نظامی و امنیتی

Policy Analysis on نظامی و امنیتی

The Great Middle Eastern War of 2019

Far from simply replaying the 2006 Lebanon war, the next conflict on Israel’s northern frontier will likely involve many more actors on multiple fronts, raising unprecedented challenges for escalation management.

۲۰ اوت ۲۰۱۸

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Nadav Ben Hour
Michael Eisenstadt

A man manipulates cables on a bank of internet data servers - source: Reuters

Brief Analysis

Iran's Passive Defense Organization: Another Target for Sanctions

Despite its nominal defense role, the NPDO has helped the regime repress citizens online, a function that Washington should counter with sanctions.

۱۶ اوت ۲۰۱۸

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Farzin Nadimi

Brief Analysis

Setting Limits on the Saudi Air Campaign in Yemen

The United States can greatly reduce civilian deaths by asking the Saudis to cease non-battlefield airstrikes in return for greater U.S. support on defensive arrangements.

۱۶ اوت ۲۰۱۸

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Michael Knights

Brief Analysis

Women, Minorities, and Military Aid to Egypt

As the next deadline for FMF disbursement approaches, the administration should remember that U.S. law requires it to consider Cairo’s recent track record on human rights.

۹ اوت ۲۰۱۸

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Amy Austin Holmes

تحلیل کوتاه

مهار حملات حوثی‌ها به کشتی‌های غیرنظامی در باب‌المندب

حمله اخیر شورشیان تحت حمایت ایران به نفت‌کش‌ها، نیاز به کنترل مجدد تمامی ساحل دریای سرخ را از طرف دولت یمن، که از سوی جامعه بین‌المللی به رسمیت شناخته می‌شود، برجسته می‌کند.

۲۷ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸

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مایکل نایتز
فرزین ندیمی

Brief Analysis

Managing Escalation in Gaza (Part 2): Breaking the Dynamic

Ending the cycle of violence will require not only tactical, strategic, and economic solutions, but also a host of ‘middle layer’ steps, from reducing military friction and establishing reliable channels of communication between the sides, to controlling the actions of other Gaza militant groups.

۲۷ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Nadav Ben Hour

Brief Analysis

Managing Escalation in Gaza (Part 1): Lessons from Operation Protective Edge

The 2014 conflict showed how escalatory dynamics can quickly lead two adversaries into full-blown fighting even when neither side actually wants a war.

۲۶ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Nadav Ben Hour

Articles & Testimony

Military Is Fourth Party Shaping Pakistan’s Elections, and Future

Foreign policy, defense policy, and the lion’s share of the national budget remain in the army’s hands, giving it major sway over politics.

۲۵ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Simon Henderson

تحلیل کوتاه

ایران بار دیگر بر سر چهارراهی استراتژیک قرار گرفته است

از آن‌جا که راهبردِ رژیم در رویارویی با دستگاهِ دولت ترامپ همچنان نااستوار است، آیا سیاستِ سنتی دومرحله‌ای آن، یعنی آشوب‌انگیزی و خویشتن‌داری، اوضاع را بدتر نخواهد کرد؟

۲۵ ژوئیهٔ ۲۰۱۸

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عمر کرمی

Brief Analysis

Putin’s Golan Comments: Implications for Israeli Security

Moscow has seemingly reaffirmed Israel’s right to keep Iranian forces away from the Golan frontier, but it is unclear whether Assad’s southern offensive will actually help or hinder that goal in the long term.

۱۹ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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David Makovsky

Brief Analysis

Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 2): Shaping Tehran’s Response

Tehran will likely resort to measured countermoves in the nuclear domain at first, but successful U.S. pressure could spur it to challenge JCPOA limits, take action in non-nuclear domains, or push back against U.S. and allied forces.

۱۷ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Michael Eisenstadt

Brief Analysis

Iran After the JCPOA Withdrawal (Part 1): Lessons from Past Pressure Campaigns

Tehran has generally responded to pressure by issuing threats, ramping up its nuclear activities, accepting temporary limits, and, when the heat is turned up, launching cyber, military, and terrorist operations.

۱۶ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Michael Eisenstadt

Video

Getting Syria Right at the Trump-Putin Summit

Keeping U.S. troops in place is critical to our national security, but American interests don't require the large-scale, long-term ground force that many fear.

۱۳ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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James Jeffrey
Barbara A. Leaf
Dennis Ross

Multimedia

Brief Analysis

Taking Stock of U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts Since 9/11

The director of strategic operational planning at the National Counterterrorism Center discusses the general state of U.S. CT efforts, the persistence of the threat, and the need to focus on nonkinetic prevention methods.

۱۰ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Michael Nagata

◆ Counterterrorism Lecture Series

Brief Analysis

Haftar's Play for Libyan Oil

To preserve Libyan unity, the United States should threaten to block any oil shipments not authorized by the country's internationally recognized government.

۳ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Ben Fishman

Brief Analysis

The Problem of Landmine Proliferation in Yemen

The United States should take the lead in preventing the spread of landmine use beyond the Arabian Peninsula, thereby upholding decades of norm-building efforts.

۳ ژوئیه ۲۰۱۸

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Elana DeLozier

Brief Analysis

Accepting Regime Forces in South Syria Will Only Further Iran’s Goals

Whether openly or in disguise, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies are deploying to the south in large numbers, greatly increasing the potential for cross-border escalation.

۲۹ ژوئن ۲۰۱۸

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Hanin Ghaddar
Phillip Smyth

Brief Analysis

Erdogan's Victory Could Actually Improve U.S.-Turkish Relations

Turkey’s decisive election results and shaky geopolitical situation could make it more amenable to addressing U.S. concerns about Russian weapons sales, Iranian adventurism, and other key security issues.

۲۷ ژوئن ۲۰۱۸

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James Jeffrey

What Would Happen If Russia Flipped Egypt?

An expert on Russian foreign policy explains how even a partial Cairo-Moscow alliance on specific security and energy issues could be inimical to U.S. interests.

۲۶ ژوئن ۲۰۱۸

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Articles & Testimony

Could Russia Flip Egypt?

For too long, U.S. policymakers have tailored their approach toward Cairo as if Washington were the only player in the sandbox.

۲۱ ژوئن ۲۰۱۸

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Anna Borshchevskaya

Supported by the

Military and Security Studies Program

The Washington Institute's Military and Security Studies Program has established itself as an unrivaled source of reliable, incisive, and forward-looking analysis concerning several of the most critical national-security challenges facing the United States today: The U.S. military role in the Middle East, Iran's nuclear program and its proxy armies, the ongoing conflict is in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen, the regional proliferation of missiles and weapons of mass destruction, the security dimensions of the Arab-Israeli conflict, and many other security issues on the frontline of the U.S. policymaking agenda.

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مایکل آیزنستات

مایکل آیزنستات هموند دیوید کان و داگلاس کان و مدیر برنامه مطالعات امنیتی و نظامی انستیو واشنگتن است.

گرانت راملی

گرانت راملی هموند ارشد انستیتو واشنگتن و مشاور سابق سیاست‌گذاری خاورمیانه در دفتر وزیر دفاع است.

Elizabeth Dent

Elizabeth Dent is the Nathan and Esther K. Wagner Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, where she focuses on U.S. foreign and defense policy toward the Gulf states, Iraq, and Syria.

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