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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Brief Analysis
Iran and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Despite the recent focus on Iraqi weapons of mass destruction (WMD), Iran poses a greater long-term threat to U.S. interests in the Persian Gulf. Iran possesses a large chemical weapons (CW) arsenal consisting primarily of first generation (World War I era) agents, and it is believed to have a nerve
Mar 4, 1998
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD):
Unresolved Issues
The agreement hammered out by UN Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi President Saddam Hussein resolving (at least temporarily) the most recent crisis over access to suspected WMD-related sites in Iraq fails to address the fundamental problem the international community faces in Iraq: Baghdad's continued refusal to comply with UN
Feb 27, 1998
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing the UN-Iraq Accord:
Impact on Iraq, UNSCOM, and U.S. Policy
The Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) signed by United Nations (UN) Secretary General Kofi Annan and Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Tariq Aziz marks a turning point in the approach of the international community toward the regime of Saddam Hussein, and the activities of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) and International Atomic
Feb 24, 1998
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Nuclear Weapons Program:
Past, Present, and Future Challenges
Iraq's nuclear program consisted of two elements: a long-range program dating back to the early 1980's and a crash program initiated after the 1990 invasion of Kuwait. Has Iraq not invaded Kuwait, its long-range nuclear program, involving the enrichment of uranium by various means, probably would have yielded a small
Feb 18, 1998
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Biological Warfare Program:
Past, Present, and Future Challenges
1974: Iraqi BW program begun at Salman Pak as the al-Hazan Ibn al-Hathem Institute under the Ministry of Higher Education and Scientific Research. Funded by Iraqi Intelligence Ministry, first employees are Ministry of Defense personnel (subsequent employees recruited from universities). Initially a joint effort to produce weapons for both clandestine
Feb 6, 1998
Brief Analysis
Iraq’s Weapons of Mass Destruction:
Current and Future Challenges
UNSCOM has been able to establish that in the second half of 1986, Iraq began work on at least fifteen different missile systems, in hopes of finding a weapon that would allow them to put pressure on Iran to end the war. Iraq has admitted to all fifteen of these
Jan 24, 1998
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy and Chinese Proliferation to Iran:
A Small Leap Forward?
Iran has been a key issue in this week's U.S.-China summit. Two weeks ago, Beijing promised to halt the transfer of antiship missiles to Iran and, in the run-up to the summit, the Chinese provided written assurances to Washington that it will not initiate any new nuclear cooperation with Iran
Oct 31, 1997
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Halting Russian Aid to Iran's Nuclear and Ballistic Missile Programs
This past weekend, Vice President Gore and the President's special envoy on Russian-Iranian proliferation issues, Ambassador Frank Wisner, arrived in Moscow to meet with Russian Premier Viktor Chernomyrdin and other senior officials. Topping the agenda was a subject of growing concern for U.S. policymakers: Russia's deepening involvement in the proliferation
Sep 25, 1997
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
In-Depth Reports
The Middle East in America's Global Agenda:
Defining Priorities in Relations with Russia, China, and Europe
Keynote addresses by Thomas Pickering and Aaron David Miller. With Rajan Menon, Reuvan Merhav, Arnold Kanter, Paul Wolfowitz, Dominique Moisi, Michael Sturmer, and Donald Bandler.
Sep 19, 1997
Brief Analysis
Chemical and Biological Terrorism:
Threat and Response
Biological terrorism is very much a threat that we need to worry about. However, terrorists will face a number of formidable obstacles to conducting a successful biological attack. These include acquiring the agent, cultivating it and preparing it for dissemination, developing a means of dissemination, selecting and reconnoitering the target
May 12, 1997
Brief Analysis
Dismantling Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction:
A Progress Report
UNSCOM was established in April 1991 to monitor along with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Iraqi compliance with Resolution 687 (the cease fire resolution that concluded the 1991 Persian Gulf War). Resolution 687 requires Iraq to dismantle its weapons of mass destruction (WMD), and links the lifting of the
Feb 5, 1997
In-Depth Reports
Iranian Military Power:
Capabilities and Intentions
In 1989, following a costly eight-year war with Iraq, Iran initiated a major military build-up intended to rebuild, expand, and modernize its ravaged armed forces and thereby transform itself into a regional military power. Iran's quest for nuclear weapons, its naval build-up in the Persian Gulf, its efforts to undermine
Aug 1, 1996
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Articles & Testimony
Still Not Bomb-Proof
Five years after Operation Desert Storm, Iraq once again may not be far from producing an atomic bomb. With its known nuclear infrastructure largely dismantled, restrictive sanctions greatly complicating the acquisition of sensitive technology abroad and scores of UN weapons inspectors combing the countryside, how can this be? The fact
Feb 26, 1996
In-Depth Reports
Intelligence and the Middle East:
What Do We Need To Know?
Preface In the post-Cold War era and with the emergence of new security challenges to U.S. interests around the globe, the U.S. intelligence community has come under intense scrutiny. Indeed, the principal mission of the newly-established Presidential Commission on Roles and Capabilities of the U.S. Intelligence Community -- whose ranks
Apr 1, 1995
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  • Ellen Laipson
In-Depth Reports
Extending the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty:
The Middle East Debate
Extending the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty: The Middle East Debate Executive Summary The debate in the Middle East over the possible extension of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) at the April 1995 review conference has emerged as one of the key determinants of whether the treaty will be extended. Egypt ratified
Feb 1, 1995
In-Depth Reports
Challenges to Peace in the Middle East
During the struggle to establish the State of Israel, David Ben Gurion once told his colleagues, "Five years are nothing next to eternity, but not all years in history are alike, and in the next five years the fate of our generation may be decided, if not the fate of
Sep 23, 1994
In-Depth Reports
Proliferation for Profit:
North Korea in the Middle East
Since the 1955 Bandung conference of non-aligned countries, North Korea has based its foreign policy on the concept of chu'che (self-reliance) and has sought to establish an independent position in the developing world so as to acquire international legitimacy. Its motivations for involvement in the Middle East have gradually shifted
Jul 1, 1994
In-Depth Reports
Iraq: Options for U.S. Policy
The Clinton administration inherited a flawed Iraq policy from the Bush administration, but, in formulating a new policy, it has failed to accurately define those flaws. Its emphasis on "depersonalizing" the conflict with Iraq by shifting the focus from Saddam Hussein to Baghdad's compliance with relevant UN resolutions may mean
Jun 1, 1993
In-Depth Reports
Radical Middle East States and U.S. Policy
The challenge posed to the United States by the radical regimes in the Middle East -- Libya, Iraq, Iran, and Syria -- is one of the most important foreign policy issues facing Washington today. These regimes, although weakened by the demise of the USSR, have by no means been disabled
Jun 1, 1993
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  • Barry Rubin
In-Depth Reports
The Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Middle East
We are approaching an anniversary that I'm sure is etched in your minds, the thirtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, when we faced hostile, nuclear- tipped missiles less than 100 miles from our shores. As President Kennedy prepared to respond to this threat, he sent envoys to each of
Apr 27, 1992
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  • Gordon Oehler

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