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سیاست خارجی ایران

Policy Analysis on سیاست خارجی ایران

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An F35A fighter on a night-training mission at dusk
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Attacking Iran's Nuclear Program:
The Complex Calculus of Preventive Action
Should a negotiated deal prove elusive, policymakers will need to consider how to define a successful strike, Iran’s potential responses, and whether a strategy of prevention can be sustained.
۱۱ مارس ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Michael Eisenstadt
Cover for Iran Transition Note, with images of a pen with U.S. flag, a B-52 bomber, nuclear symbols, and Iranian flag + map.
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
Policy Steps to Prevent a Nuclear Iran
Rather than choosing between diplomacy and military action, the Trump administration should think of these options as mutually supportive, sequencing its actions in hopes of achieving the best and least costly outcome.
۲۸ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۵
◆
  • Michael Singh
◆ Transition Notes 2025
Iran's president-elect Pezeshkian speaks in Tehran - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
A Fateful Debate in Tehran
After blows to Iranian proxies across the region, reformists led by President Pezeshkian are prioritizing diplomacy and economic recovery, whereas hardliners are lamenting lost battlefield opportunities and seeking to preserve the regime.
۳۰ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
Articles & Testimony
The Current and Future Houthi Threat to the Middle East
An effective response to the group's persistent aggression should include strengthening the United Nations verification and inspection mechanism, preparing sanctions against actors who violate UN resolutions, and taking steps to interdict arms transfers.
۲۹ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
Security forces the Iraqi-Syrian border, after it has been reopened for trade and travel, in Al Qaim, Iraq in 2019 - source: Reuters
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
Nujaba Projects Paranoia Over Domestic Security
Nujaba's immediate allergic reaction to regime change in Syria is a bellwether of how vulnerable Coordination Framework militias feel as pro-Iran hierarchies come tumbling down.
۱۶ دسامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hamdi Malik
  • Ameer al-Kaabi
◆ Militia Spotlight
A banner in Gaza depicts the new Hamas leader, Yahya al-Sinwar - source: Reuters
Brief Analysis
How Sinwar’s Death Could Change the War
The demise of the Hamas leader and October 7 plotter could create significant diplomatic opportunities for Israel and the United States.
۱۷ اکتبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Ghaith al-Omari
  • Neomi Neumann
Nasrallah
Brief Analysis
What Nasrallah’s Death Could Mean for the Hezbollah Network
Iran’s proxy faces steep challenges on the leadership and military fronts, and the international community can now act vigorously to free Lebanon from its grip.
۲۸ سپتامبر ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Hanin Ghaddar
Rocket truck used to attack US forces at Al-Asad, Iraq, Aug 5, 2024
Maps & Graphics
Brief Analysis
What to Make of Recent Attacks on Coalition Bases in Iraq and Syria?
The strikes are not yet numerous enough to form a definitive pattern, but they probably reflect deep militia divisions over whether to renew anti-coalition attacks in earnest amid the Gaza war.
۵ اوت ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Michael Knights
  • Crispin Smith
◆ Militia Spotlight
"Holy Shrine Defenders" at Sayyid Zainab Mosque, Damascus
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran’s Evolving Strategy in Eastern Syria
The Iranian model of creating and supporting proxy groups is consistent across the “Shia Crescent,” but recently Tehran has begun employing new and troubling tactics that threaten to only expand their influence.
۱۸ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Omar Abu Layla
KRI President Nechirvan Barzani
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Breaking the Ice: Erbil-Tehran Relations after Barzani’s Visit
Although many in Erbil lament Iran’s significant influence in Iraq, President Barzani now seems open to leveraging its power to address the KRI’s election dispute.
۱۷ ژوئن ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • İdris Okuducu
Police Parade in Tehran
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Navigating Cybersecurity and Surveillance: Iran's Dual Strategy for National Security
While Iranian officials acknowledge the significance of cyber tools and AI for foreign policy, they are acutely aware of the country’s financial and scientific limitations.
۲۹ مارس ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Nima Khorrami
Israeli flag, Hezbollah flag, implied Lebanon border
Maps & Graphics
گزارش‌های تفصیلی
تقویت دیپلماسی آمریکا برای جلوگیری از جنگ بین حزب‌الله و اسرائیل
تنها یک ابتکار جامع با هدف محدود کردن نفوذ حزب‌الله در لبنان و منطقه، فرصتی برای برقراری صلح بلندمدت را به دنبال خواهد داشت.
۲۷ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • حنین غدار
Yemen's Houthis in formation.
Articles & Testimony
How Washington Emboldened the Houthis
Greater decisiveness would have shortened the conflict, lessened the toll on global maritime trade, and reassured U.S. partners in the region and beyond.
۶ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Noam Raydan
  • Grant Rumley
Articles & Testimony
Iran’s Militant Empire in the Middle East
The more the Islamic Republic and its proxy groups escalate with the United States and Israel, the greater the risks for a misstep.
۲ فوریهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
General Abdel Fattah Abdelrahman Burhan
Fikra Forum
Fikra Forum
Iran in Sudan: Fears of a Sudanese Popular Mobilization Forces
Given the ways in which Iranian influence has grown elsewhere in the region, there are fears that the Sudanese army, with its Islamist orientation, will morph into a militia group similar to the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, ultimately exerting Iran’s will in exchange for funding and military support.
۳۱ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • Areej Elhag
تحلیل کوتاه
مرگ یک رهبر حماس در بیروت
صالح العاروری دهه‌ها به عنوان یک عضو ارشد عملیاتی به حماس خدمت می‌کرد، و از دست دادن او چالش‌هایی برای حماس و نیز حزب‌الله ایجاد خواهد کرد.
۱۲ ژانویهٔ ۲۰۲۴
◆
  • حنین غدار
  • ماتیو لویت
Houthis parade through Sanaa to mark anniversary of coup, September 2023
Maps & Graphics
In-Depth Reports
An Heir and a Spare?
How Yemen’s “Southern Hezbollah” Could Change Iran’s Deterrent Calculus
Houthi militant activity during the Hamas-Israel war should challenge the perception that the group has a mere “marriage of convenience” with Tehran.
۱۲ دسامبر ۲۰۲۳
◆
  • Michael Knights
Protesters hold Syrian and Hezbollah flags
Brief Analysis
Assessing the Reported Pantsir Delivery to Hezbollah
The antiaircraft system poses a manageable risk to Israeli operations along its northern border, but Washington must show Moscow and its associates that any benefits to such escalation are not worth the costs.
۳ نوامبر ۲۰۲۳
◆
  • Andrew J. Tabler
  • Anna Borshchevskaya
A man carries Iranian and Palestinian flags at a pro-Hamas rally in Tehran in October 2023 - source: Reuters
Articles & Testimony
Beyond Gaza, the Confrontation with Iran
By supporting Hamas’s operation, the Islamic Republic managed to subvert a broad emerging Arab-Israel partnership—but Israeli success in destroying the group’s military capabilities could turn the tables.
۲۶ اکتبر ۲۰۲۳
◆
  • Ehud Yaari
تحلیل کوتاه
جلوگیری از تشدید و گسترش جنگ غزه از طرف «محور مقاومت» ایران
آمریکا باید بر خطراتی که گسترش جنگ دربر دارد تأکید کند و تهران را به مهار نیروهای نیابتی و شرکایش ترغیب کند.
۲۶ اکتبر ۲۰۲۳
◆
  • مایکل آیزنستات
  • مایکل نایتز

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