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Iraq

Policy Analysis on Iraq

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Brief Analysis
Iran and the Gulf:
Can Saddam Drag It In?
The arrival of large numbers of Iraqi planes in Iran is almost certainly another effort by Saddam Hussein to reduce Iraq's isolation and widen the war. As he explained to CNN on January 28, he views Iran as a "fellow Muslim nation" which shares his view of the confrontation as
Jan 29, 1991
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Republican Guard
Iraq's elite Republican Guard -- the best armed and trained unit in the army -- comprises the mainstay of its ground force's offensive capability, and the principal pillar of Saddam Hussein's regime. Republican Guard units in southern Iraq and Kuwait also form the backbone of Iraq's defenses there. Their destruction
Jan 28, 1991
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Assessing Iraq's Al-Husayn Missiles
The launch of more than two dozen Al-Husayn missiles during the opening days of the current war has emphasized the importance of missiles in Iraqi military strategy. Striking military and civilian targets in Israel and Saudi Arabia could pose severe political problems for the United States. Israel could be dragged
Jan 22, 1991
Brief Analysis
The Air Campaign against Iraq:
A Preliminary Assessment
At 2:35 a.m. Baghdad time, allied aircraft initiated the first phase of what will probably be a prolonged and intense air campaign against Iraq. Up to 1000 U.S. and 200 allied combat aircraft may have participated in the initial strike. In all, nearly 1700 allied aircraft are in theater, versus
Jan 17, 1991
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  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
A Quick and Decisive War?
At midnight, the January 15 deadline for Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait will expire without the slightest hint that Saddam Hussein intends to leave. President Bush's "gut instinct" and the conventional wisdom of Washington's experts have both been confounded. Confronted by a massive array of force, Saddam Hussein has not decided
Jan 15, 1991
Brief Analysis
Taking Out Baghdad's Missiles
If the U.S.-led coalition goes to war against Iraq, one of its primary objectives will be the elimination of Iraq's surface-to-surface missiles. However, even a skillfully planned and executed air strike is unlikely to destroy all of Iraq's missiles, which threaten civilian population centers throughout the region and large military
Jan 11, 1991
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Brief Analysis
Negotiating with Iraq:
Changing the Balance of Risks
When Secretary of State James Baker meets Iraqi Foreign Minister Tariq Aziz in Geneva on Wednesday, hope remains that Iraq will finally agree to withdraw from Kuwait. But throughout the Gulf crisis, Western observers have tended to underestimate Saddam Hussein's willingness to go to war and overestimate his willingness to
Jan 8, 1991
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Iraq Deserted
Today's summit meeting between the leaders of Egypt, Syria, Libya, and Sudan highlights an important trend emerging in the Gulf crisis: support in the Arab world for the U.S.-led anti-Iraq coalition is growing, while Iraq finds itself increasingly deserted. Pro-Iraqi demonstrations have dwindled; the cheers for Saddam Hussein have died
Jan 3, 1991
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Prospects for an Iraq-Israel Confrontation
Saddam Hussein's explicit threats against Israel have drawn renewed attention to the prospects for an Iraqi-Israeli confrontation. Though this cannot be ruled out, it seems unlikely that Israel and Iraq will become engaged in hostilities early on in a conflict because neither country would find fighting the other to be
Dec 27, 1990
Brief Analysis
Negotiating in "Good Faith"
In voting for UN Security Council Resolution 681 yesterday, the Bush Administration made its first payoff for passage of Security Resolution 678 authorizing the use of force to oust Saddam Hussein. The Gang of Four -- Cuba, Malaysia, Yemen, and Colombia -- had threatened to hold up Resolution 678 by
Dec 21, 1990
Brief Analysis
The Shevardnadze Resignation: Implications for the Gulf Crisis
Eduard Shevardnadze's dramatic resignation as Soviet foreign minister is bad news for the Gulf crisis: His departure will be welcomed by Saddam Hussein and much-lamented by James Baker. Shevardnadze's Role Since the crisis' first days, when he stood shoulder to shoulder with the Secretary of State to condemn Iraq's invasion
Dec 20, 1990
◆
  • John Hannah
Brief Analysis
Air Power and the Gulf Crisis
How important is air power? This question dominates the current debate about U.S. military options against Iraq, and has a significance for the shape of U.S. forces following the current crisis. Though the military significance of U.S. air power is uncertain, the United States should fully exploit this capability if
Dec 19, 1990
Brief Analysis
Saddam's Strategy:
Turning the U.S. Hedgehog into a Fox?
All observers agree that the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait caught the United States by surprise. By the same token, the U.S. reaction to the invasion was equally, if not more, unexpected by Saddam Hussein. Given the policy of appeasement the Bush Administration pursued toward Iraq prior to August 2, Saddam
Dec 18, 1990
Brief Analysis
Iraq Thinks It Has Already Won
In London a few days ago, Iraqi officials approached two bankers who have previously done business with Baghdad, seeking to arrange future ventures. "But," asked the British financiers, "what about the crisis and the embargo?" "The crisis is already over," replied the Iraqis. And, they insist, Iraq has won. To
Dec 17, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The U.S.-Iraq Talks:
Dealing with Saddam
The upcoming U.S.-Iraq talks on the Gulf crisis pose a real challenge to President Bush and Secretary of State James Baker. Paradoxically, the more eager the United States appears for a peaceful solution to the crisis, the less chance there is of achieving the objective of Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait
Dec 13, 1990
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
The Impact of Sanctions on Iraq
Economic sanctions are making Iraq poorer day by day. The Iraqi economy is being hollowed out. The diet of the Iraqi people has already suffered markedly, with a drop of at least 25 percent in calories consumed. Yet despite all this, it would be wrong to jump to the conclusion
Dec 5, 1990
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  • Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Allies Nervous Over U.S.-Iraq Talks
Much of the Middle East is reacting with anxiety and confusion to President Bush's proposal for top level talks between the United States and Iraq. Whatever rationales Washington has for taking this step, many in the region perceive it as the beginning of U.S. concessions to Saddam Hussein. As soon
Dec 4, 1990
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  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Libya and the Gulf Crisis:
The Strangest Bedfellow
As yesterday's vote in the Security Council again demonstrates, the cohesion of the anti-Iraq coalition is far stronger than most observers had originally predicted. Even Libyan dictator Muammar Qadhafi, the most maverick, anti-Western Arab leader, has been cooperating with the coalition, respecting the UN sanctions against Iraq and calling for
Nov 30, 1990
◆
  • Barry Rubin
Brief Analysis
Iraq's Nuclear Program:
The Key Questions
President Bush and other senior administration officials have focused attention on the threat posed by a nuclear Iraq to America's interests in the Middle East. It is generally agreed that Iraq can develop a sizeable nuclear military capability within the next decade. But the significance of this program in both
Nov 29, 1990
Brief Analysis
Congress and the UN Vote:
Sending a Mixed Signal to Saddam
Thursday's UN Security Council vote authorizing the use of force to effect Iraq's withdrawal from Kuwait constitutes a major step toward war in the Gulf. The effect of the resolution is to deliver an ultimatum to Saddam Hussein: "leave Kuwait by January 15 or else you will soon be forced
Nov 28, 1990

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