially impeding U.S.-Turkish efforts against ISIS in Syria.
۲۲ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Turkey's Political Scene Post-Election (Part 1): The AKP-CHP Option
A governing alliance bringing together the country's two largest parties could end an era of polarization, but would not be free of challenges.
۲۲ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Brief Analysis
Gas Issue Dominates Cyprus-Israel Agenda
As Israeli and Cypriot officials meet in Jerusalem, energy-thirsty Egypt remains the obvious market for their offshore gas exports, but such deals risk Turkish ire.
۱۵ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
What Turkey's Election Results Mean
The outcome has dealt a blow to the AKP's longstanding dominance and Erdogan's goal of implementing a presidential system, with potential implications for the economy, Syria policy, and the Kurdish movement.
۸ ژوئن ۲۰۱۵
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay

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