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Syria

Policy Analysis on Syria

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Brief Analysis
Lebanese Elections:
Syrian Key Interests Preserved, For Now
The stunning success of several prominent opposition candidates in Lebanon's recent parliamentary elections has been portrayed by much of the Western press as a "defeat" for Syrian interests in Lebanon, and a "loosening" of Syria's grip over its smaller neighbor. Now that the elections are over, the next step in
Sep 7, 2000
Brief Analysis
Hizballah and the Upcoming Lebanese Elections:
Shifting Priorities
Hizballah is shifting its focus from armed resistance to internal matters in anticipation of the upcoming parliamentary elections. Hizballah hopes to translate its "victory" over the IDF and South Lebanon Army into a greater share of domestic political power. Hizballah Secretary-General Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah acknowledges the shift in priorities, stating
Aug 18, 2000
Brief Analysis
Israel-Lebanon Border:
Security Situation Improving
Today, following last weekend's deployment into southern Lebanon by United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), Lebanese security forces fulfilled their commitments and deployed into Israel's former occupied zone. The lack of major incidents and the relative restraint of Hizballah since the IDF withdrew in May surprises some observers, but
Aug 9, 2000
Brief Analysis
Domestic Politics and State Interests in Syria and Israel
Syria’s old power structure is giving way, and new faces are emerging. Bashar al-Asad is well on his way to becoming president. A new generation has also begun to take positions of power in the Ba‘th party hierarchy, the military, the cabinet, and the security organs. Although the old guard
Jun 29, 2000
◆
  • David Makovsky
Brief Analysis
Who Rules Syria?
Bashar al-Asad and the Alawi 'Barons'
The orderly transfer of power following the death of President Hafiz al-Asad, in accordance with Syria’s constitutional succession mechanism, has highlighted the role of the formal power structures of the Syrian state: the presidency, cabinet, National Assembly, and, above all, the Ba’th party. It has, however, obscured the crucial role
Jun 21, 2000
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
The Israeli Arabs and Lebanon:
A New Phase?
The sudden death of Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad on June 10 added confusion and uncertainty to the relations among Syria, Israel, and Lebanon--relations that were already in flux after Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon. One unexpected result may be increased politicization of the Israeli Arabs in northern Israel. Northern Israel and
Jun 19, 2000
Brief Analysis
A New Asad—A New Syria?
Hafiz al-Asad was a cautious and calculating leader, but he had not completed the steps to guarantee a smooth succession to his son Bashar by the time of his death. Nevertheless, Bashar al-Asad will probably become Syria’s next president. There are no significant or immediate threats to his accession. Some
Jun 16, 2000
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Can Bashar al-Asad Hold On in Syria?
Syrian president Hafiz al-Asad had a knack for bad timing. He delayed for years making his son Bashar his formal successor, wanting to get everything just right--and then he died a week before everything was to fall into place to make Bashar the anointed one. It seems very likely Bashar
Jun 12, 2000
Brief Analysis
Hizballah in Lebanon:
What Next?
Having driven the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and its proxy South Lebanon Army (SLA) out of Lebanon, Hizballah faces the momentous decision of what to do next. As the most capable guerrilla group operating in Lebanon, Hizballah’s decision will have profound effects on the security environment not only on the
Jun 1, 2000
Articles & Testimony
U.S. Diplomatic Action Needed in Lebanon
Without U.S. diplomatic intervention, the most likely outcome of last week's Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon is that some radical group — acting under Syrian and Iranian pressure — will launch cross-border attacks on Israel. This could lead Israel to respond with intense artillery fire and air strikes, possibly against Syrian
May 31, 2000
◆
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Hamas's Lessons from Lebanon
Israel's quick withdrawal from Lebanon and the collapse of the South Lebanon Army (SLA) is certain to be studied by Hamas, the main Palestinian Islamist organization. To understand what lessons Hamas may draw, it is useful to look at two recent developments: discussion inside Hamas about "Lebanonizing" the Palestinian territories
