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Proliferation

Policy Analysis on Proliferation

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Articles & Testimony

When Will Iran Be a Nuclear Power?

When will Iran achieve "nuclear status"? When other states form their own policies on the assumption that Iran has nuclear weapons—whether or not it has declared or tested a nuclear bomb. The earliest warning will probably come from Iran acting in a more assertive manner. Despite all the concern in

Patrick Clawson

The Risk of a Nuclearizing Middle East

The statements about Iran's nuclear program made by the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Muhammad ElBaradei, have served as an eye opener for many Turkish officials, both from civilian and military ranks. They are now taking Iran’s activities in the nuclear field much more seriously and

Articles & Testimony

Right Course on Iran

Susan E. Rice ["We Need a Real Iran Policy," op-ed, Dec. 30] derides as "bizarre" President Bush's statement that "we're relying upon others" to take the leadership role in stopping Iran's nuclear program. She dismisses out of hand the Bush administration's acceptance of European leadership on this issue, claiming that

Patrick Clawson

Influencing Iran's Nuclear Activities through Major Power Cooperation

This is the second in a two-part series on diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program. Read Part I. The Iran nuclear issue will be on the international agenda in the coming months. The often-postponed visit to Tehran by the head of Russia's Atomic Energy Agency (Minatom) Alexander Rumyantsev to sign

Patrick Clawson

Carrots for Iran?

Lessons from Libya

This is the first part of a two-part series on diplomacy surrounding the Iranian nuclear program and looks at U.S.-European relations. Read Part II. As European and Iranian officials began negotiations December 14 on whether to make permanent Iran's temporary suspension of uranium enrichment, eight former Western foreign ministers issued

Patrick Clawson

Clarifying and Strengthening the Iran-European Nuclear Accord

On November 25, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors will meet to consider Iran's nuclear program, in light of the November 14 Paris Accords between Iran and Britain, France, and Germany (the E3). If the Paris Accords are going to work as a stepping-stone toward ending Iran's

Patrick Clawson

The IAEA and Iran:

The Perils of Inaction

Deep divisions among the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), currently meeting in Vienna, continue to hamper U.S. efforts on two key fronts: pressing Iran to suspend work on its nuclear program, and referring allegations of Iranian violations of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to the UN

Michael Eisenstadt

Middle East Weapons Proliferation:

Lessons from Iraq and Beyond

New Lessons Regarding Proliferation The culmination of Operation Iraqi Freedom has given rise to much debate concerning the exact nature of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Similarly, ongoing negotiations with Iran regarding its nuclear activities have also been dogged by imprecise intelligence and unclear strategies. Both of these

Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

Implications of a Nuclear Iran

Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia The emergence of a nuclear Iran could alter the balance of power in the Middle East, leading to a heightened risk of conflict, and possibly nuclear war. This raises several questions: How close is

Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

Desperately Seeking WMD

BOOK REVIEW Disarming Iraq By Hans Blix Pantheon, 285 pages, $34 Hans Blix has produced a straightforward, easy-to-read account of the UN's Iraq inspections and the crisis at the UN in the lead-up to the 2003 Iraq war. With its clear style and blunt but polite language, Disarming Iraq will

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Libya's WMD Renunciation:

How to Consolidate and Replicate

Testimony before the House Committee on International Relations, Hearing on Weapons of Mass Destruction, Terrorism, Human Rights, and the Future of U.S.-Libyan Relations I will confine myself to two issues: first, how to consolidate Libya's apparent decision to give up weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and second, how to replicate

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Delay, Deter and Contain, Roll-Back:

Toward a Strategy for Dealing with Iran's Nuclear Ambitions

Recent revelations regarding Iran's nuclear program have reinforced suspicions that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons option, and may be a few short years away from acquiring "the bomb." While senior Iranian officials have repeatedly stated that Iran is not seeking nuclear weapons and that the possession and use of

Iran between Elections and the IAEA

To no one's surprise, the Iranian parliamentary elections resulted in a conservative sweep; the hardliners had rigged the rules so as to prevent a serious contest. As the hardliners consolidate their control, they may be interested in improving relations with the United States, though a major initiative would likely appear

Patrick Clawson

Articles & Testimony

Musharraf's Mess

Thursday's front page of the New York Times has a breathless account of Pakistan's rogue nuclear network, and quotes British engineer Peter Griffin as saying he had been a supplier to Pakistan for two decades. To my knowledge, the last time Peter Griffin was quoted anywhere was on the front

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

"My father told me that if ever anything happened to him, I was to call you," said the plaintive, attention-grabbing voice of a young Pakistani woman on the telephone to me Sunday. Her father, a nuclear scientist, had been detained by Pakistan's feared Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). They had come in

Simon Henderson

Pakistan's Nuclear Proliferation and U.S. Policy

Recent media reports suggest that rogue Pakistani scientists have been peddling nuclear secrets across the Middle East for many years. The revelation offsets recent good news from the region -- Iran's acceptance of nuclear inspections and Libya's agreement to give up weapons of mass destruction. The spread of nuclear secrets

Simon Henderson

Europe, Syria, and Weapons of Mass Destruction

Syrian president Bashar al-Asad's January 6 interview with London's Daily Telegraph -- in which he indicated that Syria would not relinquish its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) capabilities until Israel did so also -- suggests that Syria is not likely to follow Libya's recent example of foregoing WMD in order

Articles & Testimony

Responding to Iran's Nuclear Challenge

Delay is Victory

The late 2003 IAEA deal at its best addresses only a small part of the Iranian nuclear proliferation threat; at its worst, the deal could become a significant obstacle to responding to the Iranian nuclear threat. The test will come over time -- which is convenient for the Bush administration

Articles & Testimony

The Prospects for Nuclear 'Roll Back' in Iran

Although it may not be feasible now or in the near future, the U.S. should not exclude the possibility at some future date of nuclear roll back in Iran -- particularly in light of Libya -- s recent surprise decision to scrap its nuclear, chemical, and ballistic missile programs. Since

Articles & Testimony

The Challenges of U.S. Preventive Military Action

Excerpted from Checking Iran's Nuclear Ambitions, ed. Patrick Clawson and Henry Sokolski (Carlisle, PA: Strategic Studies Institute, 2004), pp. 113–128. For some U.S. policymakers and military planners, Israel's 1981 raid on Iraq's Osiraq nuclear reactor may serve as an object lesson regarding the potential benefits of preventive military action against

Michael Eisenstadt

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Featured experts

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

Michael Singh

Michael Singh is the Managing Director and Lane-Swig Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute.

Simon Henderson

Simon Henderson

Simon Henderson is the Baker Senior Fellow and director of the Bernstein Program on Gulf and Energy Policy at The Washington Institute, specializing in energy matters and the conservative Arab states of the Persian Gulf.

Henry Rome

Henry Rome was a Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, specializing in Iran sanctions, economic, and nuclear issues.

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