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Lebanon

Policy Analysis on Lebanon

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The Mari-B and Tamar gas platforms in the Mediterranean Sea off the coast of Israel - source: The Washington Institute
Brief Analysis
New Gas Licenses Go Ahead on the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Border
Hezbollah’s recent military defeat and the 2022 Israel-Lebanon maritime agreement mediated by Washington have enabled exploration in a distant corner of Israel’s exclusive economic zone.
Mar 24, 2025
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  • Simon Henderson
A United Nations peacepeeker scans the terrain in southern Lebanon - source: Untied Nations
Brief Analysis
Moving Past “Wait and See” in South Lebanon: The U.S.-French Role
The announcement of "working groups" between Israel and Lebanon comes at a key juncture in the ceasefire, and complementary action by the United States and France can facilitate full implementation.
Mar 18, 2025
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  • Souhire Medini
Sunbathers gather on Al-Baida beach in Lebanon - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Trump Should Aim for a “Riviera” in Lebanon
Beirut stands at the goal line of a major win for the Middle East, but only if America quarterbacks the last push.
Mar 3, 2025
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Zohar Palti
KH_Nasrallah Funeral
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Hassan Nasrallah's Funeral: Iraqi Militia Response and Attendance
Most of the top militia leaders appeared too cowed to show up, but a wide assortment of senior Iraqi "resistance" and political figures did attend, including potential future candidates for prime minister.
Feb 27, 2025
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  • Ameer al-Kaabi
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Michael Knights
◆ Militia Spotlight
Photo of Shia women returning to their war-damaged village in south Lebanon.
Video
Brief Analysis
Next Steps in Lebanon: From Ceasefire Extensions to Government Formation
Former military officials and experts from Lebanon and Israel discuss how Beirut’s unsettled political dynamics might affect ongoing implementation of the ceasefire and future peacebuilding efforts.
Feb 14, 2025
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  • Fadi Daoud
  • Makram Rabah
  • Efraim Defrin
  • Assaf Orion
A general view of Lebanon's Government Palace in Beirut, taken in 2023 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s New Government May Walk a Thin Line Between Promises and Compromises
The new cabinet appointments appeared to sideline Hezbollah’s camp, but the group retained control over the crucial Finance Ministry and may find other ways of interfering with security decisions, the reconstruction process, and the next elections.
Feb 12, 2025
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
A local resident walks in front of a sign promoting a USAID-funded project in Hebron - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Trump’s Foreign Assistance Review Prioritizes Funding Over Policy
Cutting aid programs is not inherently wrong—but making those cuts before assessing their specific impact on regional allies and American lives could be disastrous for U.S. policy in the Middle East.
Feb 5, 2025
◆
  • Ben Fishman
Articles & Testimony
How Hezbollah Ends: A Better Lebanon Is Possible
Weakening Hezbollah permanently will be difficult, but for once the goal is attainable—if Beirut has the courage to keep the group out of Lebanon’s coffers and make the army do its job.
Feb 4, 2025
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Map released as part of the November 2024 Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
So Far So Good? The Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Is Largely Holding
The agreement’s implementation phase is going surprisingly well and has been extended, but maintaining the ceasefire will require officials to resolve the issues in dispute and address Hezbollah’s threats.
Jan 28, 2025
◆
  • Assaf Orion
Lebanonese prime minister Nawaf Salam speaks to the press in January 2025 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Lebanon’s New Prime Minister Approaches the Next Crossroads on Hezbollah
Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezbollah.
Jan 21, 2025
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  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Ehud Yaari
Newly elected Lebanese president Joseph Aoun reviews soldiers at the presidential palace in Beirut - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
Will Lebanon’s New Leaders Walk the Walk?
The new president and prime minister do not have a strong track record of confronting Hezbollah, but Washington should still be bold in supporting their stated commitments to reform, disarmament, and economic recovery.
Jan 16, 2025
◆
  • David Schenker
Video
Brief Analysis
Lebanon Ceasefire: Status and Prospects of the Israel-Hezbollah Truce
Watch or read remarks from a former LAF general, the IDF’s former head of strategic planning, and an expert Lebanon analyst during a new series of virtual panels held by The Washington Institute.
Jan 13, 2025
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  • Khalil Helou
  • Tal Kelman
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Articles & Testimony
Lebanon Headed Towards Promised Sovereignty
Choosing a reform-minded president would be a good first step, but absent a concerted effort to consolidate the setbacks to Hezbollah, the organization will simply reassert its murderous grip.
Jan 8, 2025
◆
  • David Schenker
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Fateful Debate in Tehran
After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.
Dec 30, 2024
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Brief Analysis
Don’t Assume Iran’s Supply Lines to Hezbollah Are Cut
Tehran’s past efforts to reconstitute the group have passed through more difficult environments than post-Assad Syria, but an economical U.S.-led effort can complicate future smuggling efforts and further other counterterrorism goals in the process.
Dec 12, 2024
◆
  • Michael Knights
Brief Analysis
Syria Is the First Major Aftershock of October 7—With More to Come?
From stability in Jordan to the future of Kurdish autonomy, Lebanese sovereignty, and Iranian nuclear proliferation, officials must prepare quickly to prevent or manage—and in some cases even encourage—further shocks in the Middle East.
Dec 11, 2024
◆
  • Zohar Palti
Articles & Testimony
Hezbollah Post October 7—Beaten But Still Dangerous
The group has been greatly diminished by a year of war, but the Lebanese people won’t feel the difference unless the international community pushes Beirut and the LAF to reestablish trust and authority.
Dec 10, 2024
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Members of the Israeli delegation at the Tripartite Conference in 2006 - source: Assaf Orion
Brief Analysis
Back to the Future in Lebanon? Ceasefire Lessons from 2006
The former head of Israel’s “tripartite” delegation reflects on the slow-rolling failures that followed the 2006 ceasefire—lessons that can help authorities overcome similar obstacles to the new agreement.
Dec 6, 2024
◆
  • Assaf Orion
An Israeli border guard secures the gate at a crossing with Lebanon in 2007 - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
The Lebanon Ceasefire: Managing Israeli Public Expectations and U.S. Coordination
In addition to assuaging public fears about the agreement, officials will need to reach a shared understanding with Washington about how to enforce its terms and respond to Hezbollah violations.
Dec 5, 2024
◆
  • David Makovsky
Photo showing smoke clearing from Beirut during the 2024 Hezbollah-Israel war.
Video
Brief Analysis
The Hezbollah-Israel Ceasefire and U.S. Leadership: What Comes Next
Four experts discuss the agreement’s detailed security provisions, the prospects for successful implementation, and the potential impact on other regional players.
Dec 4, 2024
◆
  • David Schenker
  • Hanin Ghaddar
  • Assaf Orion
  • Matthew Levitt

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Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics

The Washington Institute's Linda and Tony Rubin Program on Arab Politics focuses on social, political, and economic developments in the Arab world, with an emphasis on the Arab countries of the Levant.

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Featured experts

Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt
Matthew Levitt is the Fromer-Wexler Senior Fellow and director of the Reinhard Program on Counterterrorism and Intelligence at The Washington Institute.
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar
Hanin Ghaddar is the Friedmann Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute's Rubin Family Arab Politics Program, where she focuses on Shia politics throughout the Levant.
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