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What If Saddam Accepts?

If Saddam Hussein accepts the Soviet peace proposal, President Bush will face a difficult dilemma. The President will have to choose between accepting terms for an Iraqi withdrawal which could well leave Saddam in power with much of his military capability intact and rejecting the Soviet terms with all the

The Iraqi Artillery Threat

Artillery has historically been the principal cause of casualties on the modern battlefield, and Iraq's large, advanced, and diverse inventory of artillery pieces is one of the major strengths of its ground forces. Given Saddam Hussein's strategy of inflicting maximum casualties on U.S. forces, artillery will likely play a central

Michael Eisenstadt

The New Importance of Air Defense

While the Defense Department's Fiscal Year 1992 budget was largely drawn up prior to the Gulf crisis, in at least one area DoD has tried to learn an early lesson from the war. The United States in the future will have to devote increasing attention to the air defense mission

Can Air Power Win the War?

After nearly three weeks of sustained air operations, and over 45,000 sorties (half being offensive missions), the principal goal of the war -- the liberation of Kuwait -- remains unrealized. The allied air campaign against Iraqi forces in the Kuwaiti theater of operations has several major objectives: • The destruction

Michael Eisenstadt

Iraq's Republican Guard

Iraq's elite Republican Guard -- the best armed and trained unit in the army -- comprises the mainstay of its ground force's offensive capability, and the principal pillar of Saddam Hussein's regime. Republican Guard units in southern Iraq and Kuwait also form the backbone of Iraq's defenses there. Their destruction

Michael Eisenstadt

Soviet Policy in the Gulf:

A Change for the Worse?

Today's report from the BBC that several hundred Soviet military advisors remain in Iraq, actively servicing that country's sophisticated military hardware and command and control system, is, if true, a worrisome development. It would be the latest in a series of recent events that raise the fear that the USSR's

John Hannah

Assessing Iraq's Al-Husayn Missiles

The launch of more than two dozen Al-Husayn missiles during the opening days of the current war has emphasized the importance of missiles in Iraqi military strategy. Striking military and civilian targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia could pose severe political problems for the United States. Israel could be dragged

The Air Campaign against Iraq:

A Preliminary Assessment

At 2:35 a.m. Baghdad time, allied aircraft initiated the first phase of what will probably be a prolonged and intense air campaign against Iraq. Up to 1000 U.S. and 200 allied combat aircraft may have participated in the initial strike. In all, nearly 1700 allied aircraft are in theater, versus

Michael Eisenstadt

A Quick and Decisive War?

At midnight, the January 15 deadline for Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait will expire without the slightest hint that Saddam Hussein intends to leave. President Bush's "gut instinct" and the conventional wisdom of Washington's experts have both been confounded. Confronted by a massive array of force, Saddam Hussein has not decided

Taking Out Baghdad's Missiles

If the U.S.-led coalition goes to war against Iraq, one of its primary objectives will be the elimination of Iraq's surface-to-surface missiles. However, even a skillfully planned and executed air strike is unlikely to destroy all of Iraq's missiles, which threaten civilian population centers throughout the region and large military

Michael Eisenstadt

In-Depth Reports

Restoring the Balance:

U.S. Strategy and the Gulf Crisis

Executive Summary Iraq's invasion of Kuwait on August 2, 1990, dramatically transformed the Middle East and America's relationship with it. While seeking success in today's crisis, the United States must also focus on how to promote the long-term prospects for regional stability. A critical objective should be to help forge

Air Power and the Gulf Crisis

How important is air power? This question dominates the current debate about U.S. military options against Iraq, and has a significance for the shape of U.S. forces following the current crisis. Though the military significance of U.S. air power is uncertain, the United States should fully exploit this capability if

In-Depth Reports

Israel and the Gulf Crisis:

Changing Security Requirements on the Eastern Front

The Gulf crisis has set into motion several fundamental strategic changes along Israel's eastern front that, taken together, could dramatically alter Israel's security requirements in the West Bank. The Israeli government would then find it even more ddifficult to offer far-reaching concessions in negotiations with the Palestinians. Three major changes

Dore Gold

Iraq's Nuclear Program:

The Key Questions

President Bush and other senior administration officials have focused attention on the threat posed by a nuclear Iraq to America's interests in the Middle East. It is generally agreed that Iraq can develop a sizeable nuclear military capability within the next decade. But the significance of this program in both

In-Depth Reports

Iraq's Economic and Military Vulnerabilities

"Will sanctions against Iraq work?" is a question too ambiguous to be useful. It leaves unspecified such key issues as what we want sanctions to accomplish and how Iraq would react if sanctions started to pinch. And, then, how much does Saddam Hussein care about what happens to Iraq's economy

Patrick Clawson

In-Depth Reports

The Bush Administration's Strategy toward the Gulf Crisis

On September 14-16, 1990, The Washington Institute held its fifth annual Policy Conference at the Wye Plantation. The following is an edited transcript of one speaker's remarks. Read a summary of the full conference. We are now seeing not just the outlines of a post-war security order, but the outlines

A New Security Structure for the Persian Gulf:

What Does the United States Have in Mind?

Secretary of State Baker's idea of developing "a new security structure" for the Middle East has been the subject of much attention. What specifically does the U.S. have in mind? The most honest answer is not much. It appears that, in raising the idea, Secretary Baker was for the most

John Hannah

Meeting in Amman:

The Perils of Negotiation

As UN Secretary-General Perez de Cuellar begins diplomatic contacts in Amman with Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz, the Gulf crisis moves, at least temporarily, into a phase of negotiations. But negotiations can be as dangerous as battle -- leading to escalation, defeat, or even disaster. U.S. policy must be flexible

Barry Rubin

In-Depth Reports

'The Sword of the Arabs':

Iraq's Strategic Weapons

Since the conclusion of the Iran-Iraq war, Iraq has intensified, expanded, and diversified its effort to enhance its strategic capabilities, including efforts to develop or acquire unconventional weapons, long-range strike systems, and strategic reconnaissance systems. Iraq has traditionally aspired to be a regional power and its new strategic capabilities provide

Michael Eisenstadt

In-Depth Reports

The Future Battlefield and the Arab-Israeli Conflict

The revolution now taking place in the technology of war is one with potentially dramatic implications for the Arab-Israeli military balance. In this important book. two Middle East military experts assess the impact of technological innovation on Israeli and Arab military forces. They concentrate primarily on Israel and Syria, since

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Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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Featured experts

Michael Eisenstadt

Michael Eisenstadt

Michael Eisenstadt is the Kahn Senior Fellow and director of The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program.

Michael Knights

Michael Knights

Michael Knights is the Jill and Jay Bernstein Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute and cofounder of the Militia Spotlight platform, which offers in-depth analysis of developments related to Iran-backed militias.

Grant Rumley

Grant Rumley is the Meisel-Goldberger Senior Fellow and Director of the Diane and Guilford Glazer Foundation Program on Great Power Competition and the Middle East at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

Elizabeth Dent - source: The Washington Institute

Elizabeth Dent is a Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.

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