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Lebanon

Policy Analysis on Lebanon

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Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
Dec 11, 2024
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  • Zohar Palti
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Post October 7—Beaten But Still Dangerous
The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.
Dec 10, 2024
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
Members of the Israeli delegation at the Tripartite Conference in 2006 - source: Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Back to the Future in Lebanon? Ceasefire Lessons from 2006
The former head of Israel’s “tripartite” delegation reflects on the slow-rolling failures that followed the 2006 ceasefire—lessons that can help authorities overcome similar obstacles to the new agreement.
Dec 6, 2024
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  • Assaf Orion
An Israeli border guard secures the gate at a crossing with Lebanon in 2007 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Lebanon Ceasefire: Managing Israeli Public Expectations and U.S. Coordination
In addition to assuaging public fears about the agreement, officials will need to reach a shared understanding with Washington about how to enforce its terms and respond to Hezbollah violations.
Dec 5, 2024
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  • David Makovsky
Photo showing smoke clearing from Beirut during the 2024 Hezbollah-Israel war.
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next
Four experts discuss the agreement’s detailed security provisions, the prospects for successful implementation, and the potential impact on other regional players.
Dec 4, 2024
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  • David Schenker
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt
President Donald Trump meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How the Trump Factor Pushed Israel Towards Lebanon Ceasefire
The Biden White House brokered the deal, but Trump’s return is significantly influencing Binyamin Netanyahu’s actions.
Dec 1, 2024
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  • Dennis Ross
A photo illustration depicts Israeli and Palestinian flags - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
How to End the Third Lebanon War—and Prevent the Fourth
The security arrangements set forth by Resolution 1701 and other past accords need to be beefed up and, more important, enforced—a task that may require an international “action group” willing to operate beyond the Security Council’s limitations.
Oct 29, 2024
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  • Assaf Orion
Photo showing flame and smoke rising over Lebanon's border with Israel.
Articles & Testimony
Taking the War to Hezbollah: What It Might, and Might Not, Achieve
Drawing on lessons from the 2006 war, Israel should focus on strategic outcomes such as better securing its border with Lebanon.
Oct 27, 2024
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  • Matthew Levitt
Secretary of State Antony Blinken
Brief Analysis
How Blinken Can Seize Opportunity After the Deaths of Sinwar and Nasrallah
The United States has a short window to advance crucial goals in Gaza and Lebanon, including efforts to draw in Gulf support, establish a legitimate post-Hamas entity, and urge Beirut to start reasserting its sovereignty.
Oct 22, 2024
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  • David Makovsky
U.S. President Joe Biden greets French President Emmanuel Macron at the White House in December, 2022 - source: White House
Brief Analysis
Assessing U.S.-French Cooperation a Year After October 7
Fighting on several Middle East fronts has revealed gaps between the allies, but they have ample room to collaborate in areas that range from ensuring Lebanese sovereignty to delivering humanitarian aid.
Oct 18, 2024
◆
  • Souhire Medini
Articles & Testimony
The Day After in Lebanon
Absent a policy shift in Beirut, Lebanon will remain a satrapy of Iran, and the current window of opportunity to eradicate the Hezbollah threat will close.
Oct 13, 2024
◆
  • David Schenker
Brief Analysis
A Roadmap to an Enduring Ceasefire in Lebanon
Border security is chiefly a matter of state sovereignty, so the international community must pressure Lebanese officials to take essential political and security steps even before attempting to negotiate ceasefire terms with Israel.
Oct 9, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Brief Analysis
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
Israel’s campaign has greatly diminished Hezbollah, presenting a chance for Beirut to end the war and push back against the group and its Iranian sponsors—if Lebanese elites are up to the task.
Oct 8, 2024
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  • David Schenker
Unarmed UN staff from the United Nations Truce Supervision Organization stand near a Blue Line marker on the Israel-Lebanon borner - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Capitalizing on the Weakening of Hamas and Hezbollah
The massive losses suffered by two key members of Iran’s “axis of resistance” create an opening to transform more than just Gaza and Lebanon.
Oct 8, 2024
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  • Dennis Ross
Secretary of State Antony Blinken places a tile that reads "Light in the darkness" on a wall at the Abrahamic Family House in Abu Dhabi, October 14, 2023.
Video
Brief Analysis
U.S. Policy in the Post-October 7 Middle East: Looking Back, Looking Forward
Three former U.S. officials discuss the challenges—and opportunities—that will greet the next administration in year two of the post-October 7 era.
Oct 7, 2024
◆
  • Dennis Ross
  • Dana Stroul
  • David Schenker
Articles & Testimony
After Hezbollah’s Miscalculations, It Has Lost Much of Its Power
The group’s false assessment of Israel’s wartime fragility is proving more costly by the day.
Oct 1, 2024
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  • Matthew Levitt
Photo of Lebanese Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah onscreen while addressing a 2017 event.
Articles & Testimony
6 Consequences of Israel Killing Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah
By building on the death of an Iran-backed terrorist leader, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on October 8, which is no small achievement.
Sep 30, 2024
◆
  • Robert Satloff
Flowers and a portrait of Hassan Nasrallah at a memorial to the slain Hezbollah leader in Beirut - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
How the Death of Hezbollah’s Nasrallah Brings a Renewed Opportunity for Mideast Peace
Netanyahu must translate Israel’s military achievements in Lebanon into political outcomes while also preventing far-right nationalists in his coalition from defining what is possible with the Palestinians.
Sep 29, 2024
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  • Jeffrey Sonnenfeld
  • Dennis Ross
  • Steven Tian
Nasrallah
Brief Analysis
What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network
Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.
Sep 28, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Men watch as smoke rises after an Israeli bombing of Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon in September 2024 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Israel Dead Set on Beating Hezbollah Back
With prospects low for a near-term diplomatic breakthrough, the Lebanese group can decide how far this conflict escalates.
Sep 27, 2024
◆
  • David Schenker

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
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