Policy Analysis

With the IRGC spearheading the containment effort, the clergy shooting itself in the foot, and the regime widening its cyber-repression, Iran is ripe for an evolution in which Khamenei or his successor give way to de facto military rule.

To make the continent a less hospitable jurisdiction for the group’s criminal schemes, European authorities will have to take the lead in developing cases, armed with firm political will and a more intelligence-driven approach.

Read or watch an expert conversation on the immediate and long-term effects of the Islamic Republic’s response to the pandemic. How will Iranian politics change? How much aid can Tehran get under sanctions? How will the global economic slowdown affect daily life there?

In her December 2019 piece for Quartz, the geopolitics expert Annalisa Merelli identified 20 countries now governed by populist movements and 14 other countries—Iraq included—where populist parties played a pivotal role in policy making. The quick spread of populist movements over the past few years has been a reactionary response

Finding an acceptable process to install a new transitional leader is hard; finding a person with the requisite legitimacy to play that role may be harder still.

When Jordan traced its first case of coronavirus to an individual who had traveled to Italy on March 2, the response was swift. March air raid sirens, which called for a full curfew and social distancing, the likes of which the nation had not witnessed since September 1971. The semi-rentier

Close analysis of Iranian history textbooks indicates that not even the regime regards the 1953 coup as a seminal event in souring bilateral relations.

As the global coronavirus pandemic seems to have placed the world in the eye of a collective storm, with over 120,000 confirmed deaths, the global economy has entered a state of acute stagnation and contraction across diverse sectors, suggesting the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s

Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway.

Although the leadership in Tehran seems preoccupied with the coronavirus, the international community must still watch out for any attempts to exploit the situation via clandestine nuclear activities.

The market appears to doubt that the deal will suffice, and royal family dynamics could push the oil crisis into further rounds.

Europe and the United States can no longer dismiss the strategic and tactical relevance of the regime’s CW attacks, which have continued throughout the conflict and demand further military, diplomatic, and judicial action.

Nassim Taleb used the term “black swan” as a metaphor for unexpected variables that challenge assumptions and approaches. In the span of a short few months, Lebanon has experienced two major “black swan” events, introducing more complexity into an already delicate and difficult political and social climate. The militant, pro-Iranian

The commander’s trip was aimed at uniting Shia militias against the United States and domestic political rivals, but facts on the ground show that the post-Soleimani Qods Force is losing its touch in Iraq.

For years, international mediators have insisted that there is no military solution to the war, but it is also time to recognize that there is no diplomatic solution with Khalifa Haftar.

If Kadhimi’s nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washington’s troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.

After years of failed attempts at talks and ceasefires, COVID-19 may be enough to push the Saudis, Houthis, and Yemeni government to the negotiating table.

Leadership does not require serving in the unsustainable role of international policeman, but it does entail American engagement and a sense of responsibility to other countries.

Reflecting just how emboldened the Houthis have become, their latest ceasefire document advocates maximalist positions on core issues while demanding that other actors foot the bill for reconstruction, reparations, economic recovery, and virus containment.

As U.S. President Donald Trump announced a state of emergency and France’s Macron declared that his country "is at war," Algerians were still waiting for an address from the recently inaugurated President Abdelmadjid Tebboune. The delay was indicative of Algeria’s particular challenges when dealing with the virus—the North African country