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Sudden Succession Essay Series

The Washington Institute has recently been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect the stability of the respective countries involved, or the region as a whole? What would be the impact on U.S. interests? Would the manner of a leader's departure make a difference? The discussions also probe how the U.S. government might adjust to the new situation or influence outcomes.

Articles in this Series

In-Depth Reports
The King Is Dead! Does It Matter?
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Is a major national leader's departure necessarily history changing? This study suggests that paradoxically, the more successful a leader has been in realizing his goals, the less consequential his exit.
Apr 11, 2019
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  • Martin Kramer
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Biden, Jordan's King Abdullah, Crown Prince Hussein
In-Depth Reports
Preparing for Orderly Change in Jordan When the Time Comes
The kingdom has navigated tricky successions in the past, and many of the elements that allowed it to do so remain in place today.
Nov 22, 2021
◆
  • Ghaith al-Omari
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Iran's Majlis head Qalibaf, former defense minister Dehghan
In-Depth Reports
The 2021 Iranian Presidential Election
A Preliminary Assessment
Whoever wins, the result will intimate deeper trends in Iranian society, such as public support for the regime and the Supreme Leader’s intentions for the country’s future.
Feb 23, 2021
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  • Albert B. Wolf
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Qatar Without Tamim
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Qatar's break with Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors remains unresolved, and rumors circulate of bids to replace Tamim bin Khalifa al-Thani, Qatar’s forty-year-old emir, with one of his historically marginalized rivals.
Jun 15, 2020
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  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
In-Depth Reports
Palestinian Politics After Abbas
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Throughout his tenure as leader of the Palestinian Authority, Mahmoud Abbas has studiously avoided grooming a successor, instead consolidating his control over numerous Palestinian entities and sidelining officials he perceived as threatening to his rule. When he eventually exits the scene, Abbas will leave many leadership roles to be filled—including in the PLO, Fatah movement, and national security agencies.
May 5, 2020
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
  • Ehud Yaari
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Oman After Qaboos: A National and Regional Void
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Gulf nation of Oman has been ruled by Sultan Qaboos since 1970, when he overthrew his own father. The seventy-nine-year-old leader has enjoyed wide popularity, but he has a history of illness. To ensure national stability and continued progress, his successor will have to enact far-reaching economic reforms, aimed especially at broadening the economy beyond its current oil dependence. At the same time, a new sultan will need to navigate challenges posed by powerful neighbors such as Iran, the UAE, and Saudi Arabia.
Dec 30, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
A Caretaker President Clings to Legitimacy in Yemen
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In 2012, during a moment of national and regional consensus, the reserved, nonthreatening Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi was chosen as temporary president of Yemen. But Hadi, now seventy-four years old, has held onto power ever since, despite lacking a large base of domestic loyalists. Most important for the Yemeni people, the war needs to end with either a transitional council or elections so that a future leader enjoys the popular legitimacy Hadi lacks.
Dec 10, 2019
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  • Elana DeLozier
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Bahrain After the Prime Minister
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Bahrain’s prime minister, Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, has held his position since 1971, the year his country gained independence from Britain, but he is now eighty-four and evidently in uncertain health. Potential candidates to replace him include Crown Prince Salman or even a much younger nephew, Nasser bin Hamad, mirroring the generational handover in Qatar and Saudi Arabia. But the Khawalids, an influential, once-sidelined branch of the ruling family, also merit attention as Bahrain nears the end of an era.
Nov 26, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Kuwait City at sunset.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Kuwait: A Changing System Under Stress
Sudden Succession Essay Series
In a Gulf region experiencing sharp tensions, how might a leadership transition in Kuwait affect a much-needed node of stability?
Oct 4, 2019
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  • Kristian Coates Ulrichsen
  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
In-Depth Reports
Shia Leadership After Sistani
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The current holder of the highest clerical rank in Shia Islam is eighty-nine-year-old Ali al-Sistani, who is based in Najaf, Iraq. Sistani has played an important role in Iraq’s post-Saddam era, supporting political reconciliation and a constitution-based society. While the transnational reach of marjaiya will likely diminish after Sistani leaves the scene, the specific contours of this shift and Tehran's efforts to intervene remain an open question.
Sep 10, 2019
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  • Ali Mamouri
  • Mehdi Khalaji
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
MbZ and the Future Leadership of the UAE
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Attempts by the de facto leader of the United Arab Emirates, Muhammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan, to consolidate power and pursue an activist regional policy have drawn criticism from other emirates, including Dubai. If a compromise candidate eventually emerges to lead the UAE, it could reshape the country’s posture in the region as well as relations with the United States.
Jul 16, 2019
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
In-Depth Reports
Lebanon: Future Leadership of the State and the State Within
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Taif Accord, which ended Lebanon’s civil war almost three decades ago, stipulated that the country’s president be Christian, the prime minister be Sunni, and the parliament speaker be Shia. Today, two of these figures—President Michel Aoun and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri—are in their eighties, and both demonstrate sympathy for Hezbollah, the Shia militia and party that serves as a national power broker.
Jun 11, 2019
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
In-Depth Reports
A Fifty-Year Reign? MbS and the Future of Saudi Arabia
Sudden Succession Essay Series
Whether the young Saudi crown prince ultimately ascends to the throne will entail plenty of plot twists, but it also holds serious implications for the kingdom, the region, and U.S. interests.
Apr 22, 2019
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  • Simon Henderson
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series
In-Depth Reports
Sudan: The End Comes for Bashir
Sudden Succession Essay Series
The Washington Institute has recently been sponsoring a series of discussions about sudden succession in the Middle East. Each session focuses on scenarios that might unfold if a specific ruler or leader departed the scene tomorrow. Questions include these: Would the sudden change lead to different policies? Would it affect
Apr 15, 2019
◆
  • Alberto Fernandez
◆ Sudden Succession Essay Series

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