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A map shows the routes of ships into and out of the Persian Gulf via the Strait of Hormuz - source: Reuters

SHOCKWAVES FROM THE IRAN WAR

What Kind of Supreme Leader Would Mojtaba Khamenei Be?

Given his strong ties to the IRGC, Khamenei’s son might pursue extreme strategic options.

Mar 5, 2026

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Patrick Clawson
Farzin Nadimi

Protesters display Iranian, Syrian, Palestinian, and Hezbollah flags - source: Reuters

The Wartime Role of Iran’s “Axis”: Countering Proxy and Terrorist Threats

Washington Institute fellows assess how Hezbollah, the Houthis, Iraq’s Hashd, and other Iranian proxies and allies are responding to the war, as well as how the Trump administration and partner governments might counter the risk of terrorist attacks given Tehran’s long track record of foreign plots.

Mar 5, 2026

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Assaf Orion
Hanin Ghaddar
Michael Knights
April Longley Alley
Michael Jacobson
Matthew Levitt

Flags of Israel and Lebanon painted on hands outstretched to each other, overlaying map of Israel-Lebanon border and beyond.

Let’s Not Miss the Huge Opportunity for Peace Between Lebanon and Israel

If President Trump gave the Lebanon front just a fraction of the attention he has directed toward Iran and Gaza, he could wind up with the newest Arab member of the Abraham Accords—and a Nobel Peace Prize.

Mar 8, 2026

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Robert Satloff

Bombs Can Weaken Iran’s Regime. They Can’t Replace It.

Iran’s fractured opposition and years of repression make rapid regime change unlikely.

Mar 9, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Assessing U.S. Progress in the Iran War

While the United States and Israel are winning based on measures like the degradation of Iran’s naval force and missiles, a broader victory will require securing domestic support and avoiding the maximalism that has hindered past American military efforts.

Mar 6, 2026

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Michael Singh

Great Power Spillover from the Iran War: Implications for China, Russia, Turkey, and Europe

Washington Institute experts explain what U.S. officials and military planners should be on the lookout for as great power competitors and close allies outside the region consider their responses to the crisis.

Mar 6, 2026

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Grant Rumley
Henry Tugendhat
Anna Borshchevskaya
Soner Cagaptay
Souhire Medini

War Comes to the Gulf

With Iran seemingly intent on continuing its strikes against Gulf targets and regional leaders mulling whether and how to respond, what can policymakers and military planners expect to see next in terms of likely target sets, risks to civilian areas, concerns over air defense munition supplies, and potential repercussions for energy and commercial shipping interests?

Mar 3, 2026

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Elizabeth Dent
Michael Eisenstadt
Noam Raydan
April Longley Alley

Webcast: Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War

Watch an expert webcast examining the Iran conflict's current and potential impacts on global commerce and energy.

Learn more about this event.

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Institute Expertise on All Aspects of the Iran War

Holly Dagres

A widely cited scholar, Institute Libitzky Family Senior Fellow Holly Dagres has published groundbreaking scholarship on social media use by young Iranians. Curator of The Iranist Substack newsletter, she has been featured in interviews across radio, television, and print, including the Associated Press, BBC News, CNN, NPR, Fox News, and The New York Times.

Noam Raydan

Noam Raydan is a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy who studies topics related to energy and maritime risk in the Middle East. She is a co-creator of the Institute's interactive map of maritime attacks in the Middle East since 2017.

Dennis Ross

Ambassador Dennis Ross, the Institute's Counselor and William Davidson Distinguished Fellow, played a leading role shaping U.S. Middle East policy in the George H.W. Bush, Clinton, and Obama administrations.

Dana Stroul

Fromerly the top civilian official responsible for the Middle East at the Pentagon under President Biden, Dana Stroul is Director of Research and Michael Kassen Senior Fellow at the Institute.

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Explore this new interactive tool to shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Access the map.

Recent Institute Analysis

In the Middle East, Chaos Is Putin’s New Ally

Putin has been using his position in the region to chip away at Russia’s isolation during the Ukraine war, and another Middle East regime change won’t do much to change that strategy.

Mar 5, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya

US Army troops board transport helicopters

Alternative Security Models for Syria Amid U.S. Pullout

By using Syria’s newfound resources as a coalition member and negotiating military assignments at the U.S. embassy, the two governments could offset many of the concerns raised by the withdrawal of American combat units.

Mar 7, 2026

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James Jeffrey

Smoke rises over Tehran at the start of Operation Epic Fury in 2026 - source: Reuters

America and Israel’s War to Remake the Middle East

Much more so than even last year’s war, the two allies are equal military partners in the current fight, but the growing gaps between their publics could impede cooperation on the next set of major policy issues in the region.

Mar 4, 2026

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Dana Stroul

The Long, Sad History of U.S. Regime Change Promises

From FDR to the Bushes, Washington’s pledges to bring “freedom” to the Middle East have ended badly.

Mar 2, 2026

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Robert Satloff

President Trump meets with members of his administration, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and chief of staff Susie Wiles, at the start of major combat operations against Iran in 2026 - source: White House

The Confusion in Washington Spreads from the Top Down

There is the fog of war, and then there is the Trump administration.

