Turkey

Turkey's next parliamentary vote is set for June 7, and if predictions hold, the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) will continue a run of dominance that began in 2002. Important issues remain, nonetheless. If the Kurdish nationalist Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) crosses the 10-percent electoral threshold necessary for parliamentary

The unprecedented influx of Alevi deputies could form a significant anti-AKP bloc in the next legislature, but this development could also hurt the opposition CHP if Alevi deputies act in a sectarian manner.

As the West struggles to navigate Islam's major sectarian cleavage, it can learn from the Ottoman Empire's historical experience with Protestant-Catholic wars.

For the long-term benefit of both, Ankara and Erbil share a strong interest in maintaining their partnership.

Arab Spring success stories have generally not been easy to come by, yet one may be playing out in a regional non-Arab state, Turkey, where ties between the Turks and their Kurdish adversaries have been improving.

Amid tensions, Ankara must decide how much U.S. leadership it can stomach and Washington must decide how much it values Turkey as a partner.

While Ankara's decision for or against fighting ISIS will be a political one, the military's lingering resentment toward the AKP, the PKK, and Arabs could be a formidable obstacle to Turkish intervention.

The current stalemate between the two adversaries will persist unless ISIS overreaches or Turkey becomes more proactive in clamping down on jihadists.

Turkey's primary objective in Syria is to oust the Assad regime, so it is unlikely to materially help the besieged enclave without U.S. and Kurdish commitments toward that goal.