Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Has Trump Finally Lost Patience with the Saudis?

Whatever combination of factors spurred the latest withdrawal of U.S. military equipment from the kingdom, the administration is tempting fate given Iran’s ongoing challenges and shifting tactics in the Gulf.

May 8, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Articles & Testimony

Covid-19 and Middle East Proxy Wars: The Storm Before the Calm?

Although the pandemic’s full regional consequences remain murky, some early trends are becoming clear, from caution among certain proxy patrons, to escalation among others, and a looming financial crunch for all.

Apr 29, 2020

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David Pollock

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Eurasian Wager

Many aspects of Iranian engagement with the Eurasian Economic Union seem paltry, but the bloc offers a semblance of assured trade, diplomacy, and counter-Western alignment that could still be meaningful to Tehran amid multiple crises.

Apr 27, 2020

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Kevjn Lim

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Iran's Evolving Approach to Asymmetric Naval Warfare:

Strategy and Capabilities in the Persian Gulf

A military expert offers historical context and present-day specifics on Iran's naval activities in the Gulf, using maps and other graphics to outline its capabilities and intentions during a perilously unstable time.

Apr 24, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran Gets Aggressive in the Northern Gulf Following U.S. Military Exercises

Recent joint drills by the U.S. Navy, Army, and Air Force have essentially challenged Tehran to a game of contested deterrence, spurring its forces to respond with swarm maneuvers and a vessel seizure.

Apr 21, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Pandemic Could Change Iran’s Model of Supreme Leadership Forever

With the IRGC spearheading the containment effort, the clergy shooting itself in the foot, and the regime widening its cyber-repression, Iran is ripe for an evolution in which Khamenei or his successor give way to de facto military rule.

Apr 17, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Video

Brief Analysis

Iran's Coronavirus Crisis: Implications for U.S. Policy

Read or watch an expert conversation on the immediate and long-term effects of the Islamic Republic’s response to the pandemic. How will Iranian politics change? How much aid can Tehran get under sanctions? How will the global economic slowdown affect daily life there?

Apr 16, 2020

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Amir Afkhami
Mehdi Khalaji
Patrick Clawson
Katherine Bauer

Brief Analysis

Don’t Blame the Mossadeq Coup for Iran’s Anti-Americanism

Close analysis of Iranian history textbooks indicates that not even the regime regards the 1953 coup as a seminal event in souring bilateral relations.

Apr 15, 2020

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Jonathan Sameyach

Brief Analysis

Opposing an IMF Loan to Iran: Not an Outlier, Not a Barrier to Aid

Washington often objects to loans that it deems insufficiently rigorous, but its blocking attempts usually fail—and Iran has no need for the funds anyway.

Apr 14, 2020

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Patrick Clawson

Brief Analysis

The Pandemic’s Implications for Iran’s Nuclear Program

Although the leadership in Tehran seems preoccupied with the coronavirus, the international community must still watch out for any attempts to exploit the situation via clandestine nuclear activities.

Apr 14, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Qaani’s Surprise Visit to Baghdad and the Future of the PMF

The commander’s trip was aimed at uniting Shia militias against the United States and domestic political rivals, but facts on the ground show that the post-Soleimani Qods Force is losing its touch in Iraq.

Apr 10, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi
Hamdi Malik

Brief Analysis

Iraq Goes from Zurfi to Kadhimi: U.S. Policy Implications

If Kadhimi’s nomination goes through, it would be good news for Iraq, but Washington’s troubled relationship with Baghdad still needs a radical strategic reset.

Apr 9, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

By Mobilizing to Fight Coronavirus, the IRGC Is Marginalizing the Government

From establishing new provincial headquarters to deploying hundreds of thousands of troops and militia personnel on emergency duty, the Guards are seemingly using the crisis as an opportunity to expand their power at the local level.

Apr 8, 2020

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Saeid Golkar

Brief Analysis

Hezbollah’s Corona Quagmire: An Opportunity to Empower the LAF

Now that Hezbollah realizes its efforts to hide virus cases won’t work anymore, Washington should urge Beirut to put LAF medical and border-control personnel to work without resorting to a full state of emergency.

Mar 31, 2020

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Hanin Ghaddar

Articles & Testimony

Sanctions Relief Isn’t Necessary to Assist Iran’s Coronavirus Response

Washington can facilitate aid without fundamentally altering the sanctions infrastructure, in part by clarifying the rules on allowable humanitarian trade, expanded NGO activities, and Tehran’s existing financial options.

Mar 31, 2020

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Katherine Bauer
Dana Stroul

Articles & Testimony

U.S. Policy in the Middle East Amid Great Power Competition

Viewing regional issues through this broader strategic lens will require Washington to accept painful trade-offs and take a tougher stance with difficult allies.

Mar 30, 2020

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

With COVID-19, Iran’s Dependence on China Grows

Beijing has steadily become Tehran’s economic ventilator, diplomatic prop, and military enabler, and the Iranians need this backstop now more than ever.

Mar 27, 2020

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Kevjn Lim

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Securitizes the Pandemic as the IRGC Mulls Regional Action

With the regime leadership accusing the United States of using bioweapons and fomenting other hateful disinformation, the potential for violence against U.S. forces and interests will likely escalate.

Mar 27, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Khamenei’s Nowruz Speech in a Time of Coronavirus

His remarks focused on inspiring the nation to stay strong in the face of the crisis while refusing to trust U.S. aid, though without mentioning his normal laundry list of foreign policy issues.

Mar 23, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Honored, Not Contained:

The Future of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces

In this detailed Policy Focus, meant as a primer for Iraqi and international agencies, leading scholars examine the current status of Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces.

Mar 23, 2020

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Michael Knights
Hamdi Malik
Aymenn Jawad Al-Tamimi

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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