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Iran’s Force Multiplier: Tracking the War’s Maritime and Energy Effects

Matthew Levitt

Maps & Graphics

If Washington wants to calm the markets and reach its other energy objectives more quickly, it will have to find a way of de-escalating a shipping crisis that Tehran is clearly taking advantage of in the Strait of Hormuz and beyond.

Military Options for Reopening the Strait of Hormuz: Limitations and Imperatives

Noam Raydan

USS Boxer leads U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz - source: Department of Defense

Loosening Tehran’s grip on the strait and its disruption of the global economy would entail not only reducing threats to navigation, but also increasing pressure on the Iranian economy in order to deter further attacks and create leverage for diplomacy.

How China Could Shorten Iran’s Path to Military Recovery After the War

Michael Eisenstadt
Assaf Orion

Beijing has been mostly talk and little walk so far, but once the war ends, it may decide to help Tehran rebuild militarily in return for oil.

Mar 17, 2026

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Assaf Orion

Great Power Competition During (and After) the Iran War

Three experts examine how Moscow, Beijing, and European capitals are navigating the crisis and what their choices reveal about the future of the global order.

Mar 19, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Souhire Medini
Henry Tugendhat
Grant Rumley

Syria Is Feeling the Fallout from the Iran Crisis

The war’s effects on Syria have largely fallen below the radar, yet no one should forget how much has changed there since 2024, nor how important it is to preserve the government’s accomplishments against Iran and its partners while acknowledging the conflict’s local economic consequences.

Mar 18, 2026

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Aaron Y. Zelin

Defeating Iran’s Strategy: Energy Security and the “Abraham Shield”

Tehran is targeting the soft underbelly of the U.S.-Israeli campaign—the oil sector and vulnerable Middle Eastern states—but allied officials can counter this strategy by taking concerted steps to bolster their regional partners, stabilize oil markets, and suppress the regime's military capabilities.

Mar 16, 2026

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Assaf Orion

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Institute Expertise on All Aspects of the Iran War

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Formerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

Recent Institute Analysis

Can Hezbollah Be Dismantled?

Renewed warfare with Israel aside, Hezbollah will not be permanently undone unless one of two scenarios occurs: regime change in Iran, or the complete dismantlement of the group’s domestic financial system and political power.

Mar 17, 2026

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Hanin Ghaddar

How Russia Benefits from Oil Disruption in the Gulf

The de facto halt to Gulf oil shipments has already helped Moscow win back India as a major oil customer, while the rise in global prices could greatly refresh its depleted Ukraine war budget.

Mar 11, 2026

Bombs Can Weaken Iran’s Regime. They Can’t Replace It.

Noam Raydan
Anna Borshchevskaya

US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise - source: IDF

Iran’s fractured opposition and years of repression make rapid regime change unlikely.

Mar 9, 2026

Keeping Iran’s Proxies on Their Back Feet

Matthew Levitt

Even as the war proceeds, much more must be done to identify how Tehran and its terrorist partners are adapting their procurement and fundraising networks to evolving conditions in the Middle East.

Spring 2026

Washington Should Jump on Ukraine’s Outreach to the Middle East

Matthew Levitt
Michael Jacobson

Photo showing Ukraine's President Zelensky greeting Saudi officials on the tarmac.

By offering military expertise and technology to the Gulf states, Kyiv has given the U.S. government a unique opportunity to counter Iran and Russia while boosting the security of American partners and forces in the region.

Mar 13, 2026

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,

Screenshot of the Iran External Operations interactive map

Iran External Operations 1979-present

Access this powerful interactive tool, which maps over forty-five years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe.

Video: Expert Conversations on the Iran Crisis

Close-up photo of Chinese leader Xi and Russian leader Putin.

Great Power Competition During (and After) the Iran War

Three experts examine how Moscow, Beijing, and European capitals are navigating the crisis and what their choices reveal about the future of the global order.

Mar 19, 2026

Anna Borshchevskaya
Souhire Medini
Henry Tugendhat
Grant Rumley

Israeli Iron Dome missiles intercept rockets fired into Israel from Gaza by Hamas in October 2023 - source: Reuters

Countering Threats from Iran’s Proxies and Partners During Wartime

Three experts discuss how Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis, and pro-Iran militias in Iraq have reacted to the war so far, outlining steps Washington and its regional partners can take to keep them from escalating further.

Mar 13, 2026

Hanin Ghaddar
April Longley Alley
Michael Knights

A map shows the routes of ships into and out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz - source: Reuters

Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War

Four experts explain why reversing the conflict’s effects on oil and gas production and tanker traffic from the Gulf will likely take much longer than many people realize, with only limited supply alternatives in the meantime.

Mar 9, 2026

Lauren Holtmeier
Matt Smith
Richard Nephew
Tomer Raanan

A flight deck crewman directs operations of an F-35 jet on board the USS Abraham Lincoln - source: Department of Defense

The U.S. and Israel Strike Iran

Read or watch urgent insights into America’s objectives in Iran and the policies that would best advance U.S. security, help the Iranian people, and improve the prospects for long-term regional stability.

Mar 2, 2026

Iran’s Western Frontier: Iranian Kurds Navigate Risk and Opportunity

Holly Dagres
Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul
Robert Satloff

Recently in Fikra Forum

Fikra Forum

For the estimated 7 to 15 million Kurds in Iran, the current war represents a narrow window for change, albeit one where the parameters are unclear.

Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

Shukriya Bradost

A Sudanese army soldier stands near a bombed-out vehicle outside Khartoum - source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan.

Jan 22, 2026

Kazakhstan and the Abraham Accords in the Critical Minerals Hedging Game

Areig Elhag

Kazakhstan's entry into the Abraham Accords may be designed to facilitate new critical minerals supply chains, reducing signatories' dependence on

Jan 20, 2026

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi pictured in Damascus in 2025 - source: Reuters

The SDF’s Approach to Integration Talks in Syria and the Risk of Expanded Conflict

Recent clashes between Damascus and the Kurdish forces in Aleppo highlight the risk that stalling integration talks may trigger broader

Jan 15, 2026

Arab Public Opinion 2014 to Today

Fikra Interactive Public Polling Platform Thumbnail

Maps & Graphics

TWI Interactive Polling Platform

Interactive datasets, from 2014 to today

Jun 30, 2022

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Iran’s Force Multiplier: Tracking the War’s Maritime and Energy Effects

Matthew Levitt

Maps & Graphics