Mar 3, 2026

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Simon Henderson

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Montage: Presidents Sisi (Egypt) and Putin (Russia) at the 2024 BRICS summit; a woman holds a Russian flag in Istanbul; a Russia House cultural center in Syria; a map image superimposing Russian flag over Africa/Middle East.

Maps & Graphics

After Ukraine:

Prospects for a Russian Resurgence in the Middle East

Moscow has cultivated ties with U.S. adversaries and allies alike, and Washington must respond by advancing a holistic policy that empowers Ukrainian commercial interests and addresses deficits in sanctions policy.

Jan 23, 2026

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Anna Borshchevskaya
Matt Tavares

Interactive Maps

Screen shot of the Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region interactive map

Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region (Since 2017)

Shed light on the actions of actors such as Iran and Yemen's Houthis that have threatened and attacked commercial shipping in the waters off the Middle East and North Africa.

Screenshot of the Hezbollah External Operations Interactive Map

Lebanese Hezbollah Select Worldwide Activity

Access this interactive map to explore an open-source database of Hezbollah global operations and break through the terrorist organization's "Golden Rule" of secrecy.

Screenshot of the Islamic State Worldwide Activity interactive map

The Islamic State Select Worldwide Activity

Explore the most comprehensive public archive of Islamic State attack data, media output, government designations, and legal cases to understand the organization’s global reach,

Screenshot of the Iran External Operations interactive map

Iran External Operations 1979-present

Access this powerful interactive tool, which maps over forty-five years of Iranian clandestine operations around the globe.

Video: Expert Conversations on the Iran Crisis

A flight deck crewman directs operations of an F-35 jet on board the USS Abraham Lincoln - source: Department of Defense

Video

The U.S. and Israel Strike Iran

Read or watch urgent insights into America’s objectives in Iran and the policies that would best advance U.S. security, help the Iranian people, and improve the prospects for long-term regional stability.

Mar 2, 2026

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Holly Dagres
Dennis Ross
Dana Stroul
Robert Satloff

Video

Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War

Watch an expert webcast examining the Iran conflict's current and potential impacts on global commerce and energy.

Mar 9, 2026

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Lauren Holtmeier
Matt Smith
Richard Nephew
Tomer Raanan

Recently in Fikra Forum

A Sudanese army soldier stands near a bombed-out vehicle outside Khartoum - source: Reuters

Fikra Forum

Pakistan Steps In: Sudan and the Transformation of Regional Security

A $1.5 billion Pakistani arms deal with Sudan signals a regional shift from diplomacy toward military escalation, which may prolong the war in Sudan.

Jan 22, 2026

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Areig Elhag

Fikra Forum

Kazakhstan and the Abraham Accords in the Critical Minerals Hedging Game

Kazakhstan's entry into the Abraham Accords may be designed to facilitate new critical minerals supply chains, reducing signatories' dependence on China.

Jan 20, 2026

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Shivane Anand
Nava Goldstein

SDF commander Mazloum Abdi pictured in Damascus in 2025 - source: Reuters

The SDF’s Approach to Integration Talks in Syria and the Risk of Expanded Conflict

Recent clashes between Damascus and the Kurdish forces in Aleppo highlight the risk that stalling integration talks may trigger broader

Jan 15, 2026

An Iraqi voter dips their finger in ink after casting a ballot in regional elections in Iraqi Kurdistan in 2024 - source: Reuters

Don’t Be Deceived by Reported Electoral Turnout: Analyzing Iraq’s Elections by the Numbers

By comparing the outcome of Iraq's recent elections with the country's demographic trends, a clear difference emerges between the proportion

Dec 30, 2025

Arab Public Opinion 2014 to Today

Fikra Interactive Public Polling Platform Thumbnail

Maps & Graphics

TWI Interactive Polling Platform

Interactive datasets, from 2014 to today

Jun 30, 2022

In Focus: Iran

US and Israeli military planes participate in the 2023 Juniper Oak joint exercise - source: IDF

Bombs Can Weaken Iran’s Regime. They Can’t Replace It.

Iran’s fractured opposition and years of repression make rapid regime change unlikely.

Mar 9, 2026

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Matthew Levitt

Video

Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War

Watch an expert webcast examining the Iran conflict's current and potential impacts on global commerce and energy.

Mar 9, 2026

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Lauren Holtmeier
Matt Smith
Richard Nephew
Tomer Raanan

Great Power Spillover from the Iran War: Implications for China, Russia, Turkey, and Europe

Washington Institute experts explain what U.S. officials and military planners should be on the lookout for as great power competitors

Mar 6, 2026

A USAF F-35 launches a missile in flight - source: Department of Defense

Assessing U.S. Progress in the Iran War

While the United States and Israel are winning based on measures like the degradation of Iran’s naval force and missiles

Mar 6, 2026

Regions & Countries

Issues

Webcast: Energy and Shipping Risks in the Iran War

Institute Expertise on All Aspects of the Iran War

Interactive Map: Maritime Attacks in the MENA Region

Recent Institute Analysis

Study: Russia in the Middle East

Interactive Maps

Video: Expert Conversations on the Iran Crisis

Recently in Fikra Forum

Arab Public Opinion 2014 to Today

In Focus: Iran