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All Policy Analysis by Patrick Clawson
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Brief Analysis
Renewing the Iran Sanctions Waivers (Part 1): Nuclear Activities
Neither blanket extension nor wholesale cancellation is the best course, but several of the expiring waivers would serve U.S. interests if properly—and publicly—revised.
Apr 22, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Articles & Testimony
IRGC Designation: From Visas to Symbolic Effects
The practical effects may be limited to minor issues such as visa regulations, while the symbolic implications are not in Tehran's favor.
Apr 8, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Apr 1, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Most Important Speech of the Year in Iran: Hostile to the West, No Concessions at Home
Historically a reliable indicator of Khamenei’s thinking, the Supreme Leader’s annual Mashhad address focused mainly on foreign policy, especially why the West should not be trusted, along with his usual call for Iran to develop its non-oil economy.
Mar 26, 2019
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Economy Is Stagnating Even Before New U.S. Sanctions Hit
The impact of imminent sanctions will be magnified by the economy’s recent struggles, and Tehran’s bad financial policies will only make matters worse.
Oct 29, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Oct 4, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Response to Sanctions? Ignore Them
The current Iranian narrative—that economic problems stem from domestic mistakes rather than foreign pressure—complicates the U.S. policy of using sanctions to force change.
Aug 29, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Aug 3, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Toward a New U.S. Policy in Syria
Ground Zero for Countering Iran and Deterring an Islamic State Revival
Today, Syria is the sole battlefield in the world where American, Russian, Turkish, Iranian, and Israeli military forces all operate, along with a kaleidoscope of proxy actors foreign and domestic. As the preeminent arena of strategic competition in the Middle East and a wellspring of potential Islamic State resurgence, Syria
Jul 10, 2018
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Katherine Bauer
Soner Cagaptay
Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
James Jeffrey
Barbara A. Leaf
Matthew Levitt
Dennis Ross
Robert Satloff
Brief Analysis
Iran’s Vulnerabilities to U.S. Sanctions (Part 1): Finding the Weak Spots
The regime’s most vulnerable point is its precarious banking system, whose persistent mismanagement, capital shortfalls, and lack of transparency have already sparked public protests.
Jun 14, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Brief Analysis
The JCPOA Decision: Managing Reactions, Evaluating Sanctions
An expert panel assesses sanctions and the future of U.S. Iran strategy in light of the Trump administration's exit from the nuclear deal.
May 18, 2018
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Katherine Bauer
Patrick Clawson
Michael Singh
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Patrick Clawson’s Comment on Firas Elias "Is Iran close to a major war in Syria?"
Firas Elias is precisely correct that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is well poised to play a more prominent role in Iranian politics. And he is unfortunately right that this development may well lead to a war, but that would happen for the exact opposite reasons of what he predicts
May 11, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
May 8, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
In-Depth Reports
Tactical Issues Surrounding a U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Agreement
President Trump has long signaled his distaste for the JCPOA. He warned in January that absent improvements to the Iran nuclear agreement, he might decide by the May 12 deadline not to extend the sanctions waivers, effectively withdrawing the United States from the deal. In reality, however, reimposing sanctions is
Apr 15, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
The Most Important Speech of the Year in Iran
The Supreme Leader's latest Nowruz speech signaled concern about the regime's political legitimacy while remaining notably silent on the nuclear deal.
Apr 5, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Mismanagement Leaves Iran's Economy Vulnerable
Findings from a new IMF report imply that greater U.S. pressure would have considerable impact on the country's shock-prone economy.
Mar 30, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Brief Analysis
Expect Assad, Iran, and Russia to Exploit Trump's Cabinet Changes
The regime and its allies will probably try to peel away U.S. partners or take military action in vulnerable areas, so Washington should prepare to counter such efforts.
Mar 19, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Video
Middle East FAQs Volume 1: What is the Shia Crescent?
Institute experts Patrick Clawson, Hanin Ghaddar, and Nader Uskowi discuss Iran's growing influence from the Persian Gulf to the Mediterranean and beyond.
Jan 17, 2018
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Patrick Clawson
Hanin Ghaddar
Nader Uskowi
Video
Brief Analysis
Protests in Iran: Why? What Impact? How Should the U.S. Respond?
Washington Institute experts discuss the economic, social, diplomatic, and military implications of the anti-regime demonstrations sweeping Iran. Read a summary or watch video of the full event.
Jan 8, 2018
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Michael Singh
Patrick Clawson
Michael Eisenstadt
Hanin Ghaddar
Mehdi Khalaji
Brief Analysis
December 13 Is an Iranian Nuclear Trifecta
As more congressional deadlines and international meetings pass with no robust efforts to address the JCPOA's flaws, the chances of the Trump administration terminating the deal grow.
Dec 12, 2017
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Patrick Clawson
Pagination
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