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Military and Security

Policy Analysis on Military and Security

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Video
Brief Analysis
The Persistent Threat from the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda: The View from the UN
The head of the UN team charged with monitoring each group assesses their prospects for bouncing back and recommends further steps that governments can take to counter them.
Feb 6, 2020
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  • Edmund Fitton-Brown
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Idlib and Its Environs: Narrowing Prospects for a Rebel Holdout
During the war years in Syria, the northwest, specifically Idlib, has become a site of heavy internal displacement. Observers on the ground recognize the green buses traveling to Idlib carrying migrants who have refused reconciliation agreements with the Damascus regime. Since around 2014, a range of jihadist, Islamist, and Salafi
Feb 5, 2020
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  • Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi
Brief Analysis
Continuity vs. Overreach in the Trump Peace Plan (Part 2): Security, Refugees, and Narratives
By granting Israel much more say over the sovereignty of a future Palestinian state and its ability to absorb refugees, the document may undermine the administration’s ability to build an international coalition behind its policies.
Feb 4, 2020
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  • Ghaith al-Omari
Video
Brief Analysis
Shia Militias in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon Post-Soleimani
Will the various regional militias once controlled by Qasem Soleimani continue to take sometimes-unwanted direction from Tehran after his death? Read or watch a spirited conversation with three experts.
Jan 30, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
  • Phillip Smyth
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Video
Brief Analysis
The New Status Quo in Northeast Syria: Humanitarian and Security Implications
Three leading experts assess the current balance of power and its potential effects on counterterrorism, refugee resettlement, governance, economics, and other crucial issues.
Jan 29, 2020
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  • Wladimir Van Wilgenburg
  • Gonul Tol
  • Dana Stroul
Articles & Testimony
Soleimani Is Dead: The Road Ahead for Iranian-Backed Militias in Iraq
Iraqis have expressed broad political, religious, and public support for checking the militias more quickly, so the U.S. government should take several steps toward that end.
Jan 27, 2020
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  • Michael Knights
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russia’s Growing Interests in Libya
As in other conflict zones, Moscow cares little about reaching a peace deal so long as it can outmaneuver the West strategically while securing port and energy access—with private contractors playing an increasingly important role.
Jan 24, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
Brief Analysis
Iranian Succession and the Impact of Soleimani’s Death
The general’s peerless domestic stature would have served a crucial mediatory role during the eventual transition to Khamenei’s successor, so his death brings significant uncertainty to that process.
Jan 23, 2020
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  • Mehdi Khalaji
Articles & Testimony
The New Iranian General to Watch
The regime has promoted a hardened veteran of the Lebanon front, raising questions about the IRGC’s next steps following Soleimani's death.
Jan 23, 2020
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  • Matthew Levitt
Iranian rockets and flag
Brief Analysis
Lifting the Arms Restrictions on Iran: What Will and Won’t Change
UN limits on Iranian weapons transactions will expire in a few short months, and even snapback sanctions may be insufficient to prevent proliferation of dangerous arms to and from the regime.
Jan 23, 2020
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  • Farzin Nadimi
Brief Analysis
Who Is Mohammad Hossein-Zadeh Hejazi, the New Deputy Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
The general’s background includes often-buried links to the pre-revolutionary MEK, along with a sobering record of transforming the Basij into a fine-tuned engine of domestic repression and organized vigilantism.
Jan 22, 2020
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  • Ali Alfoneh
Brief Analysis
Expediting Evidence of Iranian Attacks: The Aramco Case
Internal components that are common across Iran’s illicit weapons transfers and domestic manufacturing industry can help investigators link the regime to attacks in the region.
Jan 21, 2020
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  • Tim Michetti
Brief Analysis
Making the Most of the Berlin Conference on Libya
If the latest conference is to succeed, the principal actors stoking the civil war must endorse a genuine ceasefire and a return to Libyan internal dialogue.
Jan 17, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
  • Charles Thépaut
Video
Articles & Testimony
U.S.-Iran Tensions: Implications for Homeland Security
On January 15, 2020, Ambassador Barbara Leaf testified at a hearing of the House Committee on Homeland Security on the homeland-security implications of ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. The following are her prepared remarks. Chairman Thompson, Ranking Member Rogers, Distinguished members of the Committee, Thank you for
Jan 15, 2020
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  • Barbara A. Leaf
Brief Analysis
Ceasefire or Escalation in Libya?
After the fall of Sirte, Erdogan and Putin’s desired ceasefire can only be achieved with Washington’s support.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
How Israel Could Become Part of the U.S.-Iran Story
The IRGC didn’t spend decades and billions building up Iran’s regional satellites for them to simply stand aside if the homeland is attacked, which Trump has vowed to do if the situation escalates further.
Jan 10, 2020
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  • Neri Zilber
Russian president Vladimir Putin and foreign minister Sergei Lavrov
Brief Analysis
Russian Reactions to the U.S. Strike on Soleimani
State officials and media are condemning the incident, but Putin is well aware that his fragile role as regional mediator depends on treading carefully around Washington’s unpredictability.
Jan 7, 2020
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  • Anna Borshchevskaya
In-Depth Reports
Operating in the Gray Zone: Countering Iran's Asymmetric Way of War
The targeted killing of IRGC Qods Force commander Qasem Soleimani marked the dramatic culmination of several months of U.S. tensions with Iran. It has raised the urgent question of how Tehran will respond, and stoked fears of a broader conflict. Since 1979, the Islamic Republic has distinguished itself as perhaps
Jan 7, 2020
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Who Is Esmail Qaani, the New Chief Commander of Iran’s Qods Force?
Given the IRGC’s recent restructuring, the Qods Force will likely see more continuity than change under Qaani, though his bureaucratic background is a far cry from Soleimani’s brand of charismatic, risky leadership.
Jan 7, 2020
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  • Ali Alfoneh
Articles & Testimony
Fears of 'What's Next?' Will Influence Iran's—and the World's—Reactions
If the United States signals its readiness to do more militarily while also considering compromise, it could spur other governments to apply more effective collective pressure on Tehran.
Jan 6, 2020
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  • Dennis Ross

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