Policy Analysis

Keynote addresses by Walter Mondale, Lawrence Eagleburger, and Richard Murphy. With William Kirby, Daniel Kurtzer, Aaron David Miller, and others.

Vice President Mondale Much has changed over the past year -- in both the Middle East and in Washington. In the region, calm was shattered by the rocks of the Palestinian uprising and suddenly, the U.S. government understood the costs of leaving the peace process on the back burner. The

Over the past eight years, relations between the United States and Israel have benefitted from the addition of a new and vital strategic dimension. American defense and foreign policy officials have begun to appreciate the potential for Israel’s contribution to U.S. and Western interests in the Middle East as evidenced

When the next president enters office, he will be confronted by a Middle East in transformation. The Iraq-Iran war is ending; the Arab-Israeli conflict is reverting to its inter-communal roots; and the arms race is escalating to a new, more dangerous level. As the region adjusts to these new realities

Executive Summary Since the early 1970s, PLO strategy towards Israel has gradually evolved toward an increasingly sophisticated "strategy of phases" for the liberation of Palestine. Though directed primarily against Israel, this strategy has threatening implications for Jordan as well. According to the PLO's "strategy of phases," it is essential for

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The recent rioting and deaths in Mecca have shocked Muslims and confused the world. The hostility which led to bloodshed in the sacred city was prompted in part by the political tensions in the Gulf. But the tragedy is primarily one episode in a lengthy history of pilgrimage conflict between

Notwithstanding the current INF negotiations, the threat posed by tactical ballistic missiles to NATO and Israel will not diminish in coming years. In fact, many military experts feel that the threat will grow. The new generation of missiles, typified by the Soviet SS-21 and SS-23, are about ten times more

Executive Summary Contrary to the forecasts of many oil industry analysts, the current state of relatively low oil prices is likely to continue throughout the nest decade. As a result, there is little reason to fear the economic power of a resurgent oil cartel. The strongest force depressing oil prices

Executive Summary Islamic activism has emerged as one of the most dangerous and destabilizing forces inside Jordan today. The growth of the activist movement has come largely at the expense of a decades-old symbiotic relationship between the Hashemite ruling family and the traditional religious establishment. Several external factors rankled domestic

When the Soviets proposed to meet Israeli representatives for the first time in 19 years, some observers hailed the announcement as a signal that Moscow had finally gotten serious about Middle East peace. With the abrupt breakdown of those talks in Helsinki on Aug. 18, however, that analysis has proven

This Policy Focus presents the highlights of The Washington Institute's Conference on Strategy and Defense in the Eastern Mediterranean, held in Jerusalem, July 9-11, 1986. More than fifty American and Israeli policymakers, journalists and military analysts attended the conference, which was the first academic gathering to examine the development of

In 1982 the United States deployed the Sixth Fleet off the shores of Lebanon in support of the Marines' ill-fated peacekeeping mission in that nation. In October 1985, carrier-based aircraft intercepted the hijackers of the Achille Lauro over the Eastern Mediterranean. In September 1986, the U.S. bombed Muammar Qaddaffi's headquarters

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Executive Summary Israeli military planners must prepare for potential conflict in a strategic environment that is growing increasingly hostile. Forced to deal with worst-case scenarios spread over a 10-year planning horizon, Israeli planning must account for the ebb and flow of inter-Arab alliances. Therefore, Israel must not only ready itself

Executive Summary In 1985, the Middle East peace process came to depend upon the transformation of the PLO into a suitable partner for King Hussein in negotiations with Israel. Throughout the year, however, the PLO proved itself yet again both unwilling and incapable of playing that role. In victory or

As the U.S.-USSR summit approaches, the Middle East has suddenly appeared on the agenda. For the first time, the Reagan Administration must deal with the unpleasant prospect of recreating a Soviet role in the Mideast peace process through an international conference. This premier issue of Policy Focus focuses on the

Executive Summary The supply of sophisticated American weapons to Arab states -- particularly Jordan -- is more disturbing to Israel in 1985 than ever before. This is because Israel's edge in the military balance is steadily eroding. * The Arabs' quantitative advantage continues to grow as their armies garner strength

Executive Summary Although the disincentives to war are great among the parties to the Arab-Israeli conflict, there is little prospect of real movement toward peace. THE REGIONAL CONTEXT: 'NO WAR, NO PEACE' Israel is preoccupied with the withdrawal from Lebanon and its economic crisis. However, Peres may wish to precipitate