May 25, 2000
Brief Analysis
Syria-Lebanon-Israel Triangle:
The End of the Status Quo?
On May 19, 2000, Patrick Seale, biographer of Hafiz al-Asad; Daniel Pipes, editor of Middle East Quarterly; Uri Lubrani, Israel's coordinator of activities in southern Lebanon; and Raghida Dergham, senior diplomatic correspondent for al-Hayat, jointly addressed The Washington Institute's Fifteenth Annual Soref Symposium. The discussion took place just days before
May 25, 2000
Brief Analysis
UNIFIL's Strategy of Risk Aversion
In the wake of the hasty withdrawal from southern Lebanon by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the collapse of the South Lebanon Army (SLA), the role of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) in trying to restore peace to the border area is far from certain. The
May 24, 2000
Brief Analysis
Palestinian Refugees in Lebanon:
New Source of Cross-Border Tension?
While Hizballah still mulls over its options in the wake of Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon–terrorism, political activism, or both–there remains in Lebanon one other sizable community that could be the source of renewed tension and violence: the 350,000 Palestinian refugees. This group has a long and tortured history in Lebanon
May 20, 2000
In-Depth Reports
Syria-Lebanon-Israel Triangle:
The End of the Status Quo? (full transcript)
*Mr. Lubrani's remarks represent his own views and not those of the government of Israel ROBERT SATLOFF: Let me simply open by putting the cards on the table. Mr. Seale, you wrote an obituary for the Syria-Israel peace. Is, indeed, this track dead? If so, why? And if not, why
May 19, 2000
In-Depth Reports
Syria-Lebanon-Israel Triangle:
The End of the Status Quo?
*Mr. Lubrani's remarks represent his own views and not those of the government of Israel. Robert Satloff, The Washington Institute: Mr. Seale, you wrote an obituary for the Syria-Israel peace track. Is this track indeed dead? If so, why? And if not, why not? Patrick Seale: First, I would like
May 18, 2000
Brief Analysis
The Israel-Lebanon Border:
A Primer
On April 16, Israel officially notified the United Nations (UN) that southern Lebanon would be evacuated in accordance with UN Security Council Resolution (UNSCR) 425, adding further weight to the March 5, 2000, announcement by the Israeli cabinet that the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) would "redeploy on the border with
Apr 25, 2000
◆
  • Frederic Hof
Brief Analysis
Who Will Control the Shore and Waters of the Galilee?
Press reporting out of the Middle East in the wake of the failed Geneva summit between Presidents Bill Clinton and Hafiz al-Asad suggests that the territorial dispute between Damascus and Jerusalem has widened and that issues pertaining to the ownership of the Sea of Galilee (also known as the Kinneret
Apr 13, 2000
◆
  • Frederic Hof
  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
An Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon:
Implications for the Middle East and U.S. Policy
On April 5, 2000, The Washington Institute released a new report, The Last Arab-Israeli Battlefield? Implications of an Israeli Withdrawal from Lebanon, and hosted its seven contributing authors at a Special Policy Forum. The contributors include Nicole Brackman, Patrick Clawson, Michael Eisenstadt, Steven Hecker, John Hillen, Frederic Hof, and Gal
Apr 7, 2000
Brief Analysis
Crossing Between Two Tracks:
Barak, Syria, and the Palestinians
The withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) from southern Lebanon announced by Israeli prime minister Ehud Barak looms large. Set for July 7, this withdrawal is closely linked to the Syrian track of negotiations. It will end the fifteen-year status quo of the security zone, with Israel planning to
Apr 4, 2000
◆
  • David Makovsky

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler
Andrew J. Tabler is the Martin J. Gross Senior Fellow in the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics at The Washington Institute, where he focuses on Syria and U.S. policy in the Levant.
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley
Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
David Schenker
David Schenker
David Schenker is the Taube Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and director of the Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics. He is the former Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs.
Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute
Elizabeth Dent
Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.
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