Iran

Policy Analysis on Iran

Simon Henderson

On Israel-Palestine, Biden Is Not Just Another Version of Obama

A veteran Israeli official explains how the next administration will differ from its predecessors and why immediate consultations between Biden and Netanyahu’s teams are crucial.

Nov 9, 2020

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Michael Herzog

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamanei, gestures while speaking

Brief Analysis

What Does Iran’s Supreme Leader Expect from the Next U.S. President?

Ayatollah Khamenei is wholly focused on preserving the political system he has so painstakingly built, but trends suggest a shaky Iranian future regardless of who wins the U.S. election.

Oct 23, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji

Articles & Testimony

Back into the Shadows? The Future of Kata'ib Hezbollah and Iran's Other Proxies in Iraq

History may be repeating itself as Tehran develops new, smaller, and more secure Iraqi cells reminiscent of the formation of KH itself.

Oct 23, 2020

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Tehran Eyes Lifting of Arms Embargo

The regime senses a major win in the forthcoming move, perceiving an isolated and weakened United States and opportunities for escalation on many fronts.

Oct 16, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Washington Confuses Tactics with Strategy: The Perils of Shuttering the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad

In threatening the closure, the U.S. administration is undermining the reform-minded Iraqi prime minister’s efforts against Iran-backed militias and risking Baghdad’s relationship with Washington.

Oct 9, 2020

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Dana Stroul
Bilal Wahab
Barbara A. Leaf

Video

Brief Analysis

An October Surprise with Iran? Calculations and Policy Implications

Three experts on Iranian politics and strategy assess the possibilities of last-minute dramatic developments between the two adversaries before the U.S. election.

Oct 8, 2020

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Mehdi Khalaji
Ariane Tabatabai
Michael Eisenstadt

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

Protests and Regime Suppression in Post-Revolutionary Iran

Since its formation in 1979, the Islamic Republic has seen multiple cycles of unrest, from ethnic movements in the early 1980s to urban riots in the early 1990s, student protests spanning 1999-2003, the Green Movement response to the 2009 election, and the December 2017-January 2018 upheaval in smaller cities and

Oct 8, 2020

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Saeid Golkar

Brief Analysis

Flare-Up in Nagorno-Karabakh: The Iranian Dimension

New hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan are forcing Tehran to balance domestic demographic concerns and its desire to expand military ties with Yerevan.

Oct 6, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Articles & Testimony

Were Iran and the United States Really ‘On the Brink’? Observations on Gray Zone Conflict

Tehran’s entire modus operandi is designed to pressure Washington and its allies but avoid all-out conflict, and distorting this reality so close to a U.S. election will only hinder an effective policy response.

Sep 27, 2020

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Michael Eisenstadt

Articles & Testimony

UAE-Israel Peace Is Revealing the Middle East’s Faultlines

Much of the commentary surrounding the deal has focused on what it portends for the Palestinian issue and other Israeli relationships, but it may say just as much about the four rival factions that have crystallized in the region since 2011.

Sep 26, 2020

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Sarah Feuer

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, speaking

Brief Analysis

Khamenei Uses Iraq War Anniversary to Reinforce Iranian Steadfastness

Rather than explicitly addressing Washington’s reactivation of sanctions, the Supreme Leader sought to convince domestic listeners that Iran can ‘resist’ external pressures and the latest COVID-19 wave on its own.

Sep 22, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Brief Analysis

Bahrain Move Toward Israel Risks Domestic Reaction

The announcement of a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain suggests that the Gulf island kingdom has reassessed the danger of opposition from both its majority Shia population and its Sunni community.

Sep 11, 2020

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Simon Henderson

Brief Analysis

Russian-Iranian Tensions in Deir al-Zour

To prevent the two rivals from expanding their influence in east Syria, the coalition needs to exploit their simmering disunity, empower its partners on the ground, and establish stronger ties with select tribal and community leaders.

Sep 4, 2020

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Oula A. Alrifai
Ali Alleile

Brief Analysis

Iran Flaunts New Missile and Jet Engine Technology

Although many of the recently unveiled systems are foreign copies or have unproven capabilities, they show a substantial indigenous development capacity that will only accelerate once the UN ban on weapons sales is lifted—even if past sanctions snap back into action.

Aug 28, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Maps & Graphics

In-Depth Reports

The IRGC Lifts Off:

Implications of Iran's Satellite Launch

In April 2020, the IRGC launched its first domestically made satellite, the Nour-1, into orbit. The launch showed the risks of lifting arms restrictions on Iran, a move supported by potential weapons trade partners Russia and China but vehemently opposed by the United States. Ending the embargo could facilitate Tehran’s

Aug 27, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Iran’s Cautious Response to Washington’s Snapback Threat

Instead of playing hardball, the entire regime is seemingly embracing the more prudent approach of disregarding the U.S. threat and exploiting the resultant diplomatic clash for political gains.

Aug 21, 2020

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Omer Carmi

Articles & Testimony

Conflict with Small Powers Derails U.S. Foreign Policy: The Case for Strategic Discipline

Although containing or deterring minor powers can help shape the behavior of great powers, conflicts with these smaller foes have proliferated in the twenty-first century, tying down resources and attention needed elsewhere.

Aug 12, 2020

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Michael Singh

Brief Analysis

Iran Applies Maximum Power to Annual IRGC Naval Exercise

Coming soon after Western naval redeployments in the Gulf and explosions at sensitive Iranian sites, the recent drills illustrate the regime’s eagerness to reassert its deterrence by showing off new weapons and capabilities.

Aug 10, 2020

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Farzin Nadimi

Video

Brief Analysis

Mapping Hezbollah's Worldwide Activities

Three current and former U.S. officials discuss a powerful new interactive tool and its implications for mobilizing international pressure on Hezbollah and its enablers.

Aug 5, 2020

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Matthew Levitt
Kash Patel
Juan Zarate

Supported by the

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

Today, the Islamic Republic of Iran poses the most serious and urgent set of security challenges to the United States and its allies in the greater Middle East. Since the Khomeini revolution in 1979, Iran has sought to export its radical ideology through the use of terrorism, subversion, and support to ideological fellow-travelers throughout the Muslim world.

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Featured experts

Farzin Nadimi

Farzin Nadimi, a Senior Fellow with The Washington Institute, is a Washington-based analyst specializing in the security and defense affairs of Iran and the Persian Gulf region.

Patrick Clawson

Patrick Clawson is the Morningstar Senior Fellow and Research Counselor at The Washington Institute.

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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Policy Analysis on Iran

Viterbi Program on Iran and U.S. Policy

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