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Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
The Fractured Opposition to the Islamic Regime
The Iranian opposition has aligned itself well with the recent protest movement, but evidence of its ability to play an organizational or leadership role in future protests remains limited.
Feb 7, 2023
◆
Ata Hoodashtian
Brief Analysis
Abdullah and Biden Need to Discuss Economics, Not Just Israeli-Palestinian Tensions
Finding ways to contain the mounting violence next door is crucial, but the two leaders should keep in mind that deteriorating economic conditions can pose threats of their own.
Feb 1, 2023
◆
David Schenker
Brief Analysis
The Juniper Oak Military Exercise: Implications for Innovation, Experimentation, and U.S. Policy Toward Iran
Last week’s large, combined exercise was intended to assure friends and deter adversaries, but both goals will ultimately depend on fixing a flawed policy toward Iran.
Feb 1, 2023
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Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
We’ll Need Oil for Decades to Come—and OPEC Needs the High Price
As the cartel’s top players discuss their future production goals, Western leaders are becoming increasingly concerned that oil policy will be warped by Moscow’s desire to grind out a victory in Ukraine and punish Kyiv’s backers.
Jan 31, 2023
◆
Simon Henderson
Video
The Symptom and the Disease: Cholera and State Collapse in Syria and Lebanon
What has caused Lebanon's devastating cholera epidemic, and why haven't authorities and healthcare professionals been able to stop it?
Jan 31, 2023
◆
Hanin Ghaddar
Andrew J. Tabler
Articles & Testimony
The EU Can, and Should, Designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Group
Legitimate policy debates aside, and contrary to recent statements by the EU’s foreign policy chief, Europe has more than enough legal authority and evidence to designate the organization.
Jan 30, 2023
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Matthew Levitt
Brief Analysis
Arab Gulf States Shift Toward More Harmonious Relations
After years of simmering tension, the recent evidence of positive change cannot be ignored.
Jan 30, 2023
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Simon Henderson
Brief Analysis
Sudani’s Wobbly Balancing Act Between Tehran and Washington
Although it is still too early to write the prime minister off as an Iranian lackey, he is on a familiar trajectory for Iraqi governments: doing the minimum necessary to prevent deterioration with Washington while satisfying the voracious demands of his Iran-backed partners.
Jan 27, 2023
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David Schenker
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Akram Kaabi’s Visit to Moscow and Its Aftermath
Russia now feels emboldened to openly host Iraqi "resistance" leaders with no government role—including designated terrorists—to discuss their shared interest in confronting the West and working together in Syria and Iraq.
Jan 27, 2023
◆
Erik Yavorsky
◆
Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Egypt’s Economic Freefall Provides an Opening for U.S. Assistance—and Leverage
Given the tall task of managing public dissent and meeting IMF reform requirements without angering his military base, President Sisi may be more willing to shift his problematic stances on human rights and foreign policy.
Jan 26, 2023
◆
Ben Fishman
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Restructuring Iraqi National Security Institutions in Sudani’s Government
Structural reforms in Iraq’s security services are difficult but necessary to implement to bolster the country’s national security.
Jan 25, 2023
◆
Fawzi al-Zubaidi
Video
Brief Analysis
Civil Society in Tunisia: Resetting Western Policy Expectations
Three experts discuss the relevance and focus of Western efforts to nurture reform in post-revolutionary Tunisia amid recent democratic backsliding by President Saied.
Jan 25, 2023
◆
Sabina Henneberg
Amy Hawthorne
Jean-Louis Romanet Perroux
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
France’s Balancing Act: Mending Relations and Ending Moroccan Visa Restrictions
A recently announced visa decision and a presidential visit to Rabat indicate France’s eagerness to regain its diplomatic position in the region.
Jan 25, 2023
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Frances McDonough
Sabina Henneberg
Articles & Testimony
When Will Turkey Ratify Sweden and Finland’s NATO Accession?
The key to an “F-16s for NATO expansion” agreement lies in the sequencing, with President Biden facing congressional opposition and President Erdogan dealing with economic and election challenges.
Jan 25, 2023
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Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
The UNIFIL Follies Turn Deadly on the Israel-Lebanon Border
The recent murder of an Irish peacekeeper has once again exposed the international mission as a costly failure—one that should be drastically curtailed come renewal time this summer.
Jan 24, 2023
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David Schenker
Brief Analysis
Assessing CENTCOM’s Posture in 2023
To meet ambitious goals with reduced resources, the U.S. military and its regional partners will need to continue expanding their focus on unmanned systems, artificial intelligence, agile combat employment, and integrated air defense.
Jan 24, 2023
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Nathan P. Olsen
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Transnational Muqawama Show Disapproval Via Warithuun Attack on al-Tanf
With probable IRGC-QF acquiescence, a militia facade group struck U.S. targets in Syria to register its defiance against a possible extension of the U.S. presence in Iraq.
Jan 24, 2023
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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Crispin Smith
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Militia Spotlight
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Civil Society in Tunisia:
Resetting Expectations
Reduced U.S. support need not mean abandoning Tunisians or democratization, and can center on directing limited funds more intentionally.
Jan 23, 2023
◆
Sabina Henneberg
Brief Analysis
After Ukraine: Russia’s Potential Military and Nuclear Compensation to Iran
Despite the obstacles to expanded cooperation, Russian aid could help Tehran promote repression at home and instability abroad, so the United States and its allies should seek to deter such collaboration wherever possible.
Jan 20, 2023
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Louis Dugit-Gros
Anna Borshchevskaya
Michael Eisenstadt
Farzin Nadimi
Henry Rome
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Forty Percent of Saudis and Emiratis Still Accept Israeli Contacts, Even Under Netanyahu
Approval for contacts with Israelis remained steady through 2022, even as hesitancy on Abraham Accords continued.
Jan 19, 2023
◆
David Pollock
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