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North Africa

Policy Analysis on North Africa

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Enough Theory, European Strategic Autonomy Needs Practice in the Middle East

Libya, Iraq, and the Strait of Hormuz provide three test cases where greater assertiveness and transatlantic cooperation could go hand in hand, but only if European countries receive genuine U.S. support to step up their operational efforts and diplomatic engagement.

Charles Thépaut
Pierre Morcos

Articles & Testimony

Erdogan Will Play Biden, But Stick to Putin

The new U.S. administration will have a brief, early window to exert leverage, but Erdogan’s asymmetric relationship with Moscow may keep him from substantially altering Turkish policy on the S-400 dispute and regional issues.

Soner Cagaptay

Frech president Emmanuel Macron inspects the site of the Beirut port explosion

Articles & Testimony

A Matter of History, Diasporas, Diplomacy and Security: French Foreign Policy Drivers in MENA

French decisionmaking in Lebanon, Libya, Iraq, Syria, and other regional states is shaped by an adaptive but strategically consistent mix of security interests, economic relations, diplomatic activism, and cultural outreach.

Charles Thépaut

Cairo’s Concerns About a Biden Presidency

Egyptian leaders fear that his administration will openly confront them on human rights and enable an Islamist resurgence, but the outlook is brighter for engagement on Turkey, Israel, and other issues.

Haisam Hassanein

Violence Erupts in Western Sahara

If the long-frozen conflict descends into full-blown war, it would undermine U.S. interests in one of the few relatively stable corners of the Arab world.

Sarah Feuer

Terrorism in France: New and Old Trends in Jihadism

Three experts on European jihadism discuss the root causes and operational significance of recent Islamist violence in France.

Laurence Bindner
Hugo Micheron
Aaron Y. Zelin

The Sudan Agreement: Implications of Another Arab-Israel Milestone

The latest deal shows how firm U.S. pressure, quiet contacts with Israel, and domestic political breakthroughs can help Arab governments advance normalization even in the face of popular opposition and past military conflict.

Ehud Yaari

Articles & Testimony

Bandar Speaks Out: The Changing Landscape in the Mideast

Palestinian leaders previously never had to acknowledge their mistakes or account for missed opportunities, preventing them from learning critical lessons and adjusting their behavior.

Dennis Ross

Arabs Taking Risks for Peace: Stories from the Frontlines of People-to-People Contact with Israelis

Courageous Arab civic actors discuss the enormous hurdles they have faced in engaging with Israelis and supporting broader social and legislative normalization.

Ismail Sayyid Ahmad
Sukina Meshekhis
Ahdeya Ahmed Al-Sayed
Mohamed Al-Hammadi
Joseph Braude

Articles & Testimony

Franco-Turkish Competition Ascendant

Given their sharply diverging views on conflict zones, secularism, and regional spheres of influence, the two states are swiftly becoming NATO’s next diplomatic hotspot.

Soner Cagaptay

Beyond the Ceasefire in Libya

Publicly committing to a ceasefire is a positive development, but many details still need to be resolved with active U.S. support, especially security arrangements in central Libya and the speedy resumption of oil exports.

Anas El Gomati
Ben Fishman

Articles & Testimony

The Role of Russian Private Military Contractors in Africa

Moscow’s growing use of international legal loopholes in Libya, Sudan, and other countries gives it a worrisome template for chipping away at the global order without confronting the United States directly.

Anna Borshchevskaya

New Egyptian Legislation Aims to Reduce Al-Azhar’s Authority

The latest twist in the long battle for control over Egypt’s religious realm could have profound implications for the state’s ability to regulate—and thus reform—Islamic discourse.

Sarah Feuer

Normalization Is Making Cairo Uncomfortable

The UAE’s deal with Israel may render Egypt a junior partner in future peace diplomacy, aggravating its existing frustration over years of financial dependence on the small Gulf state and a string of foreign policy setbacks.

Haisam Hassanein

Articles & Testimony

Turkey’s Search for Oil May Spill Over into Conflict with Greece

The current flare-up centers on differing interpretations of international law—a situation that should be employing lawyers but is instead deploying navies.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Moscow and Ankara Will Continue Uneasy Cooperation

Putin set a trap for Erdogan long ago, and because the Turkish leader woke up too late to his predicament, he now has little leverage in the unequal bilateral relationship.

Anna Borshchevskaya

East Mediterranean Energy Rivalries Face Harsh Economic Realities

Even if acute diplomatic differences are resolved, low natural gas prices will have a cooling effect on regional energy initiatives.

Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Russia Looks to Long Term While Navigating Libya Chaos

Moscow has intervened for self-serving reasons and claims neutrality despite clearly picking a side.

Anna Borshchevskaya

Political Instability Deepens in Tunisia

The prime minister’s resignation throws the country into political uncertainty at a time of mounting economic challenges, coronavirus fears, social unrest, and potential spillover from the Libya conflict.

Sarah Feuer

Sudan on Edge: An Inevitable Fall or a Better Way Ahead?

Washington needs to go fast on Sudan, not slow, frontloading relief to bolster the civilian government while warning regional leaders not to use the country as another geopolitical football.

Alberto Fernandez

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