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Military & Security

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A Turkish soldier stands guard at a rally. Image source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Turkey vs. the YPG: What’s Next?
As Ankara and Moscow mull a potential exchange of Syria border incursions for Idlib concessions, Erdogan risks endangering his intertwined goals of improving Turkey’s economy and minimizing tensions with Washington.
Nov 16, 2021
◆
  • Soner Cagaptay
Articles & Testimony
Helping Syria’s Kurds Weigh Their Options
By reassuring its Kurdish allies via temporary diplomatic, military, and economic measures, Washington can gain greater leverage over Russia and other players at acceptably low risk and cost.
Nov 15, 2021
◆
  • David Pollock
Sabereen logo
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Sabereen News Criticizes Iran for Lack of Support
Elements of Asaib Ahl al-Haq and Kataib Hezbollah are seemingly trying to extract domestic and Iranian support for more forceful pushback against their recent political isolation.
Nov 13, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Video
Brief Analysis
The Future of Putin's War in Syria
A former U.S. ambassador to Russia joins two experts for a discussion on what the six-year intervention can tell us about Moscow’s broader foreign policy.
Nov 8, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
  • Lester Grau
  • Michael McFaul
Quadcopters in Syria and Iraq, 2019-2021
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Meltdown, Part 2: Drone Attack on the Prime Minister
Militias followed up Qais al-Khazali's threats against Kadhimi by attacking his residence, shattering the narrative of victimhood they had been building through protests.
Nov 7, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Michael Knights
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Sit-in tent, Baghdad, November 6, 2021
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Muqawama Meltdown, Part 1: Protesting the Election
In the wake of their failed election campaigns and other recent setbacks, militias sought to deepen their claims of victimhood and politically damage Prime Minister Kadhimi with protests.
Nov 7, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Biden Needs a Plan B for Yemen If Houthis Win
Ending the war under the current circumstances will generate new problems unless further steps are taken to interdict weapons smuggling and bolster security in Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea.
Nov 4, 2021
◆
  • David Schenker
Putin's War in Syria book cover
In-Depth Reports
Putin's War in Syria
Russian Foreign Policy and the Price of America's Absence
The Russian leader defied expectations of a quixotic, costly outcome for his country’s 2015 intervention in Syria. As it actually played out, explains Anna Borshchevskaya in her recently published book, Russia leveraged the conflict and U.S. inaction to position itself as a leading power in the Middle East.
November 4, 2021
◆
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Rocket
Brief Analysis
Militia Rocket Attacks on the Iraqi National Intelligence Service
Such attacks are a specialized subset of violent militia actions, with the most recent incident likely undertaken by Asaib Ahl al-Haq.
Nov 2, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Nujana Syria 2
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Interpreting the Reemergence of the Allies of Syria Operations Room
The recent attack on al-Tanf base and the identity of the Iraqi factions that reportedly helped carry it out indicate Iran's plans to establish a new "deterrence equation" in Syria.
Oct 28, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Brief Analysis
Turkey’s F-16 Request May Not Stave Off the Inevitable
Washington and Ankara have significant diplomatic and security incentives for considering the deal, while rejecting it outright would likely hasten Erdogan’s drift into Putin’s orbit.
Oct 28, 2021
◆
  • Grant Rumley
  • Soner Cagaptay
USAF ground crew directs a B-1 Lancer bomber
Articles & Testimony
The Threat of War Is the Only Way to Achieve Peace with Iran
Tehran no longer takes Washington seriously, so the Biden administration needs to put the prospect of military escalation back on the table if it hopes to make progress on the nuclear issue.
Oct 27, 2021
◆
  • Dennis Ross
Iraqi forces marching
In-Depth Reports
Back to Basics
U.S.-Iraq Security Cooperation in the Post-Combat Era
Questions about the viability of the Iraqi security forces—brought into sharp focus by the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan—require a data-led analysis of where the forces are today and what mix of U.S., NATO, and European efforts can help them thrive in the future.
Oct 26, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Alex Almeida
U.S. and Iranian flags
Articles & Testimony
A Plan B for Iran
Tehran has seemingly concluded that sanctions relief is no longer worth compromising for, so Washington needs to change that calculus by credibly sharpening the consequences.
Oct 25, 2021
◆
  • Michael Singh
Tanf
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militia Propaganda Around the Attack on al-Tanf
Iraqi militia actors appear to have had forewarning of the attack, reflecting an increasing focus on anti-coalition operations in Syria.
Oct 22, 2021
◆
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
Articles & Testimony
Discordance in the Iran Threat Network in Iraq: Militia Competition and Rivalry
Hardline groups are struggling to satisfy demands for action against American forces while simultaneously de-escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and evolving their non-kinetic wings.
Oct 21, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
  • Hamdi Malik
Anti air
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Iraqi Militias Show Off Iranian Anti-Air Missile
Iran-backed resistance groups are seemingly staging missile "discoveries" as a way of warning off coalition air forces.
Oct 21, 2021
◆
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Figure 2: Ahmad Abdal-Sadah, muqawama-affiliated commentator on al-Etejah TV, May 27, 2021.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Militias Issue Post-Election Threats Against UNAMI and the UAE
After their humiliating defeat in the parliamentary election, Iran-backed groups launched a bizarre campaign against UN and Emirati officials.
Oct 19, 2021
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
◆ Militia Spotlight
Soldiers at sunset
In-Depth Reports
A Vanishing West in the Middle East
The Recent History of U.S.-Europe Cooperation in the Region
To encourage a new multilateralism, Europe will need to gain credibility on hard security matters, the United States will need to reimagine how it deals with allies, and both will need to figure out when to let Middle East countries handle Middle East problems.
Oct 19, 2021
◆
  • Charles Thépaut
Articles & Testimony
While Washington Argues, Iran Makes Nuclear Advances
A closer look at the technical progress being made under the country’s new nuclear chief—and his potential links with the Pakistani scientist who first gave Tehran weaponization know-how.
Oct 15, 2021
◆
  • Simon Henderson